2011 Week 1 Line Guesses/Leans--Hurry Up CFB Season

I been guessing lines weeks in advance for way too many years now 

 ....Love Forcasting what I think the oddsmakers will release....

 Week 1 is by far the Hardest for me .... I Tend to be Way High on the Numbers....

Nice to hear most of ours are close ....

the Miss St at Memphis Line might not dip much more than what I Have even with my error in Home Field 

 ... Dreaming of getting the Bulldogs at -24 or less...

Thanks for Reading and Posting Brother... May this seasons CFB be your Best Ever

i adjusted this line down to near a pick a week ago or so .....

Leaning on Boise St. in this matchup .... Mainly bc Georgia has a Huge game vs SC on Deck.....

Might just sit this one out....

Line Guesses with the Goal of being within 3.5 of the Actual Line..

Leans in Color

Kentucky -27 Western KY

North Texas
@ Florida International -13.5

South Florida
@ Notre Dame -11.5

LSU -1
vs Oregon

Boise St. -1 vs * Georgia (Atlanta)

Akron
@ Ohio State -30.5

Arkansas State
vs Illinois -19.5

Army
@ Northern Illinois -6.5

Ball State
vs Indiana -17.5

Bowling Green
@ Idaho -4.5

Buffalo
@ Pittsburgh -29

BYU
@ Ole Miss -3.5

Colorado
@ Hawaii -4.5

Colorado State -4.5
@ New Mexico

East Carolina
vs South Carolina -20

Florida Atlantic
@ Florida -35.5

Fresno State
@ California -9.5

Kent State
@ Alabama -40.5

LA Lafayette
@ Oklahoma State --36.5

LA Monroe
@ Florida State -33.5

Louisana Tech
@ Southern Miss -12.5

Marshall
@ West Virginia -22.5

@ Memphis
 Mississippi State -34

Miami (OH)
@ Missouri -21.5

Middle Tenn. State
@ Purdue -14.5

Minnesota
@ USC -24

Northwestern
@ Boston College -6.5

Ohio -5.5
@ New Mexico State

Rice
@ Texas -30

San Jose State
@ Stanford -34.5

SMU
@ Texas A&M -16.5

TCU -8.5
@ Baylor

Troy
@ Clemson -17.5

Tulsa
@ Oklahoma -25.5

UCLA -1 @ Houston

UNLV
@ Wisconsin -28.5

Utah State
@ Auburn -35.5

Wake Forest
@ Syracuse -4.5

Western Michigan
@ Michigan -20

Miami -3
@ Maryland

Line Guesses with the Goal of being within 3.5 of the Actual Line..

Leans in Color

Kentucky -27 Western KY

North Texas
@ Florida International -13.5

South Florida
@ Notre Dame -11.5

LSU -3
vs Oregon

Boise St. -1 vs * Georgia (Atlanta)

Akron
@ Ohio State -30.5

Arkansas State
vs Illinois -19.5

Army
@ Northern Illinois -6.5

Ball State
vs Indiana -17.5

Bowling Green
@ Idaho -4.5

Buffalo
@ Pittsburgh -29

BYU
@ Ole Miss -3.5

Colorado
@ Hawaii -3.5

Colorado State -4.5
@ New Mexico

East Carolina
vs South Carolina -22.5

Florida Atlantic
@ Florida -35.5

Fresno State
@ California -9.5

Kent State
@ Alabama -40.5

LA Lafayette
@ Oklahoma State --36.5

LA Monroe
@ Florida State -33.5

Louisana Tech
@ Southern Miss -14

Marshall
@ West Virginia -22.5

@ Memphis
 Mississippi State -34

Miami (OH)
@ Missouri -21.5

Middle Tenn. State
@ Purdue -15.5

Minnesota
@ USC -24

Northwestern
@ Boston College -6.5

Ohio -5.5
@ New Mexico State

Rice
@ Texas -30

San Jose State
@ Stanford -34.5

SMU
@ Texas A&M -16.5

TCU -8.5
@ Baylor

Troy
@ Clemson -17.5

Tulsa
@ Oklahoma -25.5

UCLA -1 @ Houston

UNLV
@ Wisconsin -28.5

Utah State
@ Auburn -35.5

Wake Forest
@ Syracuse -4.5

Western Michigan
@ Michigan -20

Miami -3
@ Maryland

using ur lines my 5 teamer would be:

1.Ohio -5'

2.Pitt -29

3. Mich -20

4. N.W.

5.Hawaii  - no way vegas make them a fav. they will be a home dogg. check ur power ratings.

Thanks for posting your Leans Brother

I think Miss St will open at -31 against Memphis...you won't see 24 per your post above...

I think your Texas post of -30 is too high...yes, orangebloods are hoping for the best, but there is a lot of negative sentiment by gamblers in general...i think the Texas spread will be around -26...and I think Texas will cover that spread...

