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4-0 last week...lets try to do it again

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Posted: #1
i love kansas state but after 4 straight dog wins, and before games against oklahoma and oklahoma state, this is not the best situation to face a rival that they embarassed last season. last week they won at txtech but they were outgained by 241 yards. they were actually outgained by last 4 opponents. i dont like the number of points kansas state is allowing recently because kansas can score. i am taking kansas +12

more in this same thread later tonight.
 
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Posted: #2
illinois' loss to ohio state last week didn't surprise me one bit. i was on ohio state in that one, and i am going against illini again. they are simply not that good. purdue used to dominate this series for seven years before getting hammered last season. they will be looking for a major revenge this week. they are playing much better since the beating they took at home against notre dame. illinois played only one road game so far and indiana jumped on them 10-0 early on, and if ot wasn't for a 66 yards fumble return for a td that helped illini get ahead in the 2nd quarter who knows what would happen in that game. purdue is much better than indiana right now and they will not go down easy. purdue +6.
 
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Posted: #3
re: Kansas St... true!  this is not the best spot for them, emotionally speaking... however, i think this line is off by 2 TDs due to the public's failure to recognize how good they are...

consider this:  Snyder made a habit of pummeling Kansas all those years when K St was making title runs... it looks like he has this team back to playing that same kind of football, and Kansas is absolutely hopeless defensively...

bottom line:  i think Kansas St is just as capable of covering 30 points against Kansas as OU or Okie St, but they don't have that level of respect, so this line is a bargain...

i'm just hoping it gets bet down to 11 so i can get a real gift...
 
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Posted: #4
boise is destroying opponents right now, but i don't see them covering this line against air force. both teams are controling the clock lately, and when two good clock controling teams meet each other, it takes a perfect game from a team to cover this line. air force lost three games already this season, by margins of 14, 16 and 26 points. however, they outgained all three opponents which is quite amazing. the other interesting thing about their three losses is that they kept on playing football until the last whistle despite being down big. against sdsu they scored the last td in the game. against notre dame they scored last 14 points in the game. and against tcu they scored last 10 points of the game. in last 4 games boise scored 14 4th quarter points and allowed 31 4th quarter points. the backdoor is wide open. air force +31
 
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Posted: #5

Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:

re: Kansas St... true!  this is not the best spot for them, emotionally speaking... however, i think this line is off by 2 TDs due to the public's failure to recognize how good they are...

consider this:  Snyder made a habit of pummeling Kansas all those years when K St was making title runs... it looks like he has this team back to playing that same kind of football, and Kansas is absolutely hopeless defensively...

bottom line:  i think Kansas St is just as capable of covering 30 points against Kansas as OU or Okie St, but they don't have that level of respect, so this line is a bargain...

i'm just hoping it gets bet down to 11 so i can get a real gift...

 

i appreciate your feedback, but remember, there are no gifts in this biz. good luck.

 
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Posted: #6

win big, I like where your head is at.  I won with Purdue and Ohio State last weekend and I'm on Purdue and Kansas.  Kansas may have a bad defense, but their offense can up numbers and they are at home.  Also, Oklahoma could not cover, so a less potent offense in Kansas State provides a good chance for Kansas to cover.  Instead of Air Force (+31), consider Boise St, 1st half.  Boise ALWAYS starts off strong and that bet has an AMAZING record ATS. 

Good luck this weekend.

 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by fadepublic14:

win big, I like where your head is at.  I won with Purdue and Ohio State last weekend and I'm on Purdue and Kansas.  Kansas may have a bad defense, but their offense can up numbers and they are at home.  Also, Oklahoma could not cover, so a less potent offense in Kansas State provides a good chance for Kansas to cover.  Instead of Air Force (+31), consider Boise St, 1st half.  Boise ALWAYS starts off strong and that bet has an AMAZING record ATS. 

Good luck this weekend.

 

i appreciate the heads up...just not my style to go with a huge fave even on a first half line. it would be a completely new experience for me. good luck bro

 
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Posted: #8
i said it many times before, on many posting forums, and i will say it again. short rest games are never easy for any favorite and especially for the road favorite. uab is at home, in a mid week game, they are trying to win their first game of the season, and to avenge last season loss against a dissapointing team that just lost another one. central florida not in a good mood right now. they expected big things but they are only 3-2 losing 3 or last 4, all three on the road. they outgained last 4 opponents by 480 yards but went 0-4 ats losing ats by 11.5 ppg. you can not win/cover games scoring 15 ppg. you can not cover 15.5 pts scoring 15 ppg. uab +15.5
 
