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2019 Bowl Under Systerm :)

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Posted: #176

I tripled checked my numbers but if anyone spots an error please feel free to let me know. My uncle-in-law is talking my ear off about his days working at a military aerospace contractor.

 
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Posted: #177
Maybe because you are trying to cover your juice on the second half 
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Posted: #178

Quote Originally Posted by monkeymark5:

Maybe because you are trying to cover your juice on the second half

I most definitely am. If the goal is to win 1u on each game then one should cover any juice lost in the 1H result (if applicable). 

 
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Posted: #179

Also, it's likely that Roggs05 is not taking into account his own juice when reporting losses and being more simple about recording which I get because it can be a pain to be thorough and accurate especially when one is not properly incentivized to do so. I have a weird satisfaction with being thorough and accurate when it comes to record-keeping especially with systems that have shown promise in the past.

While my faith is wavering (and has wavered in the past) on this and other systems, I still believe that profit can be had. However, I will say that it is a lot more work and potential headache to win a U than following certain other successful cappers on this forum and others.

 
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Posted: #180
Hope he sweeps his board and wins a million dollars.  ..

I can't imagine blind betting UNDERS , I'd be bot d out of my mind ....

Tough system when every tackle could lead to a subjective Penalty 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #181
*bored out of my mind 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #182
TheKoreanMANG is correct.

Rogg is UNDERSTATING the juice losses - since when he wins a 2H - he claims that is +1unit.

If so - when he loses it is MORE than 3.3u since 2H bet is MORE than 2.2 to win 2.0.

Also, I think Korean has been more accurate with the juice deltas on key #s like 27.  It is often 27u -130 etc - where Rogg is just assumming -110 when WA lines are worse.

Good luck to all.  This chase system is "basically" betting 1H under and 2H unders (skipping some 2H unders).  No reason to think inherently this should win $ in long-run.

I hope it does - good luck to all - but it's just moving variance to edges and hoping most (some) years are in the fat middle of distribution to win some small units.

 
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Posted: #183
Korean - you said +1.15 units in POST#178.

It should only be +1.00.

Good luck.

Yes, need to be METICULOUS (agree with Korean) to see if these systems really have "merit" or just win b/c of "juice adjustments".
 
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Posted: #184

Quote Originally Posted by kvs23:

Korean - you said +1.15 units in POST#178.It should only be +1.00.Good luck.Yes, need to be METICULOUS (agree with Korean) to see if these systems really have "merit" or just win b/c of "juice adjustments".

Nice! Thank you! I knew a screw would be loose somewhere. Explains all of my IKEA furniture having a lot of extra bolts and nuts when I'm done building them. Haha. Update result below. Basically account for an addition 0.15u loss to the 1H and Total results.

 
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Posted: #185

2018 CFB 1H Under Chase System Results

1H: 4-10 (-7.27u)

2H: 6-4 (+0.18u)

Combined 1H + 2H Results: 10-14 (-6.94u)

System Only Results: 10-4 (-7.11u)

 
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Posted: #186
I don’t chase juice. So that’s why my numbers are similar to rogg 
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Posted: #187

Quote Originally Posted by monkeymark5:

I don’t chase juice. So that’s why my numbers are similar to rogg

So I guess when a 1H loses and a 2H wins you're winning less than 1u. I think when Roggs bets or provides a units won/loss post after a 1H loss/2H win he counts it as a +1u not something less than 1u (meaning he "chases juice").

 
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Posted: #188

This system wraps itself around my schlong. Hard.

 
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Posted: #189

Matter of fact this cant even be called a system. This is disgraceful.

 
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Posted: #190
Locked under tcu/cal 20 -120

Korean - I am not chasing for Juice... Every single line (unless I note it is -110)... For example the memphis wake game I profited .9 units
 
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Posted: #191
Quote Originally Posted by thekoreanmang:

So I guess when a 1H loses and a 2H wins you're winning less than 1u. I think when Roggs bets or provides a units won/loss post after a 1H loss/2H win he counts it as a +1u not something less than 1u (meaning he "chases juice").


The numbers are absolutely accurate... MonkeyMark and about  30 other guys in this thread follow every play I make every day and confirm my transparency on a daily basis

Lets get these next plays 
 
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Posted: #192
Quote Originally Posted by thekoreanmang:

2018 CFB 1H Under Chase System Results

1H: 4-10 (-7.27u)

2H: 6-4 (+0.18u)

Combined 1H + 2H Results: 10-14 (-6.94u)

System Only Results: 10-4 (-7.11u)


Lets assume every play u make is -120...

First half you lose its -120 second half you lose -240... Thats -360 x's 4... That equates to -1440... Now lets assume we are really pessimistic and your only winning .9 units for all 10 plays that won (which is not true) - this equated for +900... The worsttt case scenario is your down a little over 5 units... Anyways does not mean much until we start hitting
 
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Posted: #193
Quote Originally Posted by JimmyGape:

Matter of fact this cant even be called a system. This is disgraceful.


Happy Holidays!
 
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Posted: #194
Quote Originally Posted by Roggs05:


The numbers are absolutely accurate... MonkeyMark and about  30 other guys in this thread follow every play I make every day and confirm my transparency on a daily basis

Lets get these next plays 


Been following him for awhile. He is fully transparent. I don’t gripe numbers.  He posts his play.  I just try my best to find a line close as possible 
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Posted: #195

Sounds good. 1-0 on the day. Let's get that 2-0.

 
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Posted: #196
Good day boys.

Already have the duke/temple line locked at 27.5 from yesterday

Locking 

Wisky/miami under 23.5 1xs
Baylor/vandy under 28 1xs -115
 
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Posted: #197

2018 CFB 1H Under Chase System Results

1H: 6-10 (-5.27u)

2H: 6-4 (+0.18u)

Combined 1H + 2H Results: 10-14 (-6.94u)

System Only Results: 11-4 (-5.11u)

 
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Posted: #198

12/26/18 Wed

Boston College vs Boise St. (-3.5, -2.5) (First Responder Bowl)

1H U25.5 (-121 BookMaker): CANCELLED

Total: 0u

Sad about this one. The 1H under looked great. Ironic that the First Responder Bowl was the first bowl ever to be canceled due to weather.

 
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Posted: #199

Minnesota vs Georgia Tech (-4.5, -6) (Quick Lane Bowl)

1H U28.5 (-110 BetOnline/5Dimes): 13 pts scored / Won +1u

Total: +1u

 

California vs TCU (-2, -1) (Cheez-It Bowl)

1H U20 (-125 5Dimes): 7 pts scored / Won +1u

Total: +1u

 
 
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Posted: #200
Updated system Record... Yes different than Korean because of vig etc

12 - 4
-1.8 units

Korean if I may ask are you putting these plays in the day of?  Wwhen you see me post?  Seeing a lot of vig like -120 or higher.  Again this is all convo do not take that the wrong way.  What did you get today as lines? Most of these totals if you lock in the day before are dropping the day of kick.  Something to note.  I.e. my post on duke and temple days ago and now wisky at 21.5 in some spots. Lets get em again today!  
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