In spite of putting my best foot forward, I am still clueless on this enigmatic event.. May be my model is not spitting out the right number, may be im off track and living under the illusion that my model is doing all right.. time is running out, we are almost half way through. I challenge myself everyday to come out with best numbers but failing on every front. I add Home court advantage HCA to my number, I disregard HCA sometimes but all my efforts going to drain at this time.. But i'm still hopeful on a TURNAROUND ..will figure out soon.
Will only check the result till I right this boat with following games:
LE MOYNE +5.5
MILWAUKEE GAME U142.5
DAYTON GAME U143.5
MICHIGAN +3.5
PENN STATE +3.5
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
In spite of putting my best foot forward, I am still clueless on this enigmatic event.. May be my model is not spitting out the right number, may be im off track and living under the illusion that my model is doing all right.. time is running out, we are almost half way through. I challenge myself everyday to come out with best numbers but failing on every front. I add Home court advantage HCA to my number, I disregard HCA sometimes but all my efforts going to drain at this time.. But i'm still hopeful on a TURNAROUND ..will figure out soon.
Will only check the result till I right this boat with following games:
Believe in yourself, any system and tweak as necessary. I use my years managing a top HS program, my college team and my 5 years working in the nba . And then apply it to other team sports etc.
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Quote Originally Posted by umgmu:
Believe in yourself, any system and tweak as necessary. I use my years managing a top HS program, my college team and my 5 years working in the nba . And then apply it to other team sports etc.
Believe in yourself, any system and tweak as necessary. I use my years managing a top HS program, my college team and my 5 years working in the nba . And then apply it to other team sports etc.
Thanks for your kind words!..
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Quote Originally Posted by umgmu:
Believe in yourself, any system and tweak as necessary. I use my years managing a top HS program, my college team and my 5 years working in the nba . And then apply it to other team sports etc.
Thanks for that. TBH, my model's final number matching with book's spread on almost 65-70%games with a +-2 points difference and those games I treat as SHARP numbers (aka COIN TOSS games) and skip them altogether.. I am focused on remaining 30% of the games to find my EDGE.. i CAN ALWAYS PICK THOSE 70% GAMES AS THEY KEEP WINNING AND LOSING AT RANDOM AS I HAVE OBSERVERD IN LAST 3 YEARS. With no offense to winning posters on this forum but its unbelievable they are posting 10-15 games spreads and expecting to win LONG TERM!! Bookies can't give you an edge on 15 games a day! Everything will regress to mean in the long term.. For LONG TERM winning bettors, its like finding diamonds in a coal mine, rare and very tough but possible!
Just listening to my fav podcast on Pinnacle WHY BETTING IS SO HARD by JOSEPH BUCHDAHL.. very inspiring and keep listening to that all the time when my chips are down..
I will continue my struggle on finding those DIAMONDS.. so long..
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Quote Originally Posted by artstew:
Things will turnaround, stay positive
Thanks for that. TBH, my model's final number matching with book's spread on almost 65-70%games with a +-2 points difference and those games I treat as SHARP numbers (aka COIN TOSS games) and skip them altogether.. I am focused on remaining 30% of the games to find my EDGE.. i CAN ALWAYS PICK THOSE 70% GAMES AS THEY KEEP WINNING AND LOSING AT RANDOM AS I HAVE OBSERVERD IN LAST 3 YEARS. With no offense to winning posters on this forum but its unbelievable they are posting 10-15 games spreads and expecting to win LONG TERM!! Bookies can't give you an edge on 15 games a day! Everything will regress to mean in the long term.. For LONG TERM winning bettors, its like finding diamonds in a coal mine, rare and very tough but possible!
Just listening to my fav podcast on Pinnacle WHY BETTING IS SO HARD by JOSEPH BUCHDAHL.. very inspiring and keep listening to that all the time when my chips are down..
I will continue my struggle on finding those DIAMONDS.. so long..
Where most people fail is relative performance. That is strength of schedule.
Most people handicap Team A versus Team B.
I handicap Teams A offense versus Teams B defense; Team A defense versus Team B Offense.
Example: Tonight's game:
Toledo
Ohio
Toledo, on the road averages on Offense .95 Points Per Possession against an average defense of 222 on schedule.
