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#1
Guys, i'm on a trial run for some guys and i'm making picks everyday for them and here's what I sent them for tomorrow. I totally take the blame for Purdue last night. Kansas just blew my guys out of the water. They played outside themselves and I can't cap that kind of statistically deviant explosiveness. Good job Kansas backers.
Wisconsin is primed for a let-down after coming back from a late seven point deficit to dethrone the defending national champions. Wisconsin had matched up really well with Villanova. Wisconsin tends to beat teams when they 1) control tempo and 2) dominate the interior. So far in the tourney, Wisconsin has faced teams against which they were able to do both. Villanova also likes to play at a snails-pace. Villanova is also soft in the interior. So Wisconsin had their way in the interior, shooting 20/31 from inside the arc, and played at a tempo favorable to them, and won. Likewise in their first round against, Tech, who was playing without their forward who specializes in defensive rebounding Chris Clarke, Wisconsin had 9 more rebounds and won by 10.
Without their center Egbunu, Florida must surely look like a team whom Wisconsin can bully in the interior and so find success against like Villanova? Both teams play great defense. Regarding offense, Florida is indeed a team that Wisconsin can easily defend in the half court. Florida's 3 point % is 116th and their 2 point % is 101st. However, Florida's offensive efficiency is 26th. The Gators rely on getting in transition--on forcing turnovers and pushing the pace. To push the pace is key against Wisconsin. Then it does not matter that Egbunu is injured. Michigan State provided the template for this when they beat Wisconsin at home by 10 points without having a backcourt of nearly the same quality as Wisconsin. Florida is great at forcing turnovers, their defense is 32nd in the country in this category and Wisconsin has not been secure with the ball as of late. Part of the reason for their recent problems is their lack of experience in conference play playing teams who are strong in forcing turnovers. Their Big 10 opponents generally rank towards the bottom half in the NCAA at forcing turnovers. In Wisconsin's loss against Michigan they had 15 turnovers. In their recent win against Villanova, they had 14 turnovers. Villanova, because they play at a slow tempo, did not so much punish Wisconsin for their turnovers. But Florida will. They forced 11 turnovers from Virginia (an inflated number given the low quantity of possessions in that game), who is 18th in offensive turnover %, 17 from East Tennessee State and I expect their defense to achieve a similar feat against Wisconsin. Despite Egbunu's absence, Florida still has the length in the interior to compete on the boards. The last time that they were out-rebounded was at Kentucky on February 25 and the 20 missed threes might have had something to do with the rebounding differential. I think Florida can compete with Wisconsin in terms of physicality and outclass them in terms of athleticism. I think they can get enough turnovers to ignite their transition game and generally maintain a fast pace in order to score enough on Wisconsin so that they don't miss Egbunu on the inside. Give me Florida -1.5!
UNC has consistently struggled away from home against the better defensive teams. On the road against teams in the top 50 in defensive efficiency UNC is 1-6 ATS in its last 7. I expect this trend to continue against Butler. 8 points is a lot to give a battle-tested Butler who beat the defending champions twice, Xavier home and away, Marquette home and away and Seton Hall on the road. Butler has proven to hang with the best away from home. One can justifiably raise a concern against the UNC's rebounding prowess. UNC is arguably the best rebounding team in the nation and Butler is one of the nation's worst rebounding teams. However, rebounding has not been a decisive factor in these affairs. They out-rebounded Georgia Tech, Virginia and Duke in the ACC tournament and still lost. They were actually outclassed in the interior in their losses against Miami and Duke in conference play. Whether UNC's rebounding corps underachieves or is consistent, the only time that they have covered in their last 7 against top 50 defenses was fresh in their first tourney game against a tired Miami squad who had just won a thriller the day before against Syracuse. Butler, on the other hand, has handled statistically superior rebounding squads away from home--for example, Seton Hall is 14th in total rebounding and Xavier 62nd. So, I don't think rebounding will be decisive in this matchup. I think Butler's defense will be the key. I like Butler's stingy defense, offensive efficiency and superior ball security to help them control the slow tempo that they prefer. However, even if the tempo becomes fast, Butler has beaten the team in its conference most similar to UNC in terms of tempo and offensive efficiency--Marquette home and away. In sum, whereas Butler has successfully dealt with the kinds of weapons that UNC can bring to the table---rebounding, tempo, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency (Villanova is 11th in this last category)--UNC has consistently struggled to deal with the strength that Butler possesses--efficient defense. UNC is fortunate to have scraped by Arkansas and they might not be so lucky against a team with a coaching staff who can do a better job guiding them down the stretch. So give me the road-tested and defensively-minded team to cover the large point spread. Give me Butler +8!
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