Az st, and other picks and why

Yesterday we hit vatech and ohio - I flubbed it up on tt - record sits at 5-1.  Let's look at some numbers for Navy and az st. (best game on the board in my opinion):

         Navy   79  57  74  91

14.5  Azst    31  26   22  37 

Az st opened up as a 14.5 fav. it's hovering around 14. As you can see az st is better than navy in every category (lower the better).  Based on history of bowl games (since 2009)  when you have what I call a 0/4 scenario and the line is in double digits - the favorite usually covers - this was the scenario with Utah st and toledo.  Anyways, i'm riding the pony and going with az st.  

The other games - I like Rice but this is a be careful game - so don't go crazy.  The games between tcu/mich st and wva/Syracuse - these are what I call 3/ 1 B situations  Mich st and Syracuse are only better in total defense;  When the lines are small in this scenario - this indicates the games should be close - the question - how close?  This is where we need to increase our margin of error - do a teaser between mich st and Syracuse, or match them up with az st. or do them all.   The other game - I believe the starting qb is not playing - simply a lean - oreg. st.  Good luck all.

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3-0 after hitting Sjose st. It's all about the outcomes.  Let's look at some numbers and then discuss:

            Ohio  43  63  97  144     (241)

6.5  Monroe  34  73 62  86        (148) 

the data above reflects ranks for - Total off.  Total Def.  Sagarin Rank, Sagarin Sched strength.  The numbers in ( )  are composites of the sagarin ranks. To help me track trends I label each category A B C D.  What we have here is a 1 B / 3 situation - meaning ohio is only better in 1 category, Total defense.  If you have read my posts - this is a similar situation as yesterdays game - however, there are a couple of things that stand out  1. The spread on the game is 6.5 2. Ohio has a composite of 241. 3. Monroe has a composite of 148. Yesterdays game - the composite was bad but not this bad.   When the composites of these teams are this high - and vegas has ohio only at 6.5 -  often you will see the underdog keep it close. In this pattern - history is on the side of  Ohio.  I'm going with Ohio and the points. 

Also, I like Va tech - will try to comeback later for minn/tt. 

Good luck all. 

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2-0 after cmich came thru.  Let's look at some numbers and discuss:

      Bowlgn    87  7  76  136     (212)

7.5 Sjosest    30   28  30 75      (105)

the data above reflects ranks for - Total off.  Total Def.  Sagarin Rank, Sagarin Sched strength.  The numbers in ( )  are composites of the sagarin ranks. To help me track trends I label each category A B C D.  What we have here is a 1 B / 3 situation - meaning BG is only better in Total def.  Based on bowl games in the past typically the 1 B team wins or covers these games (there's been 24 games played since 2009 with this similar scenario - different lines but these scenarios 2 ties, 15 1 B teams that covered or won outright and 7 favorites that have won.  Percentage wise you would think it's best to go with BG, however, the main reason for going with Sjosest. -   If the 1 B team has a composite in the 200's which BG does - take the 3 team - thus i'm on Sjose St.

Folks have asked about over/unders - i don't track them - thus i don't bet them - my lean would be under.  Good luck all.

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1-0 after smu crushed and won out right.   Let's look at some numbers and then discuss:

      Cmich     67 94   119    121       (240)

6    Wky      72  23    80      104      (184)

My first rhetorical question - why are these teams in a bowl game with composites of 240 and 180. Anyways, the data above reflects ranks for - Total off.  Total Def.  Sagarin Rank, Sagarin Sched strength.  The numbers in ( )  are composites of the sagarin ranks. 

I label each category A B C D.  What we have here is what I call a 1 A / 3 situation - meaning - Cmich is only better in Total off.

The line opened at Wky -6 - currently hovering around 6.5. 

During the season, very often you will see a lot of upsets when this is the pattern, however, you have to consider this is a neutral site for both teams.  Thus I've looked at previous bowl games since 2009 - with this scenario, typically when the underdog has a composite of 200 or more the line is a double digit for the favorite.   And very often the team that has the best sagarin composite comes out on top/covers.  

However, i'm not having a warm fuzzy regarding wky.  I recognize on paper cmich sucks and wky is clearly better (not by too much) - but the oddsmakers made wky a 6 pt favorite - why not higher - I know I know - playing in mich etc.  but still 6 pts.

The other thing - during the season wky played middle ten st -147 - composite for wky and 211 composite for midd. ten - middle ten won out right.     In other games during the season, very often the 200 team usually loses big.  Indicates, they may play down to the compettition. This was the only game where I saw the the 200 team win outright.  I'm on Cmich. tonite even thought they have a composite of 240. Don't go crazy, plenty more opportunities await.  Good luck all.