Austin Peay/W Kentucky

Anyone have a take on this game?

week 0 or 1 take unders

@spottie2935

 I see it at 66. 

I think they're gunna be playing ball alot like last time and its new kid from D2 I'd get him as many reps as possible playing the kinda football he's gunna be playing all year .. what's the spread on that one like -26 or so ... 46-20 implied TT's? .. 

@Bridge1

 Spread -21.5 W Kentucky 

i would play WKU team total over in this one...

Austin Peay last 5 games against FBS competition they have given up 73, 45, 55,55, and 54 points. the lowest total was UGA in 2018 (38-0 at half, 45-0 mid 3q) clearly could have been waaaay worse. 

WKU should name the number here...and they will want to hang 50 I would imagine...

what book has a line up on this one?

@steponaduck

Penn gaming/Barstool 

However no team totals yet 

so the line/total are -21.5/ o/u 66?

@steponaduck

 Yes

mmm .. so lookin at 43/23 TT's .. yeah tough to see AP put up 23 but likely to be alot of drives in this one ..  scottie walden coaching is a downfield fast air raider coach too, aggressive on 4th downs same as WKY was LY high risk high reward .. that can backfire too and turn in zero points instead of FG's .. I did check out AP game notes lotta new or lower experienced guys on O and D it looks like a reallllly shaken up starting group .. and the guys I remember from the spring ball season they had Brian Sneed a great RB for from Ohio St but he's xferred on to arkey st .. OVC player of the year QB xferred out too sounds like he was avoiding a 2nd suspension for the usual stuff .. I wouldn't count out the new QB as being bad or anything he got 3 starts in and started in a surprise blow out of Murray in the fall ssn game .. racers still had a pretty scrappy D at that time i believe .. 

If AP is breaking in a ton of new guys on D I'd expect WKY can just exploit them fully, again lotta possessions .. I'd play WKY's TT if it was available .. if not maybe tease down the -21.5 to 15.5 .. maybe w Pitt -1? .. otherwise I'll trust AR-16 lights em up and take -21.5 ..

Where you seein the lines btw?

@Bridge1

 Penn Gaming/Barstool has just spread & O/U

Grabbed the -21.5 at Toadstool and did their dummy odds parlay -21.5 / O66 +200 which isin't smart but whatev only bettin fun bucks ... no reason to bet more that that on this game but yeah think WKY throttles em .. biiiiig ..

Betrivers is really no fun I tried them first and only allowed $25 on the spread and rejected the entire parlay which is totally in their interest to accept at those odds .. same oddsmakers as barfstool who approves all the bets too so idk maybe BR is still a little salty after that Pitt 66-1 ACC bomb I hit right after they had lost to W.Mich LY .. 

Best of luck gents yeah fun game fun bets only .. GO HILLS!!

Im looking under because its going to be pretty one sided. It also fit my week 1 data system under.  

One other thing I look into as far as what a team tendencies are.

In ALL games with any line or total: WKY opponent has to score 21+ points in the game or the under is 40-11.  

If this game is a preseason game weeks 1 through 3 the under is a perfect 7-0.

I have no clue about AP but if the tendencies are in fact true this is under. 

Last season Bowl blowout over with App St was lined at 68.  Both the teams can score.  In this case not so much.

one can also say WKY can score 60 points alone.

I really like the under here but I could be wrong.   

@spottie2935

 none of that 40-11 stuff matters, because WKU completely changed their offensive scheme last year, from the previous several years. they arent even the same team as they were...new regime, new players...new systems

Duck I respect your opinion and not everyone likes what I post.  The way I see it everything changes in college every year.  I am not posting to get on yours or anyone nerves.  I just post what I like.  Read it and let it go. 

Best wishes on the season 

@spottie2935

Do yer thing dude if your gut says trust your instruments you gotta trust your instruments .. win or lose you can only get better doing it that way... if we waffle on our winning methods and we actually end up winning it only leads to more waffling and away from the winning formula .. if we waffle and we lose it leaves us feeling pretty dumb ..

I don't have the trend-o-matic numbers set up but yeah 66 is high and I would never bet on this if Doege was the projected QB .. I am trusting my gut that says the new QB will perform here .. if he doesn't then spread and total get into trouble in a big hurry .. also could be key injury, blown drives, freak weather, plenty of ways for big lines n totals to not hit ... esp w 2 new QB's who we really need to do something on day 1..  

Spottie / Duck .. good luck to you both this year .. oh and Duck, let's show trend boy whattuuup big win for us comin!!!... lol kidding .. good luck guys!  

Thanks best wishes Bridge.  

speaking of fast paced ...  -27 now .. 

Doege gone - at Troy 

@spottie2935

 my guy...you did not get on my nerves at all...not one bit. good luck this weekend. 

@steponaduck

Hey Darren, I'll actually go the otherway.

Like someone else mentioned AP did lose their stat-worthy QB; he was benched for "lack of leadership".  But to his credit, and also his ability, he had 3 great games with decisive results to finish the year (team effort too).

Now they are going to Layman, a guy who's gotta be gnawing at the bit to go the distance.  His high school pedigree included 4 state playoff appearances (Alabama), 3 of which were in the Title game.  In college, he was at Memphis but got no play time because THAT team went nearly perfect (only regular season loss was by 2 points).  Gotten a few reps after the xfer and also important to note that the AP Head Coach is going into year 4 I believe.  I see positive signs actually.  They aren't the same unit getting blown out 75% of the schedule.

I see them as a squad that wants/need a 'must-score-early' attitude.  And in garbage time, or possibly closer games, the team that 'isn't going down easily'.  While I agree that WKY should score some very easy TD's (and lots of points in general) I also think they could take the foot off the gas if they were up big.  Don't want to call a BS backdoor, but instead thinking they stay within range throughout... let's all find out!       BOL  TAKING THE POINTS, WOULD CONSIDER THE TT OVER

@bookieassassin

Yeah Doege was basically anointed the starter when he transferred from WV to W.KY .. wasn't a bad P5 QB and was a good G5 QB before then .. think he bolted WV when they brought in Daniels so safe to say he wanted to go somewhere he would be the starter in (I believe) his final year .. Then xferrs outta WKY in a haste before coach even says who the starter was .. Can't say for sure why he made such a hasty move ... hoping we find out why on Saturday ..  ... If not then eek .. 

@Bridge1

You sure you didnt hammer that -21.5?!? Lol

Shit its SKYROCKETING!!!

Now -27 

Ha I got in the bare min of what I could call a 'smaller' bet .. nothing that could be construed as a hammer by anyone even the morons over a toadstool .. think it was ALL OF YOU in this thread who ran over and hammered it .. im gunna ask the host over there if he saw darren and spottie show up about an hour ago trying to drop 10 dimes each on it .. LOL