Baylor @ West Virginia

Question

.Big 12 matchup between the Baylor Bears (4-3, 2-2) and the West Virginia Mountaineers (5-1, 3-1) at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown. Forecast for today is mostly sunny, high of 55. Calm wind about 5 mph. Night time low of 39. Calm wind. I'll say the entire game is played in the mid 40's. Great football weather.

This should be an entertaining game with lots of action. After a bye week WV hopes to bounce back from a thumpin' in Ames and get a W to get back in the Big 12 Title hunt. Will Grier looks to rebound from a sub-par 11-15 for 100 yards, 1 td, 1 int performance just to be mentioned in Heisman talk. The Baylor program will be gunning for a signature W over a highly ranked team in search of a decent Bowl game.

Two weeks ago I had a long winded write up backing the Cyclones as a big play to cover against WV stating an outright upset would be no surprise. The short of it was that I thought the Mounties were overarated and there was no way they were the #6 team in the country. Lots of hype around Grier's Heisman campaign and there 5-0 record with big offensive stats driving that #6 ranking. The fact of the matter was that they hadn't beaten any good teams yet and had yet to play two good halves in any game. I'm going to continue that theme here. There is no way WV is the #13 team in the land.

WV opened with Tennessee. It was 10-7 at the half because the Vols were able to run the ball. A long weather delay at the half. Then WV blew them out in the second half. We all know the Vols stink. I even saw a halftime interview with HC Pruit where he said not much is going to change until he gets some better recruits.

WV was sluggish against Youngstown St at home in the first half. Then ignited and blew them out in the second half. It was the Penguins. Enough said.

WV was up 7-0 against Kansas St late in the half when the Wildcats failed on a 3rd and inches from their own 43. Snyder uncharacteristically gambled on 4th down with a poor play call the Mounties stuffed for a 5 yard loss. WV got the ball on the 38 and quickly scored and the rout was on. It was the worst performance I had ever witnessed from a Snyder coached team.

Then the Mountaineers went to Lubbock and exploded to hang a 35 on the board against the Red Raiders at the half. Then the WV offense failed to score in the second half. TT rallied behind a 3rd string qb to make it a game and the Mounties survived with a pick 6 to win it.

The Jayhawks came to Motown and got beat 38-22. Grier threw 3 int's into the end zone in the first half. Kansas scored 15 in the 2nd half and WV 17. No cover by WV.

We all know WV got upset by the Cyclones in a game Iowa St dominated throughout. The Cyclone rush attack gashed them all night and the frosh qb Purdy had a field day throwing the ball. Grier got sacked 7 times and at other times was running for his life.WV only ran 42 plays that night for a 142 yards. Ouch!

WV has now played very poorly for 10 straight quarters. Not denying that WV has explosive potential offensively. Do they get right after the bye week?

Baylor rolled ACU and TxSA in the come and get your check and get your azz kicked games. A good Duke team beat them 40-27. The Bears smacked the Jayhawks 26-7 which is better than what WV did. Oklahoma scored 66 on them and Murray threw for 438 but the Sooners can do that to a lot of teams. Baylor beat KSt 37-34. Last week the Bears gave Texas all they wanted before losing 23-17. Yes Ehlinger got knocked out of the game. But the backup Buechler has played a lot of games. The Bears held Texas scoreless in the 2nd half. Has the Baylor Defense turned the corner?

Score Off. Run Off. Pass Off. Total Off. /play

West Va. 36.8 points. 144 yds. 320 yds. 464 yds. 7.05

Baylor. 33.1. 162. 313. 475. 6.09

These two teams are a lot closer than you think offensively. Charlie Brewer can sling the ball all over the yard too. He has 10 td passes, 2 int's and has ran for 4 scores.

Score Def. Run Def. Pass Def. Total Def. /play

West Va. 20.5. 141. 218. 360. 5.28

Baylor. 31.0. 190. 218. 407. 6.34

The pass defenses are even. Other than that WV has the statistical edge on paper. Bears #95 in points given up. I still say WV has issues on D that Iowa St exposed. It is best to run right at them and not side to side. WV is light in the azz at linebacker due to injuries. Look for DC Tony Gibson to blitz a lot. Keep in mind the azz kickin' the Sooners gave the Bears skews these defensive numbers somewhat.

Kicking game edge to Baylor. They have the better punter at 44/punt. Field goals 13 of 18 for Baylor, 4of 6 for WV. Also, WV continues to have to many penalties.

WV has a history of having a hard time bouncing back after a loss as their 4-11-1 ats last 16 following a loss shows.

Baylor is 5-1 ats in this series. 4 of the 6 games in this series have been decided by 14 or less points. The other 2 were blowouts by Baylor.

The last 2 games between these two have been decided by 5 points combined.

Look for Baylor to control the ball with the mid range pass game to move the chains and the clock, thus keeping Grier and his receivers off the field as much as possible. I see WV struggling to find an answer for Brewer as much as Baylor trying to contain Grier. Both teams right at 50 % on 3rd down conversions. If this game gets into a shootout I believe the Bears can keep up. Matt Rhule has his program on the rise and I really don't think these programs are that far apart. I think Baylor has enough talent to stay within the generous impost. Bears able to go toe to toe with the Mountaineers.

I make the line at WV -7.5 so will take the 14.

2* Baylor +14

Only reason I did this long write up is because Scal is in the penalty box.

Bolta

FunKyRufus · Answer