Last week for week zero, I placed a 3 team ML parlay with 3 of the heavy favorites and it cashed 1u getting me about .4u in profit. I was going to also include ILLINI ML (who was a TD dog), but thought I'd be taking on too much risk. My profit would have been 1.7u if I had included Illini. I guess my question is, am I going to have to take on some more riskier ML plays like ILLINI during the course of the season to make this work? My thinking is if I happen to lose one of these parlays just using big favorites, it's gonna take over 2 of them just to get back to break even.
I don't expect to make a fortune with my strategy, but at the end of the season I want to see a profit. Should I just
A. continue with using strictly heavy ML favorites that I like
B. Mixing in some riskier plays (even dogs that I like) or
C. Creating 2 parlays each game set (if available), using both A and B?
Also, if I just choose option A, how many big ML faves is too much for 1 parlay?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Last week for week zero, I placed a 3 team ML parlay with 3 of the heavy favorites and it cashed 1u getting me about .4u in profit. I was going to also include ILLINI ML (who was a TD dog), but thought I'd be taking on too much risk. My profit would have been 1.7u if I had included Illini. I guess my question is, am I going to have to take on some more riskier ML plays like ILLINI during the course of the season to make this work? My thinking is if I happen to lose one of these parlays just using big favorites, it's gonna take over 2 of them just to get back to break even.
I don't expect to make a fortune with my strategy, but at the end of the season I want to see a profit. Should I just
A. continue with using strictly heavy ML favorites that I like
B. Mixing in some riskier plays (even dogs that I like) or
C. Creating 2 parlays each game set (if available), using both A and B?
Also, if I just choose option A, how many big ML faves is too much for 1 parlay?
I love that you brought this up. What I do every week is I find 3 or so Dogs (7 or more point range) that I think can win outright and parlay them together on the ML. If one of them hits it can pay for whole CFB season...
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I love that you brought this up. What I do every week is I find 3 or so Dogs (7 or more point range) that I think can win outright and parlay them together on the ML. If one of them hits it can pay for whole CFB season...
I love that you brought this up. What I do every week is I find 3 or so Dogs (7 or more point range) that I think can win outright and parlay them together on the ML. If one of them hits it can pay for whole CFB season...
+1 to this statement. I usually wait until the conference schedule kicks off, and then I go for home conference dogs to win outright.
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Quote Originally Posted by snakebite44:
I love that you brought this up. What I do every week is I find 3 or so Dogs (7 or more point range) that I think can win outright and parlay them together on the ML. If one of them hits it can pay for whole CFB season...
+1 to this statement. I usually wait until the conference schedule kicks off, and then I go for home conference dogs to win outright.
A option is setting up well again for Thursday (leaving off the BSU/CFLA and Ohio ST/MIN games). Bur Friday there are a lot of close spreads. Of course I could just skip Friday, but I probably wont. Will probably go with .5U bet or less for Friday's slate. Then of course Saturday there are more than enough huge spread games where I just have to decide how many of them do I take on one parlay.
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@xMORTICIANx
A option is setting up well again for Thursday (leaving off the BSU/CFLA and Ohio ST/MIN games). Bur Friday there are a lot of close spreads. Of course I could just skip Friday, but I probably wont. Will probably go with .5U bet or less for Friday's slate. Then of course Saturday there are more than enough huge spread games where I just have to decide how many of them do I take on one parlay.
Just because a bet wins quite frequently, doesn't mean it is profitable. I don't think there is any way you will make money on -1000 and greater favorites.
Also, parlaying them make it seem like you are getting better odds, but it is the same odds. If you wouldn't bet 100 on a team to win 10, then don't put them in a parlay.
Best of luck to you this season, if you do this, I hope you prove me wrong and win a nice chunk
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@the_dude911
Just because a bet wins quite frequently, doesn't mean it is profitable. I don't think there is any way you will make money on -1000 and greater favorites.
Also, parlaying them make it seem like you are getting better odds, but it is the same odds. If you wouldn't bet 100 on a team to win 10, then don't put them in a parlay.
Best of luck to you this season, if you do this, I hope you prove me wrong and win a nice chunk
Had success previously w favs in the 10-14 pt range at home. Two team. Wins may not be large but they will add up over time. Lower stress too. Often that third game that ruins it. GL
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Had success previously w favs in the 10-14 pt range at home. Two team. Wins may not be large but they will add up over time. Lower stress too. Often that third game that ruins it. GL
Yup round robins on these are solid. Gosh there was one I nearly hit for a massive massive payout 2 years ago. It was Army on the ML as 20 point dogs to Michigan I think and it went OT and was a bad beat. Sick to think what I would’ve made cause the other dogs I had both won at like +400 and +350 or something
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@thorpe
Yup round robins on these are solid. Gosh there was one I nearly hit for a massive massive payout 2 years ago. It was Army on the ML as 20 point dogs to Michigan I think and it went OT and was a bad beat. Sick to think what I would’ve made cause the other dogs I had both won at like +400 and +350 or something
"Just because a bet wins quite frequently, doesn't mean it is profitable"
Agreed. That is why I was considering mixing in more risky bets ie Illini ML as a dog last week as well. Like I said in my original post, losing one of these with just huge favorites, it is hard to make up ground because it would take more than 2 more big fave parlay wins just to get back to break even after a loss.
I was looking to try something different this year, but I want to try to stay as consistent as I can with my strategy. Maybe that is pointless who knows.
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@thorpe
"Just because a bet wins quite frequently, doesn't mean it is profitable"
Agreed. That is why I was considering mixing in more risky bets ie Illini ML as a dog last week as well. Like I said in my original post, losing one of these with just huge favorites, it is hard to make up ground because it would take more than 2 more big fave parlay wins just to get back to break even after a loss.
I was looking to try something different this year, but I want to try to stay as consistent as I can with my strategy. Maybe that is pointless who knows.
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