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BCS Bowl Projections

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Posted: #1
If Houston loses a game, they have no shot at a BCS spot.  If they win their remaining games, (SMU, Tulsa, So Miss), they will be guaranteed a spot in a BCS game, because they won their conference and Boise did not (assuming TCU doesn't lose 2 games in conference).  There is a rule that states the conference winner has precedence.

Assuming Houston gets a BCS bowl, it will either be the Sugar Bowl vs the SEC runner up, or the Orange Bowl vs the ACC Champ.  The Sugar Bowl will have the first pick between the Big East Winner and the non-AQ school.  The Orange gets the last remaining at-large.  The Sugar Bowl makes the most sense for Houston, because it is an easy drive for Houston bandwagon fans.

The Rose Bowl will have Oregon vs the Big 10 winner

Fiesta will have Stanford vs OK or OK St.

BCS game will be LSU vs OK or OK St.

if Oregon makes the BCS game, then

Rose is Stanford vs B10
Fiesta is OK vs OK St
BCS is LSU vs Oregon

if Bama vs LSU is the BCS game
Rose is Oregon vs B10
Fiesta is Stanford vs OK/OK St
Sugar is Houston/OK/OK St


If Houston loses, then Boise gets the non-AQ spot.  A Bowl could pick Boise with any at-large selection, so it gets complicated. 

 
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Posted: #2
the system is so broken, ats its pure horse shit--- by princple oregon and bama shouldnt have a shot for a rematch against LSU beacause they already fuck em...any way ..SHAME
 
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Posted: #3
If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State shouldn't Alabama be in the drivers seat for #2?
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by Pick-Six:

If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State shouldn't Alabama be in the drivers seat for #2?


Bama has the BCS lead, but they have less chance to rack up more points than OK and Oregon.  Bama's best hope is that Arkansas beats LSU, and Bama wins the SEC-West by having the top BCS ranking.



 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by shark_apreza:

the system is so broken, ats its pure horse shit--- by princple oregon and bama shouldnt have a shot for a rematch against LSU beacause they already fuck em...any way ..SHAME


The cleanest scenario is if LSU and OK St win out, but the BCS always gets messy. 

If OK beats OK St, and Arkansas beats LSU, you have total chaos.  You could have as many as 11 teams with one loss

Bama
Arkansas
LSU
Boise
Houston
So Miss
Oregon
Stanford
ACC Champ
OK
OK St

 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:

If Houston loses a game, they have no shot at a BCS spot.  If they win their remaining games, (SMU, Tulsa, So Miss), they will be guaranteed a spot in a BCS game, because they won their conference and Boise did not (assuming TCU doesn't lose 2 games in conference).  There is a rule that states the conference winner has precedence.

Assuming Houston gets a BCS bowl, it will either be the Sugar Bowl vs the SEC runner up, or the Orange Bowl vs the ACC Champ.  The Sugar Bowl will have the first pick between the Big East Winner and the non-AQ school.  The Orange gets the last remaining at-large.  The Sugar Bowl makes the most sense for Houston, because it is an easy drive for Houston bandwagon fans.

The Rose Bowl will have Oregon vs the Big 10 winner

Fiesta will have Stanford vs OK or OK St.

BCS game will be LSU vs OK or OK St.

if Oregon makes the BCS game, then

Rose is Stanford vs B10
Fiesta is OK vs OK St
BCS is LSU vs Oregon

if Bama vs LSU is the BCS game
Rose is Oregon vs B10
Fiesta is Stanford vs OK/OK St
Sugar is Houston/OK/OK St


If Houston loses, then Boise gets the non-AQ spot.  A Bowl could pick Boise with any at-large selection, so it gets complicated. 



I actually agree with you on this.  Taking emotion out of the equation I do not think that Bama will get in the championship game if LSU wins out.  I really think that OU has the best shot (if they win out).

And I know that plenty of people are going to use the Tech argument.  And that is a terrible loss.  but I am saying what I think will happen not what I think should happen.  
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:



Bama has the BCS lead, but they have less chance to rack up more points than OK and Oregon.  Bama's best hope is that Arkansas beats LSU, and Bama wins the SEC-West by having the top BCS ranking.





