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Auburn vs. Mississippi State (Discussion)

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by GroveCity:

This thread was generated for general (educated) opinions and facts about this game. I believe the more facts (i.e. ATS records, Thursday night game stats for each team, etc.) we can generate, the better opinion we can form.  
This thread is not for "MSU sucks Auburn rolls" type comments...Now....Go

These are 5 points I feel are important to this game...

1. State has a 2 QB system (a "running" QB and a "throwing" QB) designed for a spread offense.  Relf (running QB) does a good job with the read option, etc as he is a bull (6' 3" ish and 240 lbs).  However, he does not throw the ball well.  Especially downfield.  Russell (throwing QB) is a sophomore with limited experience that has a tendency to get rattled fairly easy and is prone to bad decisions.  (see the Memphis game, as he threw a few balls that should have been going the other way).

2.  Memphis is god-awful...The Little Giants could have put 49 on them, however I don't believe this indicates MSU's offense is a slouch.  They will spread the ball around to their playmakers (their best being WR Chap Bumphis) via screens, end-arounds, reverses, Wildcat, etc.  I feel Auburn can contain this, as they run THE SAME OFFENSE under Gus Malzahn.  

3.  Cam Newton can do it all, I believe MSU will try to get to him early and often, however their offense is designed to get rid of the ball quickly.  There will be alot of man vs man opportunities against State's secondary, that a good QB can exploit.  The difference to me is he can push the ball downfield, State cannot.

4.  Is Auburn's defense susceptible to the big play? Possibly.....with 8 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter against Ark. State, the score was 35-23.  Ark. State was able to spread the ball around in a similar manner that State will try and exploit.  Can Auburn shore this up before Thursday? I think so.... Ethridge for Auburn was just cleared for contact 2 weeks ago.  I believe with a game under his belt, he will be able to settle in and contribute in a big way Thursday.

5. Thursday night game....Obviously the nation will be watching and Starkville, MS will be rocking.  Alot of controversy has been surrounding the cowbell and when they can ring them.  This makes a tremendous noise difference, as their stadium, due to both ends being open, is not very loud without them.  WIll the officials enforce the ringing rules?( i.e. can only ring them at certain times in the game as in after scores, timeouts ,etc.  Not while Auburn has the ball)  This will be a factor for the noise level....

I feel the line is fishy at -2.  However, this IS a home game State, on a Thursday night, in the SEC.  I expected the line to be Auburn  -6 to  -7.  This line is begging for Auburn action, and I believe I will be taking the bait and going Auburn....What say ye??

 

Just to clarify. The Refs CAN NOT penalize MSU for excessive noise.  It is no longer a penalty.  The SEC can fine Miss State, but under no circumstance can the referee call a penalty.  I think you make some very good points.  I would not underestimate MSU's defense.  The potentially have the best front 7 in the SEC with two first round draft picks in DL Pernell McPhee(nom) and LB KJ Wright.  I am not certain, but I believe MSU lead the SEC in interceptions last year and they lost no one in the secondary.  Alot of people see this as a shoot out, but I think you are going to see a traditional grind it out SEC football Game.

 

MSU 24 AUB 20

 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by GroveCity:

I can agree with that....I just have a hard time believing State will be able to line up and run over Auburn with the loss of Dixon.  He was their offense last season.

The Thursday night stats given earlier in the thread by MoneyMakinMoe will be probably be enough to make this a no play for me. A total play could be the best bet.....Better games are on the board for this weekend...

 

Its the SEC...teams re-load at RB.  I am a Miss State fan, but am not afraid to bet against them.  The loss of Dixon is not as significant as it may appear on the surface. Dixon was a grind it out RB which is totally different than the type of RB Mullen's system is used.  If you look at the RB by committee MSU has in place now, it fits the scheme ALOT better.  Could be wrong, but watch out for Laderius Perkins!  By the way the other two running backs are both 4 star recruits, so I am not very worried about the drop off at RB.

 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by GroveCity:


While I agree it is often fishy that a line never moves and one side is pounded, etc. etc.  I find it hard to believe that "guys" in Vegas are keeping the line down because they secretly know who is going to win, thus they want to public to load up on one side.  If they lived by that, all of those pretty lights in Vegas would go out....JMO

Except for when the guys in Vegas make the lights go out, lol (Wisconsin-UNLV game, most of you know the one).

The one thing that stood out from last week's games was in the AUB-ArkSt game in how it was so close in the 3rd qtr and then AUB kicked it into high gear when they needed to. It's not they were inept during the 1st three qtrs of play but the other way around.

If Thursday's game comes down to the 4th qtr, who might have a slight edge? Even though last week's opponents were fluff, AUB has the added confidence of week1's finish. Just something to think about. 

 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by ryan8186:

 

Its the SEC...teams re-load at RB.  I am a Miss State fan, but am not afraid to bet against them.  The loss of Dixon is not as significant as it may appear on the surface. Dixon was a grind it out RB which is totally different than the type of RB Mullen's system is used.  If you look at the RB by committee MSU has in place now, it fits the scheme ALOT better.  Could be wrong, but watch out for Laderius Perkins!  By the way the other two running backs are both 4 star recruits, so I am not very worried about the drop off at RB.


