Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 59-43, +58.40
February Leans: 55-46
Running short on time which is why some of these have a little less info than others…
I’m playing Tulane. If you remember the analysis from the Delaware/UNC Wilmington match-up, Buzz Peterson is the type of coach who thrives on sagging help defenses as he’s an offensive mastermind. Bring in Ed Conroy. Same type of guy. And a big reason why Tulane posted such a high offensive total in the first meeting this year. The offense just simply is not good, but if you give them open shots, they’re going to fall. This is a revenge spot for Houston, but an ugly one at best. They’re coming off snail SMU, into a faster Tulane team than they seen the first time around, and they also have in-state rival Rice on tap. Tulane sucks something fierce on the road (only win is at Navy and Texas Pan American lol). I don’t care. If they get chances tonight to score (and they should have plenty) I value that and a better defense in this spot much better. Houston offense has looked non-existent against teams that pressure the guards well. If they beat me from the perimeter, OK with that. Tulane’s been much faster with the injuries, and the offense has benefited from it. And that’s exactly what I want going into this game, tonight. It doesn’t show against the Marshall’s, and UTEP’s, and Memphis or any of their recent results because there is simply no comparison to how those teams and a greater majority of the teams from C-USA defend to how Houston defends.
5* Tulane +2
Really interesting game between Liberty and Charleston Southern. A couple upsets early already today, and I think it is entirely possible for Liberty to win this game, but I’m pointing to the total going over instead as I think there is a bit more value. First, the adrenaline of getting the chance to play UNC Asheville should push this pace a bit faster than each would like, but not only that, the match-ups and scheme’s of how each prepare should cause a pretty hectic pace as well. These two split in the regular season, but I’d peg Charleston Southern with the immediate revenge as Liberty hit a buzzer beater to win the most recent game. Back to the scheme, Charleston Southern gets after it defensively, and I’d probably relate it to a style that mirrors Depaul, only they can shoot as well. They pressure in most instances in the full court, they force a ton of turnovers, and in return, they can score off of them. When they can’t score in transition, they have enough weapons in the half court to make a difference and anyone can score. They’re a balanced team that relies on everyone being on the same page and they’ve put up some high point totals even in low possession games, which is what I like in case this gets slowed down. Again, this team likes to push it, and they’ll shoot a ton of three’s. They’re tiny (tallest player is 6’6”), and at times, they will throw 5 guards on the court and let them beat you on the inside. They don’t care. They feel like they can turn you over and distract you enough defensively that the easy buckets won’t make a difference. It’s been a staple of Radebaugh’s scheme throughout his current tenure. He’s just doing it a bit more this year b/c he doesn’t have a bigger lineup to go with. Now, with Liberty, they had a few injuries occur before the season that really threw a wrench in things as they lost their post players and they struggled early on in the season b/c of it. Layer’s been an up and down coach, in fact, this is the slowest pace team he has had at Liberty. They’ve played a handful of really, extremely, lathargicly low games this year against teams like Richmond, Presbyterian, Gardner Webb, and Campbell. All of those games fell below the 60 possession mark. Three of them run a modified Princeton, and the most recent game with Campbell (a 49-41 victory) only hit 53 possessions. It’s certainly alarming that Liberty comes into this game having played their best two defensive games of the season, and a couple of the slowest, but those games were at home, and what exactly have you seen from Coastal Carolina and Campbell in today’s games to think anything different? Neither of the teams pressure all that well, in fact, they don’t pressure anywhere near the way that Charleston Southern will. They could run their offensive zone sets and slow the game down against both of those teams. Actually, they had to, b/c they had matchup advantages as well and they don’t shoot it all that great against zones and taller teams. As far as an offensive style for Liberty, they run a ton of set plays, and look to get the ball inside as much as they can even though they’re guard oriented, and they score a ton from the inside. They have a few shooters on the outside having below average years. Going back to this tourney, the first two games both teams that won are horrendous at shooting from the outside and they hit an unreal # of three’s. So, in the grand scheme of things, I don’t think either team is concerned with slowing the tempo tonight. There will be seven, sometimes eight, sometimes nine guards on the court at a time...
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