Wednesday NCAA Hoops

Cornell at Umass

While looking through the potential games last night I had figured that Cornell would be about a 1 point favorite just b/c of the Umass name. Problem is, I made the game Cornell -9, so I knew I'd be on it instantly. I might as well bring up experience here again. They return everyone. They are discipline, they are deep, they are fresh. They didn't even show their regular starters in the win at Alabama, and were short a few players b/c of a pregame injury and matchups. They have everyone tonight. The win at Alabama against their defensive style should open eyes. They controlled the entire game, and they should control it tonight. I don't normally lay points on the road like this this early in the season but I think this spot warrants a play not only on Cornell b/c of their experience and being a good team, but as a fade on UMASS as well. First off, they're young, which showed in their opening game loss at Central Florida by 17. Secondly, I was able to catch a small portion of that game and the defensive style has not changed. They cannot guard anyone, and Central Florida is in no way shape or form comparable to Cornell's discipline on the offensive side of the ball. Ricky Harris is obviously a concern, but he's not the best player on the court tonight. I'd argue that Wittman and Foote are better. The biggest problem with UMASS's style of play is what I like to call the AASAA (attack, attack, skip, attack, attack) style of offense. It's predicated on either a) getting a layup, or b) getting a 3 pointer. It looks at game of basketball percentages and takes the medium range jumper out of the equation. The offense can be compared to a Memphis under Calipari type of play. The problem is, this team is young and are not even close to having it mastered yet. You don't attempt 38 three-pointers in this style of offense, and if you do, you'd better hit 50% or better or you're going to lose. You see, in the AASAA offense, you have to get to the hoop, you have to attack and kick it out, or attack and score, and with limited depth and a non-experience PG (especially one that is a score-first point guard), it simply isn't going to work against a disciplined and experienced defense in Cornell. This is the exact same Cornell team that played 30 minutes point for point with Mizzou in the tourney last year, a similar style offense, yet 80x better. Another thing on this AASAA style of offense that UMASS is operating, they don't have the personnel. You need good shooters, they have 1, who will be accounted for all game (Harris). You need good bigs. Yes, UMASS received two big men transfers from Oregon State and Memphis I do believe, but one steps in at 275. How do you slash and attack and skip when the lane's clogged? What's the point of slashing and attacking when you get to the foul line and aren't one of the best FT shooting teams in your conference? It's exactly what Cornell did against Missouri. They forced Missouri to hit shots from the outside and packed it in the lane. It just so happens that it worked for 30 minutes and Mizzou got hot the last 10. I'm sorry for all the comparison's to Missouri, just trying to explain they style of offense, minus the press defense. Experience is key here. Cornell knew they were going to be good this year. It's part of the reason they start off with Alabama, Umass, Seton Hall, and Syracuse, before repeating for a 3rd Ivy League title. It's not normal for me to take an Ivy League game, nor take a favorite on the road, but I knew there would be positions early in the year for this squad to make some noise, and this is one of them. If they lose, it's b/c Umass goes off from long distance, and that's why I'll take my chances. 

Utah State at Utah

Well, looking at Utah State's schedule, this is probably the only time they are dogged this year unless they're a dog at Nevada later in the year, that's where I see the value. Utah this year is looking to run-run-run-run a lot more than in year's past and I'm sure Stew Morrill will be quick to slow the tempo as he always does. This is more a thing on coaching. I just don't see the system consistency or discipline from Boylen (rarely ever have), and the new system obviously doesn't account for playing defense, as witnessed in Idaho's 94 point outburst the other night. Carlon Brown is a sick athlete, but Utah State has the better team and if you're going to give me a dog with more experience, better defense, better coaching, and a more balanced offense, then I'll bite, b/c this team will rarely be an underdog, if at all, the rest of the year. Wish I could say more, but it's evident that this Utah team just doesn't have enough experience this early in the season or take care of the ball enough to implement a run and gun style offense against one of the smartest coaches in the Industry - Stew.

2* Utah State +3 

It was evident last night that Valdez meant a lot to Western Kentucky down the stretch in ball games. And I backed off Long Beach State and probably shouldn't have - Pepperdine is bad. Brown's got two games under their belt. Rhode Island doesn't have a single game, and lost their top two scorers I believe. UIC and CMU are both young and learning. CMU should be top of the MAC once again, but UIC is athletic. Neither team has a force in the paint. Toledo's awful. I can't find anything now but I stumbled across something that said Singletary was out tonight for Kent State, but i've seen no line movement and can't find where I saw it so take that with a grain of salt. I know he had been hurt the past few weeks, but played through the injury. I could be 100% completely wrong. Not sure how Northwestern looks with all the injuries, but my guess is it will be ugly. Those who watch the Nebraska/STL game are in for a boring game, fact. A lot of talent in Nevada/UNLV, not worth it. Loyola Marymount is a MUCH different squad this year. Davis comes in from Seton Hall I think it was, and they also had a big man transfer in from Oregon. Think LMU came out of this past tourney 1-2, but was in every game to the final whistle. Texas and Duke are my picks to click to be the final two teams standing come March, with Texas winning the title, that is, unless Brandon Paul keeps putting up performances for the Illini like he did last night 

GL