I can respect that, I just thought Dixon was the primary catalyst last year and pretty much carried the offense with his toughness.  When state needed that 3rd and 3, he got it by running through whomever he needed to.  I just don't believe Robert Elliot has that kind of heart....

I can agree that Dixon did not fit Mullen's system as well, but he made up for it with his will. JMO
 
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Posted: #30
Auburn covers Im thinking! Gl Fellas!
 
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Posted: #31
First off, Anyone know what the line was for Miss St. Coming into Auburn last year? I cant for the life of me remember...

Ok, right to it.... big Auburn fan here so I'm definitely drinking the Orange and Blue Kool-Aid. Pissed cuz I can't explain the -2 line or the reverse line movement here...i guess the biggest question mark is Auburns D. And fucking cowbells.

I wont deny Miss St. moved the football well last week, but against who? Memphis's D is terrible...way worse than ArkySt, (who i think finished 41st last year). I know that part of the reason for this line is AU giving up 26 to ArkySt, but AU's improved on D as the game went on.  Arky St. held close for a while..35-23 (13:16 left in 3rd) but then the Auburn D stood up and allowed only 3 more points after that. All the while Auburn kept scoring at will. Auburn's D struggled in the secondary early last week but held it together late in the game...meaning Miss St. has a chance to keep it close, but i still dont think they will.

I wouldn't put too much clout into Miss. St holding Memphis to only 7 points either...good job guys, but Memphis won 2 games last year, and finished 7 games with less than 16 points. I would expect about 10 points or so against an SEC D....so 7 isn't too far off that number.

I know the game is in Starkville...I think the cowbells are nothing more than a ridiculous gimmick. Bring the noise, your fucking arm will give out after the 1st half when its 35-10 AUB.


Bottom Line....I really feel like AUB will score over 40 and Miss St wont break 30



War Damn Eagle
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by USMCatc777:

First off, Anyone know what the line was for Miss St. Coming into Auburn last year? I cant for the life of me remember...

Ok, right to it.... big Auburn fan here so I'm definitely drinking the Orange and Blue Kool-Aid. Pissed cuz I can't explain the -2 line or the reverse line movement here...i guess the biggest question mark is Auburns D. And fucking cowbells.

I wont deny Miss St. moved the football well last week, but against who? Memphis's D is terrible...way worse than ArkySt, (who i think finished 41st last year). I know that part of the reason for this line is AU giving up 26 to ArkySt, but AU's improved on D as the game went on.  Arky St. held close for a while..35-23 (13:16 left in 3rd) but then the Auburn D stood up and allowed only 3 more points after that. All the while Auburn kept scoring at will. Auburn's D struggled in the secondary early last week but held it together late in the game...meaning Miss St. has a chance to keep it close, but i still dont think they will.

I wouldn't put too much clout into Miss. St holding Memphis to only 7 points either...good job guys, but Memphis won 2 games last year, and finished 7 games with less than 16 points. I would expect about 10 points or so against an SEC D....so 7 isn't too far off that number.

I know the game is in Starkville...I think the cowbells are nothing more than a ridiculous gimmick. Bring the noise, your fucking arm will give out after the 1st half when its 35-10 AUB.


Bottom Line....I really feel like AUB will score over 40 and Miss St wont break 30



War Damn Eagle

What's your feeling with Ethridge and Savage in the secondary??

  Ethridge just got cleared two weeks ago for full contact, and looked a little rusty...

Savage, I believe, was injured too.... Do you feel they make an improvement from game 1 to game 2?
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by GroveCity:


What's your feeling with Ethridge and Savage in the secondary??

  Ethridge just got cleared two weeks ago for full contact, and looked a little rusty...

Savage, I believe, was injured too.... Do you feel they make an improvement from game 1 to game 2?

According to the coaches, alot of it was already fixed.....during the game against ArkySt even....Just hear me out.

AU special teams gave ArkySt the ball on the AU 27 by fumbling the opening kickoff of the second half...leading to a quick score...After that, (the last 28:16 of the game) Arky St. had only ONE drive that had more than ONE first down. Yes those 2 have room for improvement, and yes I think that time off due to injury affected them. I think though that they will only get better, and I think the score gave ArkySt a little more credit than they deserved.
 
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Posted: #34
I see....I feel better about Auburn knowing they only gave up 43 yards on the ground.  I feel that will be the majority of State's offense (i.e. Relf).  If they can shut him down, Tyler Russell will not be able to complete 80% of his passes like he did against Memphis...

The flip side to this is that state only gave up 41 rushing yards to Memphis, however, I think Auburn is alot more dangerous through the air than State.....
 
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Posted: #35
and by that I mean.....

If both teams shut down each others running game, I am more comfortable with Auburn's ability to move the ball through the air....Just to clarify
 
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Posted: #36
Here's the problem....Auburn IS more dangerous through the air than Miss St....and they wont shut down Auburn's passing game. Auburn IS more dangerous on the ground than Miss St....and they wont shut down Auburn's running game. Heres why:

Auburn's O line averages 6' 5" 307, returns 4 starters...one of, if not the best O- Lines in the SEC, probably top ten(ish) in the nation. Plus you throw in Dyer, McCalebb, Fanni at RB/TB/HB spots and oh yeah....THE QUARTERBACK IS A FREAK. A FREAKY FREAK OF NATURE.