BIG12 looks really tough at the Top again this season .... I have Texas finishing no better than 3rd.... maybe as low as 6th ..... But they have to be better right ???   I will take the wait and see on the Horns .... Since I have no Money on the Sooners this season , Will be pulling for your Boys to knock them off in the RRR.....

Might be tempted to take the Horns week 1 laying anything under 27.....

BOL this season Brother

i see some games on ur list that have potential...

gimme...

army+6' -go cadets

Bowling green+4'!

Fresno st+9!! - go Pat Hill

fuck the world im still taking

Stanford-34'

throwing up my Horns down

Rice+30

ALL 3

          LOCKS!!!

Line Guesses with the Goal of being within 3.5 of the Actual Line..

Leans in Color

Kentucky -27 Western KY

North Texas
@ Florida International -13.5

South Florida
@ Notre Dame -11.5

LSU -3
vs Oregon

Boise St. -1 vs * Georgia (Atlanta)

Akron
@ Ohio State -30.5

Arkansas State
vs Illinois -19.5

Army
@ Northern Illinois -6.5

Ball State
vs Indiana -17.5

Bowling Green
@ Idaho -4.5

Buffalo
@ Pittsburgh -29

BYU
@ Ole Miss -3.5

Colorado
@ Hawaii -3.5

Colorado State -4.5
@ New Mexico

East Carolina
vs South Carolina -22.5

Florida Atlantic
@ Florida -35.5

Fresno State
@ California -9.5

Kent State
@ Alabama -40.5

LA Lafayette
@ Oklahoma State --36.5

LA Monroe
@ Florida State -33.5

Louisana Tech
@ Southern Miss -14

Marshall
@ West Virginia -22.5

@ Memphis
Mississippi State -34

Miami (OH)
@ Missouri -21.5

Middle Tenn. State
@ Purdue -15.5

Minnesota
@ USC -24

Northwestern
@ Boston College -6.5

Ohio -5.5
@ New Mexico State

Rice
@ Texas -30

San Jose State
@ Stanford -34.5

SMU
@ Texas A&M -16.5

TCU -8.5
@ Baylor

Troy
@ Clemson -17.5

Tulsa
@ Oklahoma -25.5

UCLA -1 @ Houston

UNLV
@ Wisconsin -28.5

Utah State
@ Auburn -35.5

Wake Forest
@ Syracuse -4

Western Michigan
@ Michigan -20

Miami -3
@ Maryland

Quote Originally Posted by InCash:

It's a garbage game, but the Wisconsin line almost has to be in the 30's.  I'll say somewhere around 34.  It was -20.5 last year in Vegas and the perfect storm allowed lowly UNLV to cover by a half point (41-21).  Brutal for all of us UW fans who went there and put money on them. 

Thursday night opener in Camp Randall (first since 2000) and you know they are going to let Wilson get some practice reps against UNLV.  Yes his arrival has probably made Wisconsin overrated and he may not even do as well as Tolzien, but this is the type of game where he will go off.

Although if we've learned anything, it's that UNLV owns UW ATS.  In the last 4 games UW has won by 20, 7, 15 (home), and lost by 15 (home).
I love reading about NCAAF in July!  Keep up the chatter. 

I don't trust any games played in Vegas.... I was at the badgers game there in 2007.... I remember the Rebels were allowed to hold and set pick plays on offense .....The Line was so fishy climbing all the way to 29 in some casinos.....Badgers won 25-13 in a game they almost lost....

UNLV is one of my Major Fade teams this season and is 0-10 ATS as a Road dog the last 2 years ...

I will adjust this line back over the other side of 30...thanks for the Push

Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:



how 'bout the '02? game in Vegas....

tons of Badger fans made the trip....setting attendance records....Wisky opened at -3 or so.....pounded immediately of course.....went to 8 or so

UNLV down 27-7 with about 7 min left.....when power went off.....all bets cancelled when game was called.....(55 min rule).........

YEah that was one of the shadiest games ever ....

Line Guesses with the Goal of being within 3.5 of the Actual Line..

