Big Ten Picks Only - with write ups

Big ten only - will release others later - top play below.  

3.5* Michigan State (+4)

I think Michigan St will be a lot better than people think.  They had glimpses last year with wins over Michigan and Northwestern and having Penn St down in the second half in the finale.  One of their main issues was QB play and not being able to run the ball very well.  Both of thesethings should be greatly improved.  If you look at their last 5 games it couldn’t get much worse in terms of defenses faced unless u add Wisconsin (Iowa, IU, Northwestern, Ohio St, Penn St).  Northwestern is very well coached however they have the least experienced team in the conference and lost their def coord Hankwitz who was instrumental in their defensive success.  It will take Northwestern a little while to get things going and this should be a play against team early on.  

Offensively - Thorne showed his talent in the last game against Penn St and probably should have played more last year.  He has good mobility which can also help.  Russo comes over from Temple where he has experience and had some success throwing the ball.  His downside is he threw a lot of picks.  No matter who wins the job they will be much improved and have very good receivers to throw to.  I am comfortable with either at QB so this pick can be made before it is announced.  The offensive line will also be a lot better (entire 2 deep back – basically had 3 projected starters last year not play) and they add Kenneth Walker as a transfer at RB which will greatly improve that group.  This offensive should be way better this year.  In last year’s game, their offensive line controlled the line of scrimmage and they were able to run the ball against Northwestern.  Northwestern loses a lot on defense and their legendary defensive coordinator.  Their linebackers were tremendous and are always a critical part of their scheme and they are now gone (Fisher & Gallagher led team in tackles last 3 years and were outstanding).  They depend on the LB’s with their scheme – tend to only rush 3-4 and rely on LB’s to make place.  They will still be solid on defense as always but will takea step back this year.  Mich St should be able to move the ball some and put enough points on the board.  

Continued 

Defensively – Michigan St will be a lot better on defense this year as they return a lot up front and added in a couple transfers that will help (Williams from Bama and Crouch from Tenn).  Northwestern lost Ramsey and their top 4 receivers.  This is drastic for an offense that relies on the QB and timing plays with receivers.  They also just lost Cam Porter for the year (solid RB).  Northwestern runs a lot of misdirection which Mich St defended well last year and has extra time this year.  They named Hunter Johnson as the starter which surprised most people.  He was a highly touted recruit who transferred from Clemson.  He started 2 years ago and was awful (I mean awful – look at stats – he looked lost out there).  Maybe he has improved since then however he has inexperience at the skill positions which will make it a lot more challenging.  Their offensive line will be ok which will help some.  He has some mobility so I look for him to run some in this game as Northwestern has nothing on offense so will look to generate what they can.  Michigan St is catching this offense at the perfect time and should make things difficult for Northwestern and should get at least 1 mistake from Johnson in the game.  

Outlook – Right now I think Michigan St is the better team.  This is a bold statement considering the success Northwestern has had and the lack of success at St the past couple of years.  Last time Northwestern lost a good QB and some players they went 3-9 (2 years ago).  They are always a team that relies on fundamentals and lack of mistakes.  They are typically never more talented than other big ten teams.  They will be challenged this year where Michigan St seems to be going in the right direction under Mel Tucker.  I look for Michigan St. to start the season strong and get a win here.  

Prediction: Michigan St  by 11

what are your penn st @ wisc thoughts? leaning state here.

@Eddy_Winslow

 I’m laying off that one.  Originally liked Wisconsin but the more I watched games from last year the more unimpressive their off was.  They put it on not having Davis and Pryor most of the year which might be true. I wasn’t impressed with their off line which is unusual.  I think Mertz is getting too much love based on 2 games - Illinois and Michigan - he was not good in any other game.  I think he will be good but he has to show it first and Penn St is good.

I like penn st and the hire they made with Yurcich.  I think there will be a good time to take them early on but not here.  Wisc def is very good and Clifford can make mistakes.  I think being at Wisconsin is tough - crowd will be jacked and impact the game.  I also could see their def line struggle.  I think Wisc is better than they showed last year and with the receivers back and Berger running more they could be very tough.  So for me it’s a watch and see for future bets.  If I had to take it I probably side with Wisc cause I don’t think they will lose.  

Interesting stuff…appreciate the insight.

Next up - total keeps dropping.  I got 48.5 last week.

2.5* IU/Iowa under 46

Last year these were two of the top defenses in the country and both defenses return a lot of players.  Iowa hasn’t allowed 25 pts in a game since 2018 and both teams held opponents under 21 pts a game last year.  

Iowa Def – Iowa is always solid on defense.  They return their entire secondary and will be one of the best pass defenses in the country.  They do lose a couple defensive linemen but usually someone always emerges, and they will be helped by the secondary.  They also have a tremendous punter which will help with pinning IU back.  IU struggled to run the ball last year and should struggle in this game as well.  They will be 1 dimensional with Penix having his first game back from his ACL injury.  This will be challenging against this defense and they have the crowd to contend with.  Even if they move the ball, I expect they will struggle in the red zone.  IU also does not run any temp which helps with the under.  

Continued 

IU Def – IU is off a stellar year defensively and have most of their defense back.  They are playing an Iowa team who is not explosive and typically runs a slow pace and focuses on moving the chains rather than big plays.  Iowa loses their big play receiver and a couple linemen.  Petras should have a better year this year however he is going against one of the best secondaries in the country so they should struggle to put up a lot of points.  The key will be them not creating any bad turnovers that lead to IU points as IU is very good at taking the ball away.  

Outlook:  I see this has being a slugfest between to very good teams who are both excellent on defense.  I think both teams play field position and if there are not a lot of turnovers that lead to points, this game will have trouble going over 46. Biggest risk will be IU going to almost all passing which could lead to more clock stoppages and more possessions.  I think Iowa will do what they typically do and try to establish the run and short passing game.  IU will also try and run some and will have no choice but to do short passing with the way Iowa plays defense.  Both teams should also struggle in the red zone.  I see