Arizona State is a very impressive 7-2-2 ATS and Arizona is 6-5 ATS and 3-4 when the spread is under 10 pts.
This is going to be ASU's bowl game since they won't be bowling this year and would love to ruin Arizona's better bowl opportunity and have bragging rights for the game.
Team vs. comparisons has ASU 5-2-1 ATS vs Arizona 3-5 ATS and ASU combined scores 243-222 vs. Arizona 201-194.
ASU Offense: #12 passing, #29 in total yards, and #32 in total points scored. The question here is Sophmore QB (assuming he gets the start) Brock Osweiler the real deal after lighting up UCLA's defense last week at 380 yards, 4 tds, no INTS, and a 75% completion rate. At 6'8 242 he is a very big guy in the pocket and can move when necessary.
ASU Special Teams: This can be a difference maker as they are the #2 team in the nation on Kick returns and AZ is prone to giving up the big KO return.
ASU Defense: #17 in rushing defense, #62 in passing efficency although they are #98 in passing yards allowed. The defense is #58 in sacks and #7 in tackles for a loss. What I don't like at all is the turnover margin ranked 106 in the nation.
Arizona Offense: #9 in passing offense, #84 rushing and #19 in total offense. They are ranked #47 in scoring and Junior QB Nick Foles has thrown for 6 tds and 1 pick in his last two games. They do allow too much pressure on their QB #83 in sacks allowed, but Foles plays extremely well at home.
Arizona Defense: #43 rushing defense, #36 pass defense, #29 in sacks and #33 in tackles for a loss. #35 in total defense.. They are #50 in turnover margin.
Intersting Tidbits:
Keep in mind that ASU has played and could have beat 3 of the top 5 BCS teams in Stanford and Wisconsin AND had a 10pt lead against Oregon at the half.
Arizona is #112 in red zone offense scoring just 73% of the time and ASU is #5 in redzone defense allowing 28 scores on 43 trips. THis could mean more FG's than TD's for Arizona.
ASU has 3 players that have returned kicks for a TD this season a team record.
From a field position standpont ASU's return team along with the Nations #4 punter at 46.2 yards per kick could give ASU the field position advantage.
I see ASU having the advantage of wanting the game more because they know this is the seniors last game and they want to ruin Arizona's year by giving them their 4th straight loss. Interstate games are typically close so I'm going with ASU
Arizona State Sun Devils +5.5 (-120 bought half point to avoid push)