Ohio has the 144 best defense (of 364 teams) Thats a major upgrade. i Projection Toledo's PPP for tonight i come up with .86 PPP
Toledo defense on the road give up .91 PPP against a schedule of 214. Ohio offense is ranked 91 a major upgrade to toledo schedule. I projected Toledo yo give up 1.07 PPP
I do the same for Ohio.
Ohio averages1.20 PPP against a schedule of 221 defenses, Toledo is 41. I project Ohio Offense at 1.01
Ohio gives up .94 PPP against Offenses ranked 288; Toledo is ranked254 on offense, I projected Ohop to give up .99 PPP.
The average PPP in college basketball is 1.07 and the average score is 142.
Now, given that 3 of the 4 projection on lower than 1.07, there was no way this game was going over, not close.
I calculated 136, and max possessions. My threshold is 6 points. so anything 142 and above i would play. I slammed the under 145, as it was 50% above my threshed.
You need to have tight filters, and discipline. I think you get better results looking at relative performance
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Where most people fail is relative performance. That is strength of schedule.
Most people handicap Team A versus Team B.
I handicap Teams A offense versus Teams B defense; Team A defense versus Team B Offense.
Example: Tonight's game:
Toledo
Ohio
Toledo, on the road averages on Offense .95 Points Per Possession against an average defense of 222 on schedule.
Ohio has the 144 best defense (of 364 teams) Thats a major upgrade. i Projection Toledo's PPP for tonight i come up with .86 PPP
Toledo defense on the road give up .91 PPP against a schedule of 214. Ohio offense is ranked 91 a major upgrade to toledo schedule. I projected Toledo yo give up 1.07 PPP
I do the same for Ohio.
Ohio averages1.20 PPP against a schedule of 221 defenses, Toledo is 41. I project Ohio Offense at 1.01
Ohio gives up .94 PPP against Offenses ranked 288; Toledo is ranked254 on offense, I projected Ohop to give up .99 PPP.
The average PPP in college basketball is 1.07 and the average score is 142.
Now, given that 3 of the 4 projection on lower than 1.07, there was no way this game was going over, not close.
I calculated 136, and max possessions. My threshold is 6 points. so anything 142 and above i would play. I slammed the under 145, as it was 50% above my threshed.
You need to have tight filters, and discipline. I think you get better results looking at relative performance
Quote Originally Posted by artstew: Things will turnaround, stay positive Thanks for that. TBH, my model's final number matching with book's spread on almost 65-70%games with a +-2 points difference and those games I treat as SHARP numbers (aka COIN TOSS games) and skip them altogether.. I am focused on remaining 30% of the games to find my EDGE.. i CAN ALWAYS PICK THOSE 70% GAMES AS THEY KEEP WINNING AND LOSING AT RANDOM AS I HAVE OBSERVERD IN LAST 3 YEARS. With no offense to winning posters on this forum but its unbelievable they are posting 10-15 games spreads and expecting to win LONG TERM!! Bookies can't give you an edge on 15 games a day! Everything will regress to mean in the long term.. For LONG TERM winning bettors, its like finding diamonds in a coal mine, rare and very tough but possible! Just listening to my fav podcast on Pinnacle WHY BETTING IS SO HARD by JOSEPH BUCHDAHL.. very inspiring and keep listening to that all the time when my chips are down.. I will continue my struggle on finding those DIAMONDS.. so long..
I disagree…. Fantastic cappers will win year after year regardless. I would take a break from pinnacle podcasts and other hired distractions. 3 years also is a very small sample size. Believe in yourself and you’ll see improvements to your losses.
im a long term better of over 40 years and I disagree with you on many of your points… A very generic non winning approach and attitude…doomed.
