WHY ARE SO MANY ON NORTHWESTERN???

I see several good cappers in here on Northwestern... am I missing something here? 

FAU is one of my POD... the others are Duke and Clemson

Leans for today... Auburn, BAMA, Baylor, Clemson, Tex A&M, WKY, UAB, James Madison, Florida, UCONN, Purdue, Houston and St Marys

Yes, lots of chalk today. 

Northwestern is a good team and Boo Bouie is ridiculous.   I circled that game and bet it way too early.  I thought the line would be moving the other way.  I am very interested to see how that one goes.  

Superior Scheduled Defense..

@Wizerguy

Do you really believe SOS matters? Are you saying NW has better defense? 

I think the better play might be the under since I'm on the fence for a side

FAU isn’t as good as last year.  

Northwestern has no depth and little to compliment Buie.  They have Boo Buie and the band of jags.  They desperately need Langborg is come alive.  Injuries hit them pretty bad.  Matthew Nicholson went down 3/2 and is out for the tournament.  He was a very solid defensive interior presence.  Without him they’re starting Luke Hunger whos for lack of a better term, awful.  They’re going to have to double Goldin which is going to leave a lot of shooters wide open.  Northwesten is well coached and has a star so crazier things have happened.  But injuries really sapped the potential of this team.  With Berry and Nicholson they had a very well rounded club.  Now they’re being forced to go deep into scrubs for rotational minutes.  

FAU has moved from -2.5 to -4.5

That's a pretty big move.

Now I'm questioning my FAU play.

I'm on FAU BIG at -4...we shouldn't see the same regular season team in the first couple games of tourny....I could be wrong, but FAU should win by a comfortable double digits here

Dusty May will NOT be coaching FAU next season.

He undoubtedly wants to win in this tourney AND he is playing for his next contract which will no doubt will be Top 6 highest paid coaches contract. The deeper FAU goes, the bigger the contract and a first round loss would slow the hype..

NW injuries will make it tough on them. Better games to wager and delta on this game says "no play".

FAU very overrated but NW injuries are a no play for me.

Fau is not at home today. 

why not 

@CCYCO

 sometimes, depends on many variables. Look at Samford using a 3 game recent form away games, they played a minus (-1 (KP) AOPR/SOS )  in their recent 3 gm away series vs Kansas (+23 AOPR/SOS) away.. a +22 SOS for Kansas. However,   The key for me and the metrics I use is that Samfords win margin vs the 3 opp's  in those 3 away  gms was  +12 ppg vs a -1 AOPR which gave them a +11 road rating ( in that 3 gm recent form series) on the other side of the coin. Kansas was losing to their AOPR/SOS 23 by -16.5 ppg giving them a +6.5 recent road rating in their 3 gm away series vs their 3 opp's. My calculations showed Samford at +4.5 advantage in road rating vs Kansas. My scorecast showed a tight game, but that's another story..Samford almost won the game. My calculations on that game using this type of variable were right on. Thats why I hit Samford for 10 units and ML for 5 units...They almost pulled it off but the refs messed up the blocking call..Samford could have won SU

   Now lets look at a completely  different SOS dynamic with Yale vs Auburn using both 4 gm away and 3 game away. We like to always focus on the 3 gm away calculations because it gives us a more recent ( recent form) tighter calculation.  Yale plays a +1.5 (AOPR/SOS ) in their last 4 road games (recent form) Auburn plays a +12.5 (AOPR/SOS) L4 rd. a +10.5 SOS advantage  for Auburn.  When we tighten it up and use a 3 game recent form away, Yale plays a "O" AOPR/SOS) Auburn plays a +16.5 superior (AOPR/SOS ) in their 3 game recent road series. Now lets calculate it

My  4 gm calculations show me that Yale's win margin vs their AOPR/SOS of +1.5 in  4 gm is +7.5 ppg giving them a +9 away rating in their last 4 road games ( recent form). Auburn 's L4 win margin vs their AOPR of  12.5 is +24 ppg which gives them a 36.5 away rating which is 27.5 points greater that's my projected  line on the game. The actual line is -12.5 

My 3 gm calculation Yale plays a 0 AOPR and winning by 10 ppg vs that AOPR. which gives them a +10 away rating in that 3 gm away series vs their opponents Auburn plays a 16.5 SOS with a win margin of 22 ppg giving Auburn a 38.5 away rating a +28.5 advantage ..Thats why I listed my Auburn as a Max 20 unit Wager.. Aubrun is 28 ppg better than Yale..the line is weak @ -12.5

win margin even in that recent form 3 game road was +12  Kansas on the other hand was losing to thier 22 SOS by -16.5 ppg 

Just food for thought. Northwestern is the 4th best team this season shooting ( and making ) 3-pointers.

TOP 5 :

KENTUCKY ( Well, that didn't work out so well...LOL )

PURDUE

DAYTON

NORTHWESTERN

COLORADO

Disregard that last paragraph , that was part of my draft

just at glance.

Clemson is atrocious in this tournament. 
bama are frauds. 

@wacco

 Kentucky's defense was Giving up 90 + ppg on the road..That allowed an  opponent that can score to take advantage

@LuckyBros

 I'd argue they are better this year than last year's final four team. They have beaten Arizona, Butler, Virginia Tech, Texas A&M and Memphis this season.

@CCYCO

 Northwestern fits a similar variable as Auburn , but not to that win Margin degree. Its the defense that plays the superior AOPR and NW is installed as the dog with that type of variable. There are many variables to my AOPR SOS system..defensive strength is the key. as is Offensive strength as well. but if you a team that scores 68 ppg that plays a stronger SOS but gives up 70 + vs a team that plays a weaker SOS and scores 80 + but carries a decent defense then the win margin will be with the team that plays the weaker SOS. Duquesne fit another variable to the system as a 9 pt dog that won SU..this can work, but you need to cap all the games to find the gems. Very complicated. With College basketball with the amount of games every day, especially in the Conf tour and NCAAB big dance , you can find a plethora of gems, In Football not as many. Hope this helps  

This is very true. I have NMex ( Scores 75Z+ pg gives up 60 on defense with a +6.5 Superior SOS defense in my SOS. I have NM by DD or more vs Clemson..Im going to cap the Bama game because their defense even though they may play a stronger SOS, the other team COC may take advantage because they score 80 ppg away and have a formidable defense

Berry got hurt in January I believe.  And he was hitting at 43!% clip.  He was deadly from 3.  He’s out for the year.  So those numbers should be taken with grain of salt.  

 But their recent form is lacking

Temple beat em..thats all we need to know abot FAU this year, a shell of their former season last year

@Wizerguy

My two cents on BAMA... I think COC will try and run with them and BAMA will run them out of the gym.

Northwestern, Dog w/ SS defense str8 up !