BCS Bowl Projections

Selection of teams

A set of rules is used to determine which teams compete in the BCS bowl games.^[3]

Certain teams are given automatic berths depending on their BCS ranking and conference, as follows:

• The top two teams are given automatic berths in the BCS National Championship Game.
• The champion of a BCS conference^[4] (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC) is guaranteed an automatic BCS bowl bid.
• Due to the "Notre Dame rule",^[5] independent Notre Dame receives an automatic berth if it finishes in the top eight.
• The highest-ranked champion of a non-BCS conference will receive an automatic berth if:
  • It is ranked in the top 12, or
  • Ranked in the top 16 and higher than at least one BCS conference champion.
• No more than one such team from Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, and the Western Athletic Conference shall earn an automatic berth in any year. However, a second team from one of these conferences may qualify as a BCS at-large.
• No more than two teams from any one conference may receive berths in BCS games unless two non-champions from a BCS conference finish as the top two teams in the final BCS standings, in which case they will meet in the National Title Game while their conference champion will play in their conference's BCS bowl game.
• The third-ranked team will receive an automatic berth if it has not already received one, if it is a member of a BCS conference, and provided that its conference has not already earned two automatic berths, if there is room.
• If the third-ranked team did not require a berth using the previous provision, then the fourth-ranked team will receive an automatic berth if it has not already received one, if it is a member of a BCS conference, and provided that its conference has not already earned two automatic berths, if there is room.

After the automatic berths have been granted, the remaining berths, known as "at-large" berths, are filled from a pool of teams who are ranked in the top 14 and have at least nine wins. The actual teams that are chosen for the at-large berths are determined by the individual bowl committees.

If fewer than 10 teams are eligible for selection, then an at-large team will be any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible, has won at least nine regular-season games, and is among the top 18 teams in the final BCS Standings, though any at-large team ranked in the top 14 will be guaranteed a bid over at-large teams ranked lower than 14th. If fewer than 10 teams are eligible after expanding the at-large pool to 18 teams, then the at-large pool will continue to be expanded by four additional positions in the BCS Standings until 10 or more teams are eligible. No team ranked lower than 14 has used this rule to earn an at-large bid, although several teams ranked lower than 14 have received a bid for winning their conference, as the rule was not in place in the early years of the BCS.

All BCS conferences except the Big East have contracts for their champions to participate in specific BCS bowl games. Unless their champion is involved in the BCS National Championship game, the conference tie-ins are:

• Rose Bowl - Big Ten champion vs. Pac-12 champion
• Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 champion vs. at large
• Orange Bowl - ACC champion vs. at large
• Sugar Bowl - SEC champion vs. at large

The Big East champion takes one of the remaining spots.

If the Pac-12 or Big Ten champion is picked for the BCS National Championship Game, then the Rose Bowl must choose the highest-ranked school from a non-AQ conference instead of the respective conference's #2 team if there is a non-AQ school ranked at least #4 in the final BCS standings. This was the case in 2010, when the Oregon Ducks made it to the national championship, permitting the #3 TCU Horned Frogs to attend, and win, the 2011 Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl is permitted to override this provision if it has been taken within the previous four seasons.

All 11 conferences compete for an opportunity to earn AQ status. As agreed by all 11 conferences, the results of the 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007 regular seasons were evaluated to determine which conferences earned automatic qualification. Three criteria were used: Rank of the highest-ranked team, rank of all conference teams, and number of teams in the top 25. The six conferences which met that standard are the current BCS conferences.

The 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 seasons will be used to determine if another conference achieves automatic qualification for the BCS games that will conclude the 2012 and 2013 seasons.

   Why does everyone presuppose that Houston is going win in Tulsa ?  I think that the Golden Hurricane win it by DD.

 I know that everyone loves a team that scores 50 - 60 points a game but the Cougars are NOT as good as Southern Miss. or Tulsa. If it wasn't for the 6 turnovers in Huntington, The Golden Eagles would be ranked higher than Houston. 

 I would love to see Southern Mississippi jump TCU but I guess it's gonna' hurt their SOS when they play Tulsa instead of #11 Houston.

Every game counts. That's the way it is right now.

Oregon lost to LSU.

Alabama lost to LSU

Stanford lost to Oregon

Okla lost to TT

Boise lost to TCU

They are on the outside looking in.

A loss is costly. Isn't that what we want? Pointless to create scenarios that puts a good team back in it. Who knows what the BCS voters will do?