GL amigo, money management is A#1 of importance….not “WHY BETTING IS SO HARD BY JOE DINGLEBERRY”
just trying to help here,
J Woods
SEC is strongest NCAAB Conference imo
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Quote Originally Posted by JASON3958:
Quote Originally Posted by artstew: Things will turnaround, stay positive Thanks for that. TBH, my model's final number matching with book's spread on almost 65-70%games with a +-2 points difference and those games I treat as SHARP numbers (aka COIN TOSS games) and skip them altogether.. I am focused on remaining 30% of the games to find my EDGE.. i CAN ALWAYS PICK THOSE 70% GAMES AS THEY KEEP WINNING AND LOSING AT RANDOM AS I HAVE OBSERVERD IN LAST 3 YEARS. With no offense to winning posters on this forum but its unbelievable they are posting 10-15 games spreads and expecting to win LONG TERM!! Bookies can't give you an edge on 15 games a day! Everything will regress to mean in the long term.. For LONG TERM winning bettors, its like finding diamonds in a coal mine, rare and very tough but possible! Just listening to my fav podcast on Pinnacle WHY BETTING IS SO HARD by JOSEPH BUCHDAHL.. very inspiring and keep listening to that all the time when my chips are down.. I will continue my struggle on finding those DIAMONDS.. so long..
I disagree…. Fantastic cappers will win year after year regardless. I would take a break from pinnacle podcasts and other hired distractions. 3 years also is a very small sample size. Believe in yourself and you’ll see improvements to your losses.
im a long term better of over 40 years and I disagree with you on many of your points… A very generic non winning approach and attitude…doomed.
GL amigo, money management is A#1 of importance….not “WHY BETTING IS SO HARD BY JOE DINGLEBERRY”
The books are very good at what they do. They have vig on their side, an abundance of resources to get up to date information, an army of smart people working for them, and in result, better models than we do. It's tough to beat the books.
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@JASON3958
The books are very good at what they do. They have vig on their side, an abundance of resources to get up to date information, an army of smart people working for them, and in result, better models than we do. It's tough to beat the books.
@JASON3958 The books are very good at what they do. They have vig on their side, an abundance of resources to get up to date information, an army of smart people working for them, and in result, better models than we do. It's tough to beat the books.
Thanks for that Insight. Totally agree.. It's tough to beat books LONG TERM.. I'm on a crusade and I know it's a fight between DAVID and GOLIATH where I don't have much scope to win but I will fight, fight till I have no regrets that I didn't try enough..
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Quote Originally Posted by UnderdogKing:
@JASON3958 The books are very good at what they do. They have vig on their side, an abundance of resources to get up to date information, an army of smart people working for them, and in result, better models than we do. It's tough to beat the books.
Thanks for that Insight. Totally agree.. It's tough to beat books LONG TERM.. I'm on a crusade and I know it's a fight between DAVID and GOLIATH where I don't have much scope to win but I will fight, fight till I have no regrets that I didn't try enough..
I think stat wise when working on a model, ....rebound advantage numbers are an over looked stat because it actually represents a teams hustle and drive...GL w/your efforts, thx for the thread hope you get on fire...GL!
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I think stat wise when working on a model, ....rebound advantage numbers are an over looked stat because it actually represents a teams hustle and drive...GL w/your efforts, thx for the thread hope you get on fire...GL!
I think stat wise when working on a model, ....rebound advantage numbers are an over looked stat because it actually represents a teams hustle and drive...GL w/your efforts, thx for the thread hope you get on fire...GL!
Thanks for motivation. Rebound % included in my stats, I have gone as far as taking seconds/possession for the teams into my model.. sometimes the model is getting too crunchy and overwhelming for me to comprehend. lol. but Like I said, its an HERCULEAN TASK so lets see how it goes.. working on following last games of the day to test my model, not interested in putting my money on them for today at least as my bag is already full ..lol
SAN DIEGO STATE +3
UTAH VALLEY +5.5
CINCINNATI +6.5
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Quote Originally Posted by skoonr3:
I think stat wise when working on a model, ....rebound advantage numbers are an over looked stat because it actually represents a teams hustle and drive...GL w/your efforts, thx for the thread hope you get on fire...GL!
Thanks for motivation. Rebound % included in my stats, I have gone as far as taking seconds/possession for the teams into my model.. sometimes the model is getting too crunchy and overwhelming for me to comprehend. lol. but Like I said, its an HERCULEAN TASK so lets see how it goes.. working on following last games of the day to test my model, not interested in putting my money on them for today at least as my bag is already full ..lol
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Believe in yourself and you’ll see improvements to your losses.
A very generic non winning approach and attitude…doomed. 
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