If tie-breaker gets down to BCS ranking, which I think it will, then tie-breaker is H2H winner of the top 2 BCS rank.  So Bama gets in if LSU is behind Ark and Bama, which I don't think will happen, I can see LSU behind 1 but not both.

The nuclear option for BCS to those who advocate against it is LSU loses to Ark or GA and OSU to OU!!!
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by gmitran:


The nuclear option for BCS to those who advocate against it is LSU loses to Ark or GA and OSU to OU!!!


If Georgia win the SEC, and Bama and LSU still finish 1-2 in the final BCS standings, then Georgia would play in the Sugar Bowl and Bama and LSU will play in the BCS Bowl.  This is the only scenario where a conference is allowed to have 3 teams in BCS Bowls 
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:



If Georgia win the SEC, and Bama and LSU still finish 1-2 in the final BCS standings, then Georgia would play in the Sugar Bowl and Bama and LSU will play in the BCS Bowl.  This is the only scenario where a conference is allowed to have 3 teams in BCS Bowls 
I dont think they allow any conference to have more than 2 play in a BCS game.

But if that were to happen.... holy shit, here we go
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:

I dont think they allow any conference to have more than 2 play in a BCS game.

But if that were to happen.... holy shit, here we go


Selection of teams

A set of rules is used to determine which teams compete in the BCS bowl games.[3]

Certain teams are given automatic berths depending on their BCS ranking and conference, as follows:

  • The top two teams are given automatic berths in the BCS National Championship Game.
  • The champion of a BCS conference[4] (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC) is guaranteed an automatic BCS bowl bid.
  • Due to the "Notre Dame rule",[5] independent Notre Dame receives an automatic berth if it finishes in the top eight.
  • The highest-ranked champion of a non-BCS conference will receive an automatic berth if:
    • It is ranked in the top 12, or
    • Ranked in the top 16 and higher than at least one BCS conference champion.
  • No more than one such team from Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, and the Western Athletic Conference shall earn an automatic berth in any year. However, a second team from one of these conferences may qualify as a BCS at-large.
  • No more than two teams from any one conference may receive berths in BCS games unless two non-champions from a BCS conference finish as the top two teams in the final BCS standings, in which case they will meet in the National Title Game while their conference champion will play in their conference's BCS bowl game.
  • The third-ranked team will receive an automatic berth if it has not already received one, if it is a member of a BCS conference, and provided that its conference has not already earned two automatic berths, if there is room.
  • If the third-ranked team did not require a berth using the previous provision, then the fourth-ranked team will receive an automatic berth if it has not already received one, if it is a member of a BCS conference, and provided that its conference has not already earned two automatic berths, if there is room.

After the automatic berths have been granted, the remaining berths, known as "at-large" berths, are filled from a pool of teams who are ranked in the top 14 and have at least nine wins. The actual teams that are chosen for the at-large berths are determined by the individual bowl committees.

If fewer than 10 teams are eligible for selection, then an at-large team will be any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible, has won at least nine regular-season games, and is among the top 18 teams in the final BCS Standings, though any at-large team ranked in the top 14 will be guaranteed a bid over at-large teams ranked lower than 14th. If fewer than 10 teams are eligible after expanding the at-large pool to 18 teams, then the at-large pool will continue to be expanded by four additional positions in the BCS Standings until 10 or more teams are eligible. No team ranked lower than 14 has used this rule to earn an at-large bid, although several teams ranked lower than 14 have received a bid for winning their conference, as the rule was not in place in the early years of the BCS.

All BCS conferences except the Big East have contracts for their champions to participate in specific BCS bowl games. Unless their champion is involved in the BCS National Championship game, the conference tie-ins are:

  • Rose Bowl - Big Ten champion vs. Pac-12 champion
  • Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 champion vs. at large
  • Orange Bowl - ACC champion vs. at large
  • Sugar Bowl - SEC champion vs. at large

The Big East champion takes one of the remaining spots.

If the Pac-12 or Big Ten champion is picked for the BCS National Championship Game, then the Rose Bowl must choose the highest-ranked school from a non-AQ conference instead of the respective conference's #2 team if there is a non-AQ school ranked at least #4 in the final BCS standings. This was the case in 2010, when the Oregon Ducks made it to the national championship, permitting the #3 TCU Horned Frogs to attend, and win, the 2011 Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl is permitted to override this provision if it has been taken within the previous four seasons.