 
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Posted: #37
No they wont....but Auburn should be able to hold MSU to around 100 on the ground IMO. I think the running games will be the difference in this game...Auburn rushes for 250+
 
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Posted: #38
I think AU gives up more points than they want to, but I see alot of FG attempts for Miss St...and alot of TD's for Auburn...something that comes along with the running game edge. I also just don't think in the long run Miss St. will be able to FINISH against a more talented, and better conditioned team player to player.
 
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Posted: #39

Quote Originally Posted by USMCatc777:

No they wont....but Auburn should be able to hold MSU to around 100 on the ground IMO. I think the running games will be the difference in this game...Auburn rushes for 250+

 

You do realize we have 2 potentially 3 first round draft picks on the defensive line at Miss State.  Pernell McPhee (who Mel Kiper has already said is the best in the SEC) Fletcher Cox and Josh Boyd.  No way in hell you run for 250, I bet you dont crack 100. 

 

Bottom line is MSU wants this game more than Auburn and it will show tomorrow.  I wish it was here!!

 
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Posted: #40
I'll be there!
 
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Posted: #41
I don't see MSU being able to stop Cam and the Auburn offense.  Auburn has questions on D and MSU will score, but people are overreacting to MSU's blow out of an AWFUL Memphis team.  I like MSU because Mullen is the HC, but Auburn's offense with Cam at the helm is extremely dangerous.  He can do it all and will make plays all night long.  Auburn by 7-10
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by ryan8186:

 

You do realize we have 2 potentially 3 first round draft picks on the defensive line at Miss State.  Pernell McPhee (who Mel Kiper has already said is the best in the SEC) Fletcher Cox and Josh Boyd.  No way in hell you run for 250, I bet you dont crack 100. 

 

Bottom line is MSU wants this game more than Auburn and it will show tomorrow.  I wish it was here!!


I can agree that McPhee is a potential 1st rounder, but it is a stretch to claim the same for Cox and Fletcher.  Both of them are just starting their 2nd season in the SEC.  They both have to have stellar Sophomore AND Junior campaigns to be even in that conversation.....
 
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Posted: #43
Is auburn ranked?
 
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Posted: #44
Guys 2 years ago the final was 3-2 so it could go Under 56 easily if the defenses decide to show up
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by zanman822:

Guys 2 years ago the final was 3-2 so it could go Under 56 easily if the defenses decide to show up

Completely different coaches, completely different offensive schemes....This is not a reliable source for any relevant information for this game....
 
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Posted: #46
two years ago means nothing. auburn has a whole new coaching staff
 
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Posted: #47
On the surface you would think Auburn. I am concerned that the defense is in a flux. Chisik was even up in the defense coordinators face during the Ark State game. Cameron Newton is an awesome addition but also brings a huge motivating factor to Mississippi State after he was pictured ringing a cowbell at the Ole Miss Msu game last fall. Dan Mullen coached recruited and coached him at Florida so if there are flaws he knows them. Begining to think Mullen is a great Coach....Florida has not been the same since he left. My gut tells me this could be a real ambush for Auburn .... Mississippi State could win by 10.   
 
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Posted: #48
great point about mullen!
 
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Posted: #49

Quote Originally Posted by USMCatc777:

No they wont....but Auburn should be able to hold MSU to around 100 on the ground IMO. I think the running games will be the difference in this game...Auburn rushes for 250+

 

 

IMO 0% chance that either of those things will happen.This is year two of Dan Mullen's offensive scheme and you can expect the Bulldogs to start moving nearer to being the offensive juggernaut that Florida,Utah,and Bowling Green were under Mullen.And there is no way that the 'Dawgs give up 250 yards rushing to AU in Starkville.

Mississippi State wins this game! 

 
 
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Posted: #50

Before the season started this is a game I had my eye on.  The Bulldogs have had this game circled on their calender ever since Cam Newton left them at the alter in favor of Auburn.

I've always felt like Auburn would probably sqeak by in this game, but before the season started I was thinking I could probably get something close to 7 on the home team.  With the line as tight as it is, I see no value there whatsoever.

Auburn's D looked strikingly similar to last year's porus unit in week 1 versus Arky State, but I wouldn't put too much stock in that performance.  With Newton running wild on Arky St., Cheese Wiz was able to keep things very vanilla on the defensive side of the ball.  Chizik vows to "dramatically change" the defense for the Bulldogs by bringing more blitzes and more pressure.

Chizik's remarks notwithstanding, I still don't think this defense has enough quality depth to be an effective unit for a game much less a season.  But with the evil genius Gus Malzahn pulling the levers on offense, they will probably still win their fair share of games this season.

I think this game to be an absolute war, and has the potential to be the game of the week.  I think it'll be a very high scoring affair (something like 41-38 ala last season's Nortwestern game).  Therefore, I think the best play in this game is OVER whatever the total is.

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