Posted:
#1
Quote Originally Posted by Cooler999:
24 ..YIKES
24 ..YIKES
Nothing makes me feel dumber (at least gambling wise) than UNLOADING on what I viewed as a very attractive line, and then seeing it go to more than a FG in the other direction. We all bet lines and see slight movement against us, but OVER A FG! My book has it as WKU +24.5. If I had "nibbled" at +21, then no big deal....just start betting more on the better line on such a strong lean. But, I bet large at WKU +21.
I just emptied the roll on WKU +24.5. The smart thing, perhaps, would have been to just let the large wager play out, and maybe I am being bated. However, I think Marshall is over rated. I think squares are pushing the line. They see an 11-0 team that just broke the top 25 and is now ranked #24 nationally, and their highly rated defense that is #6 in the country. These are people that don't dig deeper. I see a defense that is ranked #6 in the country because they haven't played a good offense yet, thus making the #6 ranking seriously skewed. I see a surging WKU team that Doughty, Dangerfield, and Allen probably not winning, but scoring some gaddam points!
So, go ahead and take Marshall, and tell me about their #6 nationally rated defense, and WKU's horrendous defense ranked at #116 nationally (that part is true, it is horrendous). While you're scratching the surface about national rankings, I'm doing the sweat labor and digging far deeper. I'm looking at why teams are ranked as they are. I am looking at how they've played lately. I am thinking about such things as "this is Doughty's last game in college, how will his team rally for him (big, BTW)?"
WKU +21 - Large
WKU +24.5 - UBER LARGE
A couple of final thoughts:
1) Why get so amped over such "non-sexy" game? I've made FAT STACKS on the games that are not on the radar.
2) IF, and I mean IF, WKU can get up with an early TD, I will limit this much exposure by buying Marshall at any number under -21. I will still be large on WKU, but probably shouldn't have thousands of dollars on it. I am in BALLS DEEP. If Marshall is up and running off the bat, then there is no escape route, and it will just have to play out.
3) While the line movement sucks for me, it makes me no less right or wrong for pounding WKU +21. I don't think the lines makers play the game.
4) If I lose this, I am taking a break for a while. Not because of any embarrassment on this forum, but because it will be a big loss of several thousand dollar. I can take it, but I don't want to gamble just to chase. Not the type to start a fake ID and start over.....some of us are real money betters. And some of us do bet in the thousands. Not trying to sound like a big shot....my normal bet is around $100 = $250.
If I lose, life is good. First anniversary with girlfriend, and she planned something big. All I know is to be at Miami International Airport on Wed at 9:30 AM, and the destination/trip/itinerary is a surprise. I don't know if I am going to New York, LA, or around the corner to the fridgen' Bahamas. I do know that I am paying for it, but it's very sweet of her to make a big deal out of our first year.
Good luck guys.....and....
GO HILLTOPPERS!!!!!!!!
PS - If I lose, see you in a few months, right after I re-enter this thread, long enough to take my medicine like a man.
PPS- At least I wear my balls on my sleeve before kickoff.
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