All 11 conferences compete for an opportunity to earn AQ status. As agreed by all 11 conferences, the results of the 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007 regular seasons were evaluated to determine which conferences earned automatic qualification. Three criteria were used: Rank of the highest-ranked team, rank of all conference teams, and number of teams in the top 25. The six conferences which met that standard are the current BCS conferences.

The 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 seasons will be used to determine if another conference achieves automatic qualification for the BCS games that will conclude the 2012 and 2013 seasons.


 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:



If Georgia win the SEC, and Bama and LSU still finish 1-2 in the final BCS standings, then Georgia would play in the Sugar Bowl and Bama and LSU will play in the BCS Bowl.  This is the only scenario where a conference is allowed to have 3 teams in BCS Bowls 

 That would be nearly impossible..................& to have that provision written into the rules is just another sign of how shady the BCS system is.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:

If Houston loses a game, they have no shot at a BCS spot.  If they win their remaining games, (SMU, Tulsa, So Miss), they will be guaranteed a spot in a BCS game, because they won their conference and Boise did not (assuming TCU doesn't lose 2 games in conference).  There is a rule that states the conference winner has precedence.

Assuming Houston gets a BCS bowl, it will either be the Sugar Bowl vs the SEC runner up, or the Orange Bowl vs the ACC Champ.  The Sugar Bowl will have the first pick between the Big East Winner and the non-AQ school.  The Orange gets the last remaining at-large.  The Sugar Bowl makes the most sense for Houston, because it is an easy drive for Houston bandwagon fans.

The Rose Bowl will have Oregon vs the Big 10 winner

Fiesta will have Stanford vs OK or OK St.

BCS game will be LSU vs OK or OK St.

if Oregon makes the BCS game, then

Rose is Stanford vs B10
Fiesta is OK vs OK St
BCS is LSU vs Oregon

if Bama vs LSU is the BCS game
Rose is Oregon vs B10
Fiesta is Stanford vs OK/OK St
Sugar is Houston/OK/OK St


If Houston loses, then Boise gets the non-AQ spot.  A Bowl could pick Boise with any at-large selection, so it gets complicated. 



If Houston loses then TCU will get the Non-AQ spot as long as they are ranked in the top 16. They get picked over Boise because of the rule you stated where conference champ goes. TCU will be conference champ and Boise will not. TCU will win their final two games so it basically comes down to Houston or TCU.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:



If Georgia win the SEC, and Bama and LSU still finish 1-2 in the final BCS standings, then Georgia would play in the Sugar Bowl and Bama and LSU will play in the BCS Bowl.  This is the only scenario where a conference is allowed to have 3 teams in BCS Bowls 


I guess anything is possible but I sure hope HC/writers don't want a repeat of LSU/Bama when LSU loses its last game.  I think OU w/ get a Top 2 seed here as they are close enough to Bama in computers ranking w/ OSU still left.  I just don't see a scenerio a team loses its last game playing in title game against team it already played against and both didn't even win their own conf.

IMO, Arky and OU wins out is worst case for BCS as that makes Arky/Bama/LSU all tied H2H and then OU/Ore be in the mix.  Any 1-loss scenerio involving LSU/Bama/Ore will make Bama/Ore much less irrelevant cause of H2H.  Don't see how Arky doesn't get title shot when they're conf champs of 3/5 of teams in contention.

Having said that, things ALWAYS looks murky last 2-3 wks but they almost always plays itself out and the "undisputed" 1-2 team gets in at the end and the best team thru-out yr wins the NC game.


 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by emeraldsports:



If Houston loses then TCU will get the Non-AQ spot as long as they are ranked in the top 16. They get picked over Boise because of the rule you stated where conference champ goes. TCU will be conference champ and Boise will not. TCU will win their final two games so it basically comes down to Houston or TCU.