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Posted: #9
final card:
kansas +12
purdue +6
air force +31
uab +15.5
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by win big:

boise is destroying opponents right now, but i don't see them covering this line against air force. both teams are controling the clock lately, and when two good clock controling teams meet each other, it takes a perfect game from a team to cover this line. air force lost three games already this season, by margins of 14, 16 and 26 points. however, they outgained all three opponents which is quite amazing. the other interesting thing about their three losses is that they kept on playing football until the last whistle despite being down big. against sdsu they scored the last td in the game. against notre dame they scored last 14 points in the game. and against tcu they scored last 10 points of the game. in last 4 games boise scored 14 4th quarter points and allowed 31 4th quarter points. the backdoor is wide open. air force +31


im on the other side of ur picks--- but let me give u a word of advice---- im not a BSU homer , must say.
 but for me BSU has been a  money making machine, i dont have all my BSU plays posted but so far ive only missed once, and let me tell u , ure way off my friend, BSU has a great Deffense , and this is the time of year when BSU blows out everybody ,if AF scores they will put up between 14-17 pts and BSU will hang 50+ on them and dont expect from this moment on from petersen to call off the dogs, didnt u see the game against lowly ColoradoST ,  they didnt give a rest , and its true BSU likes to control the clock, but they like to score fast, and in bunches , AF its a piss-poor team , they have nothing to compete against BSU , with what will AF will surprise them --- and playing in smurf-turf ----  i can tell u this  u only have 3 options

play BSU
play the Total over
No play
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by win big:

final card:
kansas +12
purdue +6
air force +31
uab +15.5


Good luck WB, you are consistently a solid capper and I always enjoy your insight into games.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by win big:

 

i appreciate your feedback, but remember, there are no gifts in this biz. good luck.




i guess if you mean that figuratively, as a figure of speech or mantra of gambling, then ok... but obviously in reality that is not at all true... there are many gifts every single week... that's why i am in this biz to begin with!


 
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Posted: #13

I really think you may need to take another look at the KU game.... Oklahoma had every chance in the world to cover last week, a couple of red zone turnovers and a piss poor called fumble basically cost OU 9-21 pts, Im just sayin that KU is absolutely TERRIBLE and i think this line is at least a TD off... I look for K State to win by 24+ something like 42-17 State...

 

either way, good luck!!!

 
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Posted: #14
 
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Posted: #15
Nice write ups!  BOL 
 
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Posted: #16
One thing to consider KST.has OU on deck. Maybe a look ahead!!!
 
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Posted: #17
Ok, I will add one more and thats it.

Clemson is walking on thin ice right now. They almost lost at Maryland last week and they barely covered against B.C. who by the way played without their leading rusher and best player. North Carolina is definately capable to upset Clemson here. They lost to Miami last week but outscored them 21-3 late to get close. Their running defense was spectacular not only last week but in last 3 games. That is very important before their game against that hot rushing offense from Clemson. North Carolina +10.5

final card:
kansas +12
purdue +6
air force +31
uab +15.5
n.carolina +10.5
 
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Posted: #18

Love your dog picks. 

GL

 
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Posted: #19
GL
 
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Posted: #20
 
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Posted: #21
final card:
kansas +12 <- I like
purdue +6 <-  I like
air force +31 <-  I disagree
uab +15.5 <-- no comment
n.carolina +10.5 <-- I like Virginia better or maybe I'm looking at the wrong game. 


X_____________________________
 
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Posted: #22

final card:


kansas +23.5
purdue +17.5
air force +42.5
uab +26

n.carolina +22

 

(adding 11.5)Now I like it a lot

 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by win big:

boise is destroying opponents right now, but i don't see them covering this line against air force. both teams are controling the clock lately, and when two good clock controling teams meet each other, it takes a perfect game from a team to cover this line. air force lost three games already this season, by margins of 14, 16 and 26 points. however, they outgained all three opponents which is quite amazing. the other interesting thing about their three losses is that they kept on playing football until the last whistle despite being down big. against sdsu they scored the last td in the game. against notre dame they scored last 14 points in the game. and against tcu they scored last 10 points of the game. in last 4 games boise scored 14 4th quarter points and allowed 31 4th quarter points. the backdoor is wide open. air force +31

Great Job!

 
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Posted: #24
What's your CFB record this year Big?
 
 
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Posted: #25

Win Big:

Just throwing out my .02 on that Air Force game.  The first thing is; Air Force is not controlling the clock.  Just because they are a running team, they're actually ranked 94th in time of possesion this year.  And for Boise, they can score in 10 seconds on any offensive play.  Tommy Reese had an absolute field day against this team.  He threw the ball like it was 7 on 7.  Air Force rushed 3 and dropped 8, and dudes wearing golden helmets were wide open all over the field.. all day long.

But the biggest problem betting on Air Force is; Boise's position in the BCS.  They play nobody the rest of the year.  This means in order for them to stay atop the rankings, they have to punish people on the scoreboard.  If Boise wants to remain in the conversation at the end of the year, with the other undefeated teams, they can't afford to have a score be remotely close.  People are going to argue against them at the end of the year, saying they played a weak schedule, but if their scores are constantly 63-17, then at least they will have a leg to stand on.  They can't afford their box scores to be close, b/c that is all the voters are going to be looking at on Sunday mornings.

Imo it's a risky bet, given the position of Boise in the BCS.  Air Force will have their hands full, and if Boise has ANY chance to keep thier foot on the gas pedal in this game, they will.  Especially since ND hung 55 on them.  This may sound crazy, but I bet you they know the score of that ND/Air Force game.  And it wouldn't shock me at all if they want their score to look better than ND's (just for pollsters to see).

 

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