Two games on the board with real potential to fade the public's typical reaction of "look what happened last week!"
Game 1: Iowa @ Wisconsin (-12)
a) Public is 67% on Iowa
b) Iowa either has big momentum or a letdown game
c) Wisconsin, if they want to get to the CFP... need a statement win over a ranked opponent
d) Wisconsin has several key injuries (WR and LB)
e) Fits into the "Bet on the home favorite when the public is on the road underdog" system
f) Iowa hasn't lost a game by more than 7 this entire season
Game 2: MIchigan St @ Ohio St (-15.5)
a) Public is 81% on Michigan St
b) Ohio St either continues their meltdown or they come out mad as hell
c) Ohio St still has plenty to play for in a Big Ten Championship
d) Michigan St seems to always play OSU tough
e) Line holding firm despite public betting on Michigan St in droves
f) Fits into the "Bet on the home favorite when the public is on the road underdog" system
Anyone have some feedback on what they see out of these two matchups?
My Pick: While I think OSU is a terrific public fade... I tend to back Wisconsin as they need a statement win against an Iowa team that surprised even themselves by beating OSU the way that they did.
Wisconsin -12
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Two games on the board with real potential to fade the public's typical reaction of "look what happened last week!"
Game 1: Iowa @ Wisconsin (-12)
a) Public is 67% on Iowa
b) Iowa either has big momentum or a letdown game
c) Wisconsin, if they want to get to the CFP... need a statement win over a ranked opponent
d) Wisconsin has several key injuries (WR and LB)
e) Fits into the "Bet on the home favorite when the public is on the road underdog" system
f) Iowa hasn't lost a game by more than 7 this entire season
Game 2: MIchigan St @ Ohio St (-15.5)
a) Public is 81% on Michigan St
b) Ohio St either continues their meltdown or they come out mad as hell
c) Ohio St still has plenty to play for in a Big Ten Championship
d) Michigan St seems to always play OSU tough
e) Line holding firm despite public betting on Michigan St in droves
f) Fits into the "Bet on the home favorite when the public is on the road underdog" system
Anyone have some feedback on what they see out of these two matchups?
My Pick: While I think OSU is a terrific public fade... I tend to back Wisconsin as they need a statement win against an Iowa team that surprised even themselves by beating OSU the way that they did.
Don't worry about who the public likes. Just look at the line and look at the matchup.
I'm not a huge MSU fan, but that line just is ridiculous. Ohio St. has played 3 good teams. They got hammered in two of them and won the other by a point. MSU has its season on the line here potentially. They play pretty decent defense. I just don't think you can expect Ohio St. to win this by 20.
I'm from Wisconsin. Only thing I don't like about Iowa is maybe extra motivation to run up the score with the rankings. But this game is always close. Iowa plays good defense. Wisconsin was down 10-0 last week. Yeah, the score looked good at the end, but Indiana turned the ball over inside their own 25 3 straight possessions to end the game - all ended in TDs. You can't count on Iowa to do that. I thought this line would be 9 and it's 12.
Other dogs I like - TCU +6.5 Iowa St +6.5 Auburn +2.5 Miami +3 Tennessee +12.5 (Missouri did lose 31-0 to Purdue earlier in the year this line is a ridiculous overreaction imo but we'll see)
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Don't worry about who the public likes. Just look at the line and look at the matchup.
I'm not a huge MSU fan, but that line just is ridiculous. Ohio St. has played 3 good teams. They got hammered in two of them and won the other by a point. MSU has its season on the line here potentially. They play pretty decent defense. I just don't think you can expect Ohio St. to win this by 20.
I'm from Wisconsin. Only thing I don't like about Iowa is maybe extra motivation to run up the score with the rankings. But this game is always close. Iowa plays good defense. Wisconsin was down 10-0 last week. Yeah, the score looked good at the end, but Indiana turned the ball over inside their own 25 3 straight possessions to end the game - all ended in TDs. You can't count on Iowa to do that. I thought this line would be 9 and it's 12.
Other dogs I like - TCU +6.5 Iowa St +6.5 Auburn +2.5 Miami +3 Tennessee +12.5 (Missouri did lose 31-0 to Purdue earlier in the year this line is a ridiculous overreaction imo but we'll see)
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