Leans in Color

Kentucky -27 Western KY

North Texas
@ Florida International -13.5

South Florida
@ Notre Dame -11.5

LSU -3
vs Oregon

Boise St. -1 vs * Georgia (Atlanta)

Akron
@ Ohio State -30.5

Arkansas State
vs Illinois -19.5

Army
@ Northern Illinois -6.5

Ball State
vs Indiana -17.5

Bowling Green
@ Idaho -4.5

Buffalo
@ Pittsburgh -29

BYU
@ Ole Miss -3.5

Colorado
@ Hawaii -3.5

Colorado State -4.5
@ New Mexico

East Carolina
vs South Carolina -22.5

Florida Atlantic
@ Florida -35.5

Fresno State
@ California -9.5

Kent State
@ Alabama -40.5

LA Lafayette
@ Oklahoma State --36.5

LA Monroe
@ Florida State -33.5

Louisana Tech
@ Southern Miss -14

Marshall
@ West Virginia -22.5

@ Memphis
Mississippi State -34

Miami (OH)
@ Missouri -21.5

Middle Tenn. State
@ Purdue -17.5

Minnesota
@ USC -24

Northwestern
@ Boston College -6.5

Ohio -5.5
@ New Mexico State

Rice
@ Texas -30

San Jose State
@ Stanford -34.5

SMU
@ Texas A&M -15.5

TCU -8.5
@ Baylor

Troy
@ Clemson -17.5

Tulsa
@ Oklahoma -25.5

UCLA -1 @ Houston

UNLV
@ Wisconsin -32.5

Utah State
@ Auburn -35.5

Wake Forest
@ Syracuse -4

Western Michigan
@ Michigan -20

Miami -3
@ Maryland

DOUBLEUP!!!  man too long brother,  i havent been on covers in some months. glad to find this thread, and boy i cant wait for college football to start.  I see you're still on here doing work.  ive been on fire in baseball, but i dont care how much money i win, ill gladly take a saturday morning in the fall on the phone with my boys talking wagers.   ahhhh.   anyways, according to your lines, here are my wagers i will be placing...(w/ writieups...)

-Arkansas St. @ ILLINOIS(-18.5) + 1H(-10) - I love the QB for illinois, and even with the loss of leshoure at RB(great pick for my lions), i think this game is just a straight up mismatch...

-ECU @ SOUTH CAROLINA(-17) + 1H(-9.5) + OVER(??) + 1H OVER(??) + SC TT OVER(??) - The gamecocks are absolutely loaded. ECU's defense is aawwffuull, and i think this one is a rout early, and late.  I also will be playing the over here, for the game and the half, as well as the SC TT Over.  This one should be easy.

-Buffalo @ PITT(-27) + 1H(-14) - Buffalo is also going to be terrible this year, and even with all of the offseason turmoil that went on this past year, i think the talent discrepency is just too much.

-Kent St. @ ALABAMA 1H(-20.5) - I'm on the complete opposite side of you on this one. Now Kent St. might somehow pull a backdoor cover on the game spread, but 1st half, i see this one being the same as the duke game last year, a gimme.

-UL-Laf @ OKLAHOMA ST.(-36) + 1H(-19) - Even with the loss of the OC to WVU, OK St's talent is just a huge mismatch here, blackmon could score 4 TD's here easily.  If this one is less than a 40 point game i would be shocked...

-UL-Monroe @ FSU(-33.5) + 1H(-18) - FSU is going to have a great season this year, and this is where it starts.  This is a stat game for sure, and i love fading sun belt teams on the road in week 1, it's been pretty profitable for me over the years...

-Marshall @ WVU(-22) + 1H(-12) - Again on the opposite side of you on this one, i think the coach WVU hired is going to do great things with Geno Smith and all of the recievers the mountaineers have on the roster.  The defense will be pretty solid this year as well.  If this line is under 24 i will be all over it.

-MISSISSIPPI ST.(-33.5) + 1H(-18) @ Memphis - I agree 100% with the sentiment in this thread about the bulldogs.  They will have another year under this coach with this offense, and honestly, this is more of a fade of memphis, this is just a terrible spot for memphis.

-Minnesota @ USC(-22.5) + 1H(-12.5) - This one is just another talent mismatch.  I like the hire of kiln in minnesota, but its going to take a while for him to get things rolling in minnesota.

-OHIO(-9.5) + 1H(-5.5) @ New Mexico St. - I think Ohio will be one of the better teams in the MAC this year, and New Mexico St. again will be a bottom feeder in the NCAA.  This one should be a 14+ point game...

-San Jose St. @ STANFORD 1H(-19.5) -  Andrew Luck will absolutely light up the secondary for the spartans, and i was considering taking them for the game, but i think this one will be over early, and SJ St might backdoor this one at the end...

-SMU @ TEXAS A&M(-20.5) + 1H(-11.5) - I really like A&M this year, and i think SMU will continue to get better under June Jones, but they just dont have the horses to keep this one close. 

-TCU @ BAYLOR(+9) - I agree that baylor could pull this one out, TCU lost alot in QB Andy Dalton alone, and baylor's offense should be very very good this year.  This is my first DOG in week 1, as i usually dont play dogs in weeks 1-3. 

-Troy @ Clemson OVER(54-58) - If this number is between the 54-58 that i think it will be, i like this game to go over.  Both of these teams can score, and i think they will light up the scoreboard often.

