There are two games on the Summit League schedule to day. These are the semi-final rounds with the winners going on to fight for the automatic birth to the big dance. The lines have not yet been released but I will give my impressions the same and suggest a line for both games. I will discuss them in the order of when they play starting first with WIU vs. OR:
This game really interests me because I honestly think that WIU can win straight up against OR. I took WIU +4 yesterday and they won straight up and I am pretty sure I will be taking the points in this game too. I project the line at OR -8.
Lets talk motivation for a second. OR likely has an at-large bid given that their current RPI is 39. You cannot say the same about any other team in the entire conference (SDSU is 57 but I don't think they get an at-large bid no matter what). Therefore, as shown against a really bad IPFW team it does not seem like OR has the motivation to cover a big spread when the other team will be clawing for every point they can get.
WIU has a very good defense. They have the reining two-time conference defensive player of the year. He will be guarding the conference player of the year for OR. I don't think he will shut him down but I think that he will make him earn every point possible. Plus Dominique Morrison had a really forgetable game against IPFW on Saturday so I don't know if his head is not screwed on right but he will be pressing this game and frustrated.
The last game against WUI he shot 5/14, 4 fouls and 17 points. The prior game he did play better and shot 9/17, 3 fouls and 27 points. However, this prior game WUI decided to get into a track meet with OR and lost that game 71-70. I really don't think you will see a game like this tonight as they will slow it down, use the clock, set up for a high percentage shot, or try to draw a foul.
Additionally, due to the style of play and defense WUI doesn't get blown out very often. They have only lost by more than 10 points give times this year (three in conference and two out of conference). They also only lost by 4 at Michigan earlier this season in a very low scoring game.
In the past six matchups the following has been the results:
61-51 OR; 71-70 OR; 69-57 OR; 71-58 OR; 74-62 OR; and 64-62 WUI. However, WUI is 4-1-1 against the spread during this six matchups.
I am setting the line at -8 to -9.5 somewhere in that range. I don't think that the line makers are going to give another doubl digit spread for OR the rest of this tournament and for good reason. As everyone knows Oakland got upset last night and I could easily see it with WUI today too. They looked real hungry against NDSU who did give it their all too.
I have not comment on the first half but I always lean under with this team no matter what given their style. I will be back shortly with the SDSU thoughts. Once the lines are released I will also post my actual plays.
... true!
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