No not exactly. If Southern Miss(ranked #20) beats Houston in the c-usa title game USM should pass TCU(#19) by sheer SOS since the last 2 games for both TCU and USM are about dead even(both sets of remaining teams are very bad). with TCU ahead of USM by 1 spot, USM can and should pass them up if they were to defeat Houston.
 
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Posted: #15

Quote Originally Posted by usmcapper:



No not exactly. If Southern Miss(ranked #20) beats Houston in the c-usa title game USM should pass TCU(#19) by sheer SOS since the last 2 games for both TCU and USM are about dead even(both sets of remaining teams are very bad). with TCU ahead of USM by 1 spot, USM can and should pass them up if they were to defeat Houston.

 

   Why does everyone presuppose that Houston is going win in Tulsa ?  I think that the Golden Hurricane win it by DD.

 I know that everyone loves a team that scores 50 - 60 points a game but the Cougars are NOT as good as Southern Miss. or Tulsa. If it wasn't for the 6 turnovers in Huntington, The Golden Eagles would be ranked higher than Houston. 

 I would love to see Southern Mississippi jump TCU but I guess it's gonna' hurt their SOS when they play Tulsa instead of #11 Houston.

 
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Posted: #16

Every game counts. That's the way it is right now.

Oregon lost to LSU.

Alabama lost to LSU

Stanford lost to Oregon

Okla lost to TT

Boise lost to TCU

They are on the outside looking in.

A loss is costly. Isn't that what we want? Pointless to create scenarios that puts a good team back in it. Who knows what the BCS voters will do?

 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by -29-:

 

   Why does everyone presuppose that Houston is going win in Tulsa ?  I think that the Golden Hurricane win it by DD.

 I know that everyone loves a team that scores 50 - 60 points a game but the Cougars are NOT as good as Southern Miss. or Tulsa. If it wasn't for the 6 turnovers in Huntington, The Golden Eagles would be ranked higher than Houston. 

 I would love to see Southern Mississippi jump TCU but I guess it's gonna' hurt their SOS when they play Tulsa instead of #11 Houston.



yeah we would rather play Houston than Tulsa although playing and beating tulsa might also make us jump TCU regardless being that TCU doesnt have a conference title game and Tulsa has playd some of the best teams, even though they lost. The votes and BCS rankings are close between #19 and #20.
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by emeraldsports:



If Houston loses then TCU will get the Non-AQ spot as long as they are ranked in the top 16. They get picked over Boise because of the rule you stated where conference champ goes. TCU will be conference champ and Boise will not. TCU will win their final two games so it basically comes down to Houston or TCU.


You're right.  Boise is going to need a lot of help to get a BCS game.
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by emeraldsports:



If Houston loses then TCU will get the Non-AQ spot as long as they are ranked in the top 16. They get picked over Boise because of the rule you stated where conference champ goes. TCU will be conference champ and Boise will not. TCU will win their final two games so it basically comes down to Houston or TCU.


On second thought...


TCU is number 19 right now.  TCU plays two mediocre teams at home.  Assujming they win these two games, I only give them a 15% chance of moving into the top 16.

TCU has 2522 BCS points.  Nebraska is #16 right now with 3817 points.  I don't see TCU making up that much ground, unless a lot of teams ranked 10 to 19 all lose.
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by THEMUGG:


 That would be nearly impossible..................& to have that provision written into the rules is just another sign of how shady the BCS system is.


I disagree.  The BCS was created so that #1 plays #2 at the end of the year.  But the champ of a AQ conference should be guaranteed a BCS Bowl.  So, I think the provision is a good idea.
 
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Posted: #21
Great thread ...

Gotta start Working on those Projected Lines ...


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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:



On second thought...


TCU is number 19 right now.  TCU plays two mediocre teams at home.  Assujming they win these two games, I only give them a 15% chance of moving into the top 16.

TCU has 2522 BCS points.  Nebraska is #16 right now with 3817 points.  I don't see TCU making up that much ground, unless a lot of teams ranked 10 to 19 all lose.

TCU Might run up 110+ Points the Next 2 weeks vs Colorado St. (who allowed 63 to Boise St.) and UNLV (TCU names what they want !!) 


Thinking a Matchup with Houston in a NON BCS Bowl would be Fantastic to watch ...

Wait really ... 

We have to put Houston in a BCS Bowl ????  Please NO .

