Alabama v. LSU BREAKDOWN!!!

I want to start out with some theoreticals again. First off, Alabama is at home. That is a huge advantage for a young quarterback(McElroy) and huge disadvantage for a young quarterback(Jefferson). Both teams will try to establish the run to protect their quarterbacks and maintain possession of the football. Lets take a look at Alabama run defense and offense.......

Alabama Rush Defense and Offense

v. Tenn. 35 / 76 / 2.2 ---- 30 / 136 / 4.5

v. S. Car  27 / 64 / 2.4 ----- 38 / 264 / 6.9

@ Ole Miss  23 / 72 / 3.1 ------ 41 / 200 / 4.9

v. Arkansas 26 / 63 / 2.4 ------- 41 / 134 / 3.3

v. Va. Tech  31 / 64 / 2.1 ------- 49 / 268 / 5.5

As you can see Alabama has a stellar rushing defense. No one has been able to eclipse the 100 yards rushing mark against them this year. I dont expect LSU to be the team to do so. Alabama also has perhaps the strongest run game in the nation with heisman candidate Mark Ingram carrying the load. Now lets now take a look at LSU's rushing defense and offense

LSU rushing Defense / Offense

v. Auburn   41 / 112 / 2.7 ------ 32 / 122 / 3.8

v. Florida   48 / 193 / 4.0 ------ 30 / 66 / 2.2

@ UGA     24 / 45 / 1.9 ------  45 / 156 / 3.5

@ Miss St. 46 / 151 / 3.3 ------- 31 / 30 / 1.0

LSU has had a decent rush defense so far this year. Shutting down UGA but giving up some success to Florida, Miss St. and Auburn. If you take a closer look at the miss st. game you will see LSU could have very easily lost. They won by 4 points and miss st. had 4 turnovers while LSU had 0. The LSU rush offense has been inept against a great Florida D and Miss St. They ran well against a horrible UGA defense and a sub par Auburn defense. I am thinking that Alabama is going to have a much easier time establishing the run and giving McElroy a chance to make some plays off of the PA.  LSU I just dont think will be able to get anything going being @ Alabama. I think LSU will be lucky to put up 10 points in this football game.

Just want to touch on each of the QBs. McElroy has had some very lack luster performances. He threw two interceptions v. S. Carolina and only 92 yards. Very poor performance considering the rushing success they had. He also only had 120 yards against TENN. Doesn't give you a lot of confidence in him against LSU but I think the Alabama run will give him enough support.

J. Jefferson has actually had some pretty good performances. Florida held him to 96 yards with an interception. He did put over 200 on UGA, Miss St., Auburn with only one interception. I like Jefferson more than McElroy but it will boil down to each of their rushing attacks.

Alabama wins 

23 - 10

BOL

I agree. I think the UNDER is an amazing play here. I think LSU will score about 6 - 10 points and Alabama no more than 24 -28. You max out both of those and your still hitting the under. Just as it was with the Alabama/ Tenn. game I could see it comming in at under 30 total points.

BOL

LSU @ Alabama -7.5/40

I hardly ever jump on my own team and with all the variables and emotions this game brings i surely wont be able to have an unbiased opinion.Therefore i couldnt choose a side .But...totals are a diferent story.I see this one looking like the florida /lsu game.I dont see Lsu puting up 20 on alabama ,13 or 16 tops and i dont see Bama scoring more than 24.I will play the under in the rest of Alabama's SEC contest aslong as the total is 40 or more until Mcelroy comes out of his slump.You cant ever tell how a game will go but LSU really isnt a Defense i expect anyone to break out against,and i dont see any offense in the sec more dominate than bama's defense.

UNDER 40

Bodog.com has the over / under at 40. Personally I think that is money in the bank. Sportsbook.com has the money trends as 75% going on the Under. Makes me worry a bit but still think its a great bet.

Tomorrow will be a good game guys either team could win this one.  Advantage Bama, but LSU will not be intimidated or rollover dead.  If I bet this game I will play the under.  Good luck Bama guys LSU will give you your moneys worth tomorrow.

john chavis d will win this game for LSU

he knows saban's tendencies with the QB from his days at Tenn and Saban's day at LSU

great chess match here