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Auburn/LSU - Latest (full) analysis post Troy, and THE PLAY

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Posted: #1
So 90% of us (and the public are on auburn)... NC State last week was my biggest (10 unit) play of the year. I already have 5 on auburn and am pondering making this my biggest play of the year. What holds me back? This damn line - that suck to my stomach feeling that I'm getting trapped, I know it, and I'm still betting large as the sucker... 

90% of public on auburn and yet this line only moved from -6 to -7 early in the week and stayed right here. Line could move to -8 and public would still hammer auburn... so the books are begging us to take this bait... whyyy??

The line says that auburn either blows out LSU or loses outright. And there is a decent arguement for LSU right? Massive rivalry, throw out the records and current season analytics, this game will be close! Auburn hasnt won at Baton Rouge in nearly 20 years and this will be no different. Remember 2013 - A goes into LSU, gets waxed for only regular season loss, beats #1 and #5 teams and goes on to lose in national title game by a FG... gahhhh, I'm have dejavu nightmares with my girl friend saying - "Titus you moron, you knew this, way to squander our Caribbean cruise money" as she hits me with the door and never returns - not because I lost but because the answer was so obvious... 

common opponents, SoS and quality of wins, injuries, and simple eye test show this to be a complete mismatch... but that dreaded trap line... see the thing for me is - auburn is a suprerior team to that week 2 dormant loss to Clemson... I have no faith in that weak sauce Florida win but thank gawd it happened or we could have a different line here. After watching Troy last night, I'm thinking LSU did what vs. Troy. It's not just that Troy is a non-quality team, their coach is a moron - did you see him wasting 15 seconds before calling TOS - indecision and umm low IQ??  

New coach, new culture at LSU combined with weakest LSU - I'm taking the bait - Auburn -6 (5 units), -6.5 (5 units), -7 (5 units). If LSU ML gets to +275 ill hedge 3 units LSU ML...

Your thoughts welcome... call me a moron, I welcome it

 
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Posted: #2
*combined with weakest LSU I've seen in the last decade - I'm taking the bait 
 
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Posted: #3

Allow me to play the contrarian here. Ive had my eye on this game. I took LSU last week vs Florida precisely because their stock had bottomed out and no one was backing them vs rival on the road... No one gave em a chance..... im seeing similar scenario here... Allow me to give my 2 cents....

 

The strength of LSU defense is vs the pass. They have legit disrupters in the pass rush and the LSU secondary has always been a strength on that defense. Their weakness is vs the run.... Florida could not exploit this because they couldnt muster enuff pass game. LSU keyed on the run and forced Florida into long situations. When Florida ran in 2nd half, they found holes like grand canyon.... but could only do it while ahead on down and distance and that wasnt very often.

So we know how to beat LSU defense but the question is, can Auburn do it? If they think Stidham is gonna drop back 30x against this defense and be successful, well then best of luck..... because I think that plays right into LSU hands... Auburn is gonna hafta run with success to cover the number

Auburn running the ball without Pettway isnt very productive. And while Sidham has played well, he hasnt seen a pass rush or secondary like LSU since Clemson game... And im lil doubtful Auburn recievers can beat these corners....

Can Stidham beat LSU pass defense?

Can Auburn run the ball effectively to create manageable downs and distance for Stidham?

 

Now that only explains half of the ball.... Auburn defense is legit dangerous and I cant tell you how LSU will score vs Auburn. But i think at home, LSU will luck into a couple big plays... 

My personal opinion on this game is that I dont see it going over 30... 

id say 13-9 Auburn with a LSU cover

 
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Posted: #4
Great writeup.  I've commented in a few threads those exact thoughts.  Again, the only reason the line is where it is because of the previous matchups and the fact that it's being played in Death Valley.  It does not favor LSU, however, that it's a 2:30pm CST kickoff.  I'm a diehard LSU fan but I'm on Auburn -6.5. 
 
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Posted: #5

Just to be clear... Im playing the UNDER on this one lol i wouldnt bet my money on LSU covering but I can see a scenario where they can albeit unlikely

 
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Posted: #6
I will almost certainly have an extra Club ticket and parking pass for this one, if anyone wants to hang out with the legendary Maine Road for a while Saturday.  In the Pantheon of great letdowns, let me just warn you that hanging out with the legendary Maine Road is clearly among them.  Still, if you're interested just let me know.  Would probably behoove me to see that it goes to an LSU fan, though would consider non-jackhole Auburn fan as well.  I got nothing against Auburn. 
 
