We're looking at balance, motivation and strength of schedule today in playing Arizona in the Advocare V100 bowl.
Balance: Boston College has none. While stud RB Andre Williams will most likely get his yards, I struggle to find what the Eagles will do if Arizona loads the box. Their lone offensive WR weapon is Alex Amidon and no other Eagle even has 10 receptions on the year. Amidon, who kind of resembles a Wes Welker, will most likely be doubled by ASU ball hawk Tra'Mayne Bondurant and we'll see how Amidon does against top tier DB coverage in ASU who ranks 22nd in the nation in picks. And that's in the Pac 12. Arizona's rush D ranks 70 which looks like it could be a problem with Williams running for the Eagles but breaking down their last 2 games, they were able to hold Oregon and ASU to under 200 yards. That may sound like a lot, but if you've watched either team play you know they run two of the most up-tempo offenses in the nation. Boston College will most likely look like a JV running attack after facing the Ducks and the Sun Devils.
Arizona, meanwhile, has a
dual threat QB in B.J. Denker who should be able make his fair share of
plays against a B.C. team that ranks 104 in pass efficiency defense and
considering their schedule that doesn't bode well for the Eagles. They
do get their share of sacks ranked 15th in the nation, but Arizona is
27th in pass sacks allowed and the D-lines in the Pac-12 are pretty
stout. The combination of a lot of sacks and horrible pass efficiency D
means we'll probably see a few Eagle blitzes smoked by Carey screens. I'll set the over under for Ka'deem Carey screen TD passes at 1.5 and lean to the over.
Motivation and strength of schedule: Boston College comes off a tough loss after blowing a lead to Syracuse, but they've won 4 of the last 5. That sounds like a good run, but 3 of those wins came against NC St, New Mexico St. and Maryland. Hardly "storm the field" types of victories that would generate momentum anyhow.
Arizona comes into the game with perhaps one of the most interesting psychological scenarios in recent bowl history. After blowing out then ranked #5 Oregon at home in impressive fashion the euphoria was short-lived when they got demolished by their in-state rival Arizona State the following week. While some might say this would deflate the Wildcats, I tend to think of it differently. To use a gambler's analogy, imagine winning a 10 team parlay one week for a few grand. Then, the next week, you go 0-7 on the day. All you can think about is how amazing it felt to win that 10 team parlay. Now what if this was your last chance to get that feeling back, which it is for Arizona seniors? I think they'll be plenty motivated. We grabbed Zona -6.5 for some extra juice but I have a tough time seeing how BC keeps up if they get behind by a few TDs. Good luck.
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