Based on what ???? A Win over UCLA???.....

Cougars might not escape Tulsa Next Week

Southern Miss. would be tough as well..assuming the Cougars(LOCK) get to the CUSA..

...
 if so  why not play the Big East Winner !!

I Guess Va Tech/Clemson vs Houston would not be so Bad 


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Posted: #23
Current Overall Point Spread Ratings (Would be + or -upto 5 based on match up)

1  LSU   98   Just Rock Solid On Defense...Offense would run Down Hill vs Sofet Defenses...Some Monster Games Left vs Arkansas and The SEC Championship is Far from a Gimmie ..

Next 7 Schools are within a FG or each other...Would Love to see any of them match up in a Bowl...

2  Alabama 93    Offense is pretty Vanilla , especially Considering They have a Stud TB in Richardson...Could still get in if Arkansas can beat LSU.... Tide might get Fu%ked Playing a BCS Bowl vs Houston ....Be Careful we All Remember when Utah Blasted the Tide....

3 Oklahoma St.  92    Offense is Insane .... The Pressure on the Cowboys has to be tremendous with only 2 Games Standing between a Crack at the Nation Championship.

4  Oregon 92     Looking Healthy Finally  .... Loads of Speed.... Tough to Stop the Offense , hard to Sub in Different Packages..Not sure it Happens but A rematch vs LSU would be a Classic IMNHO....

5  Oklahoma 91.5   The Broyles injury is horrible... Could Easily end up playing for the Title if they win in Stillwater....Sooners have been shakey on the road the last few years ...

6  Stanford  90.5      Oregon is a Bad Matchups for the larger Cardinal .... Wonder if Cal can shock them in the BIG Game ??? When it's all said and done Stanford might win another BCS Bowl come January...

7  Georgia  90     Could give LSU all it can handle in the SEC Championship game .... Hoping for 10+ Points ....Richt is still Painful to watch at times.... 

8  USC   90    Don't think anyone is lining up to play the Trojans right  now .... Every game is a Bowl Game from here on out ....KIffin cost them the Stanford Game ....Numbers like them at Oregon with the Points..
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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9  Arkansas 87.5    Not a fan of the HC .... Easily could have choked a few (Vandy)  .... Hoping to see them match up vs a Good Fie in the Bowl game ...

10  Wisconsin 83.5    Overrated YES !!!  Easy schedule YES !!!  Can they Blow out almost anyone on a Good Day ??  YES!!! Not sure they match up well with Oregon if they play in the Rose Bowl ...

11  Kansas St.  83    Sure Oklahoma hammered the Cats , but they did play right down to the Wire with Oklahoma St. ...   Bill Snyder is Easily My Coach of the Year...

12  Clemson 81   Who Knows ????  Rematch vs Virginia Tech is Bigger than a BCS Bowl IMNHO.... 

12  Missouri   81    Go ahead and Laugh but the Tigers are Very Solid and might hammer Clemson 

12  Virginia Tech 81    Might be way to High for the Hokies who have a Tough time covering any number... Still Hope they are Catching 6+ in the ACC Championship ...

15  Nebraska 80    Taylor Martinez has a horrible arm .... Faced the toughest BIG 10 schedule this season and still won have only lost 2 games.... Thinking of fading this week in Ann Arbor ...

15  Florida St.   80   Playing better football right now ... 

15  Michigan St  80   Spartans are up and down .... Still might end up in a BCS Bowl ... 

18  TCU  79.5   Playing Fantastic .... Really fought till the end in Boise ... Might score 100+ Points the next 2 weeks vs Colorado St. and UNLV...


BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
 
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Odds makers  Line Guesses

LSU    8.5   Oklahoma St

LSU     10.5    Oklahoma

LSU      6.5   Alabama

LSU     13    Oregon


Oregon  4.5   Wisconsin  

Oklahoma St  3.5   Stanford 

Stanford   Pick   Oklahoma 

Alabama  8.5      Oklahoma

Alabama  8.5    Stanford 

Alabama   19.5   Houston 

Alabama    14      Clemson/Va Tech

Houston      2.5     BIG East 

Clemson/Va Tech  7   Houston




   




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