B1G Week 10

Last week: 2-1 overall (1-1 B1G)

Season stats: 

B1G: 17-6-1 74%
All picks: 24-16-1 60%
Props: 0-3 

Might as well just post it now since this line has not budged from the GOY number and tough to see it getting better for the side I like... 

Penn St +4.5 

Not the spot I was hoping after a complete dud from OSU last week, but I think there problems are things that have plagued them for years and seemingly getting worse now with a few injuries. The offensive line play is bad. The depth is not there either and injuries are popping up. Thought the Nebraska front could cause some issues yesterday and they did. Penn St will be able to do that if not more and are a slightly better unit overall. Nebraska doesn't quite have the offense to exploit the opportunities they had - play calling was atrocious with the runs putting Raiola in 3rd and good luck spots late in the game. I think this Penn St team is quite similar to the past few Michigan teams & Allar will need to have his true break through moment this week. The 2 headed monster at RB should wear on that OSU front - the running lanes have been there but need the passing attack to keep the aggressive Knowles defense honest and I think Penn St can do that. I'm not big on Trey Henderson more of an outside the tackles runner, last time @ PSU had one nice run and otherwise 15 carries for 37 yards. Is Judkins a more physical inside runner? I guess ultimately I think the OL/DL are the most important position groups on the field. It doesn't matter how many weapons you have, if your OL can't run block or can't protect then those skill guys aren't given the time to create the separation. James Franklin is an absolute BUM in big games, but his falters are typically less dramatic at home in these spots so hoping Penn St can keep this within a one score game. This would be a VERY impressive W no matter if its by 1 or 20 for Ohio St. Personally have Penn St as the top team in the B1G this season and now is the opportunity to prove it. Statistically my ratings have OSU -2.5 here, home field imo makes this a pick em at worst and I like some of the matchups on the field for the Lions. Should be an awesome football game! Lets see if JF can finally get it done and take that next step - if not now then it may never happen under his watch.

Indiana -6.5 

Don't understand this line at all. Have Indiana 18 points better on a neutral. MSU off a loss in their season super bowl. Huge let down spot. Indiana rolling along. This week was shocked by how good the MSU defense made Michigan's QB situation look. Not even Arkansas St could do that earlier this year. So while I don't love the Hoosier back up QB, this is a pretty nice matchup for him. Love the way both backs Ellison for Indiana and Carter for MSU run the ball. Both very physical. Indiana only giving up 96 rush yards per game and that likely means Chiles has it in his hands a lot. Talented kid, but makes a lot of young QB mistakes and this Indiana defense is very opportunistic. MSU one of the worst in the country in TO margin. Ill still be looking to fade Indiana at some point but this isn't the spot. Think the Hoosiers roll MSU next weekend.

Indiana, the gift that keeps on giving.  

Completely agree.... and I think you could have went into Ryan Day's propensity to cack in big games too.....

Buckeyes defense will be buzzed in their ears all week about having to win one for them.....leaving the offense to be the offense and just focus. Its easier to get a defense jacked up and challenged and the lack of extra aggressive contact in practice will add to their fury for game day. I thought the playcalling by Day + OC agreeing on a plan...was atrocious. Was it on purpose? I don't know if it matters since the speed of this linebacking crew is eyecatching and that defense swarmed on a speedy Wisky team...that stood out to me. PSU makes excellent defensive reaction decisions.

I would also like to see Beau and Allar both play

I will be on PSU if the line opens +3.5 or better

GL Hockey, your take on BIG 10 is appreciated  

Any insight early on the Oregon vs Michigan game flying in from Phoenix to see the game ? 

@HockeyNight11

 Is it still GOY?

@noahthechef

For some reason I’ve had this one circled for Michigan… it’s a gut feeling there’s literally nothing to back that up. Just think Michigan has some advantages. My confidence that they can execute for 60 mins is pretty low though. Long travel for Oregon. 

I think Oregon gets popped somewhere…

@Hawgballz

 I meant GOY line - it’s been +3.5/+4.5 since the summer time. 

Not a GOY bet as far as bet size goes. I don’t post stuff like that

Thanks

@HockeyNight11

I wonder what Allar’s injury status is, I was surprised he didn’t come back in, but he’ll probably play. I’m totally with you on your analysis. As much talent as the Buckeyes have that offensive line is overrated as hell. That’s what it will come down to.  As a diehard Buckeyes fan, I’ve watched every game and things just don’t mesh still. I think this is the best Penn State team they’ve had in a few years and if James Franklin can’t do it this year at home,  I don’t know. Over a field goal has value imo but I’ll pass. Also, agree on Indiana….under a TD? Just ride it out. bol

Good luck HN.  

@MrFreedo

 Not to be crude but watching the game I would say he got his nuts crushed. 

@MrFreedo

Looks like he’s playing. Guessing they mix in both a little? 

Less optimistic about Michigan today, lots of injuries - especially on defense. Will Johnson out again. The pass rush is going to need to dominate this game and they’re gonna need to be strong against the run. Both possible, but we’ll see lots of different ways Oregon can beat a team. 

Good Luck HN!!

Have lots of plays today.. 

B1G plays: 
Indiana -6.5
Penn St +4.5
Washington +3 (-125)
Iowa -2.5
Minnesota -2.5

Other plays:
Miami -20.5
SMU/Pitt over 56
UNC -2.5 

Still debating on Michigan as I think that multi time zone travel is a big deal and its never easy going on the road as #1. Michigan has an opportunity to control this game with the DL if they can stop the run I think Gabriel is prone to make mistakes. If they can't contain the run or the pass rush can't get home it'll be a long day though. Davis Warren is clearly the right guy for the offense. Was hopeful for Tuttle but had no idea on the UCL issue. 

Will stick with a few props since Michigan will likely be throwing often later in this one... 

Tyler Morris 17+ receiving yards 
Semaj Morgan 25+ receiving yards +155

Nice write ups! GL 

Thanks for sharing Hockey!

@HockeyNight11

 FYI,   According to a good friend of mine who's granddaughter dates Tuttle,  he has retired from football after his 5th concussion.

@dj6593

 Yeah I saw that. Earlier in the season I had said I think he would be a good answer to fix the QB issues the team was having but it was pretty evident against Illinois he didn’t have any juice on his throws. Was just saying when I made the comment about him being the starter I had no idea of the UCL thing - or the concussion issues for that matter. 

Good to see him put his health first though, at some point it’s just not worth the toll on the body anymore - he has a whole life ahead of him to worry about.

***correction

Had this profit boost so was able to get Minnesota on the ML -123.. decided to roll with the ML instead of -2.5. 

@HockeyNight11

Week 10 B1G plays: 4-1

Other plays: 3-0

Week 10 total: 7-1 

Season stats: 

B1G: 21-7-1 75%
All picks: 31-17-1 64.5%
Props: 1-4

James Franklin special to rob us of the 8-0 day. No idea how you are first and goal from inside the 3 twice and get 0 points… he’s gotta be done in happy valley. Game they should never lose but he finds a way!