Posted:
#1
5-0 big NCAA, 2-0 big NFL plays.
Wake Forest +35
I am not expecting Wake to win, far from that, but I expect them to be competitive enough to stay withing this big line. I know that many will say "Wake has no chance, they scored no points last week and they scored no points last year against FSU", or something like that. The problem is, teams that scored 0 points previous Saturday and 0 points previous season vs same opponent are actually 23-5 ATS. Wake has a winning ATS record against only 2 ACC teams and one of them is FSU. Actually, their best ATS record against ACC teams is against FSU (12-9 ATS). FSU has 3 easy games before closing the regular season against Florida. This is a dangerous part of schedule for FSU backers. They can name the score against all three teams. However, if you look at last game they played against a non ranked team, you will notice that they slowed down once they had a comfortable lead. They had a 35-0 lead in the first against NCST, added another TD in the 2nd, and then let NCST outscore them 17-7 in the 2nd half. Games against Miami and Clemson were much more important, and FSU needed big convincing wins in both games, and they got them. They only need to win out and they will probably be at least #2. A convincing win against Florida will probably be needed, but they will not get any style points for big wins against Wake, Syracuse or Idaho. I just do not expect the Noles to run up the score here - because they do not need it.
Wake Forest +35
I am not expecting Wake to win, far from that, but I expect them to be competitive enough to stay withing this big line. I know that many will say "Wake has no chance, they scored no points last week and they scored no points last year against FSU", or something like that. The problem is, teams that scored 0 points previous Saturday and 0 points previous season vs same opponent are actually 23-5 ATS. Wake has a winning ATS record against only 2 ACC teams and one of them is FSU. Actually, their best ATS record against ACC teams is against FSU (12-9 ATS). FSU has 3 easy games before closing the regular season against Florida. This is a dangerous part of schedule for FSU backers. They can name the score against all three teams. However, if you look at last game they played against a non ranked team, you will notice that they slowed down once they had a comfortable lead. They had a 35-0 lead in the first against NCST, added another TD in the 2nd, and then let NCST outscore them 17-7 in the 2nd half. Games against Miami and Clemson were much more important, and FSU needed big convincing wins in both games, and they got them. They only need to win out and they will probably be at least #2. A convincing win against Florida will probably be needed, but they will not get any style points for big wins against Wake, Syracuse or Idaho. I just do not expect the Noles to run up the score here - because they do not need it.
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