Write-up #2

Xavier is a hot public favorite after stealing an upset win against two-seeded Arizona. The line opened at 8.5 and was quickly bet down to 8. What the public does not understand is the matchup difference.  Xavier had matched up very well with Arizona as they had their way around the rim against the 134th best two point % defense.  Arizona lacks a strong interior presence around the rim and Bluiett more than anybody else was able to take advantage of that by wracking up 25 points. On the offensive side, Zona got very little production out of their big man, just 9 points from Markkanen. Gonzaga is a different beast from Arizona. They have a dominant interior presence and I think this will be decisive against Xavier whose size and strength inside pales in comparison with that of Gonzaga. Gonzaga is 4th in 2 point % on offense while Xavier is one of the worst teams at protecting the rim and Gonzaga is 2nd in 2 point % on defense. I therefore expect Karnowski to have a big game for the Zags. While Xavier will do all it can to contain his size and strength, Williams-Goss should profit from the lack of attention placed upon him. In this sense, it is all the better for Zags backers that he only managed 10 points against West Virginia. Whenever Williams-Goss has scored 10 points or fewer, he has scored 20 or more all but one time in the following game. His „worst“ performance after scoring 10 or less was 14 against Florida’s elite defense in non-conference play. Xavier’s defense is strong, but their vulnerability inside will allow Gonzaga’s other weapons to have strong performances. On the flipside, Xavier will have trouble driving into the interior, but they are only ranked 170th in 3 point %. That won’t be good enough to keep up with Gonzaga. Xavier is fortunate to have advanced this far--  Zona went scoreless the last few minutes of the game, surrendering a big lead due to a mental lapse that almost also cost Florida tonight. I think Gonzaga is too good on both sides of the ball for this Xavier team to keep up with and I think they win by double digits.  Expect a letdown after an emotional upset win. Expect Gonzaga to start playing like the final four team that they were hyped up to be. Take Gonzaga -8.