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Posted: #7
Auburn running the ball isn't productive? You need to check the stats, a kid named Kerryon Johnson.
 
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Posted: #8
I can only assume/hope that the poor Johnson family was either unaware of the existence of the word "carrion," or really, really big fans of luggage. 
 
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Posted: #9

if Jonhson can stay healthy and finish the game, he could be most important player in the game for either team

 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by MaineRoad:

I can only assume/hope that the poor Johnson family was either unaware of the existence of the word "carrion," or really, really big fans of luggage. 
 
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Posted: #11

Quote Originally Posted by GENERALWIZDOM:

Allow me to play the contrarian here. Ive had my eye on this game. I took LSU last week vs Florida precisely because their stock had bottomed out and no one was backing them vs rival on the road... No one gave em a chance..... im seeing similar scenario here... Allow me to give my 2 cents....   The strength of LSU defense is vs the pass. They have legit disrupters in the pass rush and the LSU secondary has always been a strength on that defense. Their weakness is vs the run.... Florida could not exploit this because they couldnt muster enuff pass game. LSU keyed on the run and forced Florida into long situations. When Florida ran in 2nd half, they found holes like grand canyon.... but could only do it while ahead on down and distance and that wasnt very often. So we know how to beat LSU defense but the question is, can Auburn do it? If they think Stidham is gonna drop back 30x against this defense and be successful, well then best of luck..... because I think that plays right into LSU hands... Auburn is gonna hafta run with success to cover the number Auburn running the ball without Pettway isnt very productive. And while Sidham has played well, he hasnt seen a pass rush or secondary like LSU since Clemson game... And im lil doubtful Auburn recievers can beat these corners.... Can Stidham beat LSU pass defense? Can Auburn run the ball effectively to create manageable downs and distance for Stidham?   Now that only explains half of the ball.... Auburn defense is legit dangerous and I cant tell you how LSU will score vs Auburn. But i think at home, LSU will luck into a couple big plays...  My personal opinion on this game is that I dont see it going over 30...  id say 13-9 Auburn with a LSU cover

 

oh I get it and appreciate your argumentation... was removing the strengths and weaknesses from by analysis since it's been discussed ad nostrum buttttt let's be clear, auburn is a well rounded offense the likes of which LSU hasn't seen

 
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Posted: #12

Quote Originally Posted by MaineRoad:

I will almost certainly have an extra Club ticket and parking pass for this one, if anyone wants to hang out with the legendary Maine Road for a while Saturday.  In the Pantheon of great letdowns, let me just warn you that hanging out with the legendary Maine Road is clearly among them.  Still, if you're interested just let me know.  Would probably behoove me to see that it goes to an LSU fan, though would consider non-jackhole Auburn fan as well.  I got nothing against Auburn.

 

peace_5

youre a good man. There are no home teams in betting, just who you're backing the next gamenew_moj_wow

 

i hate to admit this but yesterday I had 1 unit on Nats (3 on the under - easy win) and found myself rooting against my bet for the cubbies - figure that one out, lol 

 
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Posted: #13

We'll see... I was just playing devils advocate tryin to come up with a contrarian view on how LSU can cover.... Would take a perfect game and Im not puttin any money on that lol

BOL whatever you decide man

 
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Posted: #14
Actually Auburn has a stable of running backs with Johnson, Pettway and even Cam Martin. That is the strength of the team. Stidham keeps getting more comfortable in the offense and is shaken the rust off. But enough with the Auburn offense. How is LSU going to move the ball on the Auburn Defense? That defense is one of the toughest in the SEC and until Ole Miss got a few empty netters in the last game, they have all oppenents under 14 points. So by that logic, we need AU to get 21. I like my chances with that. I actually see them scoring in the 30's.
 
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Posted: #15
Does anyone have stats on favorites covering when they get 85%+ public support?
 
