ARMY VS. NAVY: Oh look, the books gave us one more game to cap. Ok, we'll burn them on this one too!

2016 Record: 34-16 (68%)

I hold two pages of write-up in my hand as I type this. I like to write. Physically, with pen and paper. If I could, if I lived in days gone by, I'd write with goose quill tip dipped gently into ink jar on papyrus. Maybe I'd be wearing a wig like one of those Founding Father wigs with lots of curls in them as I wrote. Maybe someone would be playing a religious hymn a harp with angels carved into it in the background as I wrote by candlelight to inspire. Maybe I'd live in a house that I built with my own hands like Michael Landon in Little House on the Prairie. If tomorrow we need milk, we milk the cows by hand on a small wooden stool which I also built. Maybe I take the papyrus over to the fire which toasts the bread we will have for dinner. Bread and water. Water and Bread. Maybe I throw the write-up in the fire. Maybe I watch it burn. Maybe as it burns, if you look close enough you can see the rising fire reflecting in my pupils. Maybe a small grin comes across my face. Maybe I cackle as all this happens, my hands steepled fingertip to fingertip.

Wait a minute. This story is partially true. I did just burn a 2 page write-up. It was a write-up which endorsed Navy. That write-up now billows to the heavens in small smoke stacks.

The pick:

ARMY +5.5 over NAVY

Enough with the pleasant fictions. Why did I come off Navy Because for the innumerable advantages for Army. And here they are, like never before. When you take a team as historically bad as Army, you better bring the goods. I have the goods right here.

1. "If you can't beat the Walking Wounded, who can you beat?" angle.

Navy has never been more the Walking Wounded than they are right now:

Simply stated, the injury report is astonishing:

Navy – Quarterback Will Worth (foot), wide receiver Tyler Carmona (foot), slotbacks Toneo Gulley (Lisfranc), Darryl Bonner (concussion), Josh Brown (left ankle) and Josh Walker (left shoulder), inside linebacker Mike Kelly (shoulder) and outside linebacker Josiah Powell (leg) are all out; Cornerback Elijah Merchant (head) and wide receiver Craig Scott (ankle) are questionable; slotback Dishan Romine (head) and inside linebacker Hudson Sullivan (knee) are probable.

This is in addition to the other key injuries suffered throughout the year, including Tago Smith, bringing the total out for year to a whopping 10. This very site has the total injuries at 16. Tago Smith was ages ago? It's true. But it's an indication of starter after starter after starter going down.

Army - Andy Davidson is questionable. And that's IT!

Huge advantage for what is almost a 100% healthy Army team.

On this point ALONE it would not be unreasonable to say that in the history of this rivalry, there has NEVER been a more contrasting injury report, this one clearly favoring Army. That's going back to 1890. If there was a bigger injury disparity it came during wartime, LITERALLY, and there would be some slightly more important things going on than injury reports for a football game.

 But it gets worse for Navy.

2. The remaining healthy players are tattered and torn because of the missing bye week.

Navy was supposed to play East Carolina on the Thursday following the win over Houston. That game was postposed due to Hurricane Matthew. So it was a bye that wasn't a bye, when they didn't need it and weren't planning for it.

Instead, because of the Hurricane, and because Navy has played for it's conference championship, Navy will have played for 8 straight weeks. The injury report, be it luck or lack of rest, bears the rotten fruits of their bye gone bye-bye.

NEVER has Navy played 8 straight weeks leading up to their all-time historic Army game.

But this is compounded by something even worse for Navy.

3. Navy has never had less than even a two week break to face Army since ....1941.

Traditionally, these schools have had at least two weeks to prepare for their rivalry game. And for good reason. The world's eyes are on them with pride, celebrating the military along with the military men and women themselves.

But this year, Navy had it's conference championship to play in. That means Navy has had, get this, ONLY THREE full practices to prepare for Army (1 day rest, 1 day film and media, 3 practice and 1 day travel, then game day) = 6 days in between the game.

That is the fewest number of practices EVER in 117 meetings. Think about how historic this lack of preparation is. This has NEVER happened.

And on the other side of the ball?

4. Army has been preparing for this game for THREE weeks, and it really is FOUR.

November 19th, Army last played. Almost three full weeks to prepare for this game. But here's one better: They played Morgan State that day and destroyed them. That is an FCS team. A very bad FCS team. I can assure you, given the lip service the coaching staff gave about preparing for Navy, Army has been preparing for Navy for FOUR weeks not 3.

Army has NEVER had that much time to game-plan for Navy in 117 games. 117. Never.

And you counter with "Rust Scal, Rust." And I answer with, "Would you rather have played 8 straight weeks without a bye for the first time since 1941?"

Look at both sides of the coin here folks. Not just one side. Rust does not even remotely compare.

And it STILL gets worse for Navy.

5. From Will Worth to Zach Abbey.

NEVER before has a Navy player, not QB, any player generated so much offense. 2,595 yards. A Navy Single season record. AN FBS leading 25 rushing TD's. An additional 8 passing TD's.