-Tulsa @ OKLAHOMA(-25) + 1H(-13.5) + OVER(62-67) - Oklahoma might be this year's BCS Champion, and even though i like tulsa as a team, this one shouldn't be close, although i do think tulsa will put up 17-23 points, i see like a 63-17 type game here...

-Wake Forest @ Syracuse UNDER(43-48) -  If this total is in around the number i think, i like it to stay under.  Both of these teams are very solid on defense, and not very dynamic on offense, this one could easily stay in the 30's.

-W. Michigan @ MICHIGAN(-20) + 1H(-11) -  I think this year Michigan will bounce back large.  I love Brady Hoke's approach to the game of football, and i was telling all my UM fans up here in detroit years ago they shoulda hired Hoke back when they hired Rich Rod.  Well good for them they finally did get a chance to hire him and 2nd time and they pulled the trigger.  The defense should be much improved, and the offense, although not as dynamic as it was last year, will still be able to put up points at will against Western.

-MIAMI(-2) + 1H(-1.5) @ Maryland -  I love the hire of Randy Edsall in maryland, but i love miami's hire of Al Golden and the canes talent even more.  Although i dont think this line is too off, i would set it it more in the 4-6 range, and i hope youre right about what vegas does. If its less than 5 i will be all over Miami here...

Couple games (from your predicted lines) that catch my eye DBL:

NIU -6.5

Michigan -20

Miss St - 34

FSU -33.5

Northwestern ML

Less than 2 months away -

hey D-up, i know u like BYU but, u got the wrong team favored...after last season, no way u see ol'miss favored here...

      vegas aint dumb(make byu a dogg and the whole mormon nation feels disrespected and then byu plays with fire and wins the game) nope, aint happening...sorry dog, byu loses in SEC country...

...wishfull thinking, we all do it...

Point Spread ratings and Oddsmakers line Guess

Updated 7-18

Kentucky 74*(Nash)    -27   

WKU  45    

North Texas 47      
@ FlU   62  HF+4          -18.5

South Florida 75
@ Notre Dame 80  HF+4.5    -11

LSU   90                     -2.5
vs Oregon   92

 vs Georgia *Atl)  85.5 HF+4      

Akron     41.5
@ Ohio State 80.5 HF+5       -37

Arkansas State  53
vs Illinois 81.5    HF+4.5      -24.5

Army    63
@ Northern Illinois 64  HF+4.5   -9.5 

Ball State 43.5
vs Indiana 58 HF+4          -17.5

Bowling Green  48 
@ Idaho 62   HF+5           -13

Buffalo     49.5
@ Pittsburgh 81 HF +4           -30

BYU    81
@ Ole Miss 75  HF+4.5        -3.5

Colorado  67
@ Hawaii 67  HF+4                 -3.5

Colorado State 62                  -7.5
@ New Mexico 53  HF+3.5

East Carolina   61.5
vs South Carolina 84  HF+4.5   -23.5  (big game at GA on deck)

Florida Atlantic    45
@ Florida 82  HF+5                    -39

Fresno State  66.5
@ California  73.5   *  HF+3      -7.5

Kent State   58.5
@ Alabama 93    HF+5        -42.5

LA Lafayette  44
@ Oklahoma State 86.5  HF+5  -38.5

LA Monroe    60               
@ Florida State 85.5  HF+4.5     -33.5

Louisana Tech  60

@ Southern Miss 72.5  HF+5   -13.5

Marshall   56
@ West Virginia 77.5 HF+4.5      -24.5

@ Memphis  45  HF+2          
Mississippi State 84            -35

Miami (OH)   57
@ Missouri 81  HF+4         -23.5

Middle Tenn. State   50
@ Purdue 74   HF+4.5      -17.5      

Minnesota    62
@ USC   84   HF+4.5         -24.5

Northwestern 76
@ Boston College 75   HF+4   -5.5

Ohio 62                               -6.5
@ New Mexico State 51  HF+4  

Rice   55
@ Texas 81   HF+6            -29.5

San Jose State  57.5        
@ Stanford 86  HF+3.5     -34.5

SMU   71.5
@ Texas A&M 84.5  HF+4.5   -15.5

TCU   84.5                                 -8.5
@ Baylor   70    HF+3

Troy    68
@ Clemson 78   HF+4.5      -18.5

Tulsa     68.5      
@ Oklahoma 93    HF+4.5    -25.5

UCLA 79                                -1

@ Houston 72   HF+3.5

UNLV   46
@ Wisconsin 81.5  HF+5      -34.5

Utah State  50    
@ Auburn 79    HF+5           -34.5

Wake Forest   68
@ Syracuse 68   HF+4      -4

Western Michigan   56.5
@ Michigan -74.5   HF+5      -21.5

Miami 78                               -3.5
@ Maryland   76   HF+3.5