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Posted: #16
Sorry. I cannot read a team that loses AT HOME TO TROY, and the beats Florida at THE SWAMP

I wish you nothing but the greatest of Luck
 
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Posted: #17
I'm thinking line makers are a little uncertain of this LSU team, to be honest I think they are giving the Bengal Tigers a little too much credit here, I don't see it as a ploy or a ruge. I just think they are flat out confused to make this line jump any higher than a single possession. 

LSU has no O-line, young receivers, banged up Guice who is nowhere near 100%, an ice wagon for a qb... and that's just on Offense 

The defense is young, undisciplined and still very much immature... Capitol mentioned our "pass rush"... unless we send the house which is very rare, we seldom present any real pressure with only 3/4 rushers

and forget about Key, he's already locked in for the NFL that dude isn't playing with any real intensity or fire... if anything the real defensive leaders are Lacouture and Gilmore, who has played well... White is a monster at LB - the next Deion Jones but he's still a sophomore, and the CB's can't tackle to safe their lives 

Sure love to see LSU pull off the upset, but no way in hellapalooza would I wager my grandmother's inheritance on them 

 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by LA_THE_KID:

I'm thinking line makers are a little uncertain of this LSU team, to be honest I think they are giving the Bengal Tigers a little too much credit here, I don't see it as a ploy or a ruge. I just think they are flat out confused to make this line jump any higher than a single possession. 

LSU has no O-line, young receivers, banged up Guice who is nowhere near 100%, an ice wagon for a qb... and that's just on Offense 

The defense is young, undisciplined and still very much immature... Capitol mentioned our "pass rush"... unless we send the house which is very rare, we seldom present any real pressure with only 3/4 rushers

and forget about Key, he's already locked in for the NFL that dude isn't playing with any real intensity or fire... if anything the real defensive leaders are Lacouture and Gilmore, who has played well... White is a monster at LB - the next Deion Jones but he's still a sophomore, and the CB's can't tackle to safe their lives 

Sure love to see LSU pull off the upset, but no way in hellapalooza would I wager my grandmother's inheritance on them 


Fair on line makers but if the books are trying to make a market, they'd keep raising the line right..... in my eyes, it smells like a sucker and quacks like a sucker. But I'm looking at the evidence and the match-ups from past years... and I'm betting come Saturday afternoon, this ticket won't be sucker.... we.shall.see
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by The Hawk:

Sorry. I cannot read a team that loses AT HOME TO TROY, and the beats Florida at THE SWAMP

I wish you nothing but the greatest of Luck

Florida ends the year 8-5 meh... (sameish for LSU) Auburn will wallop 4 such teams away from home...

 
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Posted: #20

By taking AUBURN you are NOT "taking the bait!"

 
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Posted: #21
AU not being able to run the ball without Pettway?  I've been misled by fake news.  I've been told that AU is averaging over 260 ypg running the ball. That has to be fake stats because Pettway hasn't played much at all this year.  Johnson could not have been averaging over 100 yds per game and I must have dreamed he was voted SEC player of the week.  Dang, all this fake news is confusing.  We all need to thank the General for setting the record straight.  With all that being said, I think AU covers,  maybe LSU covers or in a dream world they tie.  Whatever the outcome fake news will not be able to change the outcome, or can they?   GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #22
take LSU .If you like to win and lose like the public play Auburn. 
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by hillardoh1:

take LSU .If you like to win and lose like the public play Auburn. 

Your arguement is fade the public? You can do better than that 
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by hillardoh1:

take LSU .If you like to win and lose like the public play Auburn. 

Haha did you bet Tennessee +7 vs Georgia??
 
 
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Posted: #25
[Quote: 

New coach, new culture at LSU combined with weakest LSU - I'm taking the bait - Auburn -6 (5 units), -6.5 (5 units), -7 (5 units). If LSU ML gets to +275 ill hedge 3 units LSU ML...

Your thoughts welcome... call me a moron, I welcome it

[/Quote]

I would not recommend the ML Play on LSU at any price with so much on Auburn -6 and -7.  Would be a brutal day if Auburn wins by 4.  

I like the play.  Books just can't put up a -8 with Auburn in Death Valley no matter how much action they get against LSU.  Too many people would buy back LSU at +8 or higher and then the Book risks a huge middle if the final score lands on 7.  There are some people that got Auburn as low as -4 right out of the box, too. 
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