Who replaces this? Zach Abbey.

This is his first collegiate start.

He was not on the depth chart last year. He is only in this position because of the slew of injuries absorbed by this team. He is a sophomore playing in what is the most famous rivalry in the world. In his first start. In 2.5 quarters last week he threw 13 passes. 2 of the 13 were intercepted. And now he assumes a record breakers roll in what is one of Navy's greatest seasons.

Amazingly, Will Worth is not the team's offensive captain. Toneo Gulley is. He's their best slot back. He's gone too. Went down on the same play. This doesn't even speak to the injury list above which I can go on and on about.

Sometimes you have the "Star Player Down, other players step up theory". This works for players like Lebron in the NBA. But the NBA is different. Players can take control in an intimate on-the -court environment and really rally round eachother. In the physical game of football, in the cold, with two teams playing offense and defense, this is a bit lost.

The psychological impact of losing Worth and Gulley and many others is troubling to say the least for Navy backers. This team has had three days to prepare compared to a month, suffered a bruising loss to Temple where they weren't even competitive and now they must get up for Army. They will get up, but can they match Army's intensity punch for punch, play for play with this much missing and so little rest and recoup. I say no.

Scal you have even MORE worse for Navy? Yes, we are not done. Sit tight!

6. 14 Army losses in a row

Long losing streaks are very powerful. Teams want to snap them. If they can't they wait until the final day, the final moment. This is that day. It's all here. LOOK at the advantages above. If Army can not win this game, when will they beat Navy???

Look at Arizona, an AWFUL team this year. Nine losses in a row. In comes their rival? They destroyed them on the last day.

In an era of social media a FOURTEEN YEAR losing streak is definitely front and center in these players minds. Army has been consistently terrible and Navy has been consistently good. But look at the last 4 years:

21-17, 17-10, 34-7, 17-13, 27-21.

And you want to know how many wins Army had those years? 2 wins, 4 wins. 3 wins, 2 wins, 3 wins.

Army a consistently a bad team (and this is definitely their best of the last 5 years), has come closer and closer and closer to knocking off some excellent Navy teams!

In comparison, the Army team, who will play North Texas in a bowl, has a nice amount of confidence! We need confidence here. The importance of ending this streak looms large here, especially getting points.

You could counter with, "Well Scal, they didn't win at 13, 12, 11 or 10, why now? Army has covered 4 of the last 5 getting a ton of points 21, 16.5, 6, 7 and they didn't even need most of what we get here with a better team.

7. Army's defense

I know the schedule is poor but it's still worth noting:

19th best run defense in the nation.

14th best scoring defense

6th best in opponents passing yards allowed.

Honestly, I don't ever remember Army having this much effectiveness on defense in my life, even with terrible schedules.

I have watched Navy's defense and the eye test tells me one thing: It's bad. End of story. You saw it this year folks. This is a bad defense against the run and pass.

104th in opponent's pass yards.

67th in run defense

81st in scoring defense.

This is a bad defense. Why? The offense has scored SO much and has eaten up so much clock, the defense does not need to be good.

I really want to take the ML, but I'll take the points because....Army.

8. POTUS

Trump will be in attendance. He is a pro-war/pro-military president. Is this good for Army or Navy or neither? Army. More spectacle, far more than ever before with Trump as a national lightening rod. More eyeballs. More media. More security and pomp and circumstance. This is more motivation for the underdog. Navy already had a great season and played for its conference championship. It doesn't need 'extras' to enhance it's superior game. This is standard. Not a big point but worth noting.

Counter-points for NAVY.

What are their advantages?

Head Coach is light years better. Gameplan/functioning/O-Lines are far better(important for blocking when you run the option). Army's schedule was trash compared to Navy so their stats are inflated. Also their receivers are far bigger than Army's corners so I expect Navy to throw.

BUT, if Navy gets into a throwing contest, they will be out of their element. They tried this against Air Force and lost. Curiously, Air Force runs the option and Navy should be all over that. They know how to defend it obviously. But they threw 31 times! with Will Worth and lost 28-14. If they throw tomorrow, again, it will be uncharted waters, especially with a QB in his first start.

Finally, many here want to take Army but 'missed out' on a bigger spread.

The spread is imaginary. It doesn't exist. We make it exist. The game itself does exists. YOUR CAP and the time you take the do that as the line bounces around is FAR more important than a point here or there. In this case, it cost me several points from an opening of 10 in some places. That's fine because I think Army can win the game. So I'll take all 5.5 and be quite happy.

Quote Originally Posted by GirlandGamble:

thanks

And Girl, don't pay attention to the "So many people on Army on the board" posts. I can't tell you how many "Covers Bloodbath" threads quietly disappeared into oblivion when a popular forum pick came in.

 thanks scal that's great you are my favorite writer let me know when and where I can buy your book I wanna get like 10 of them

army it is lets do this im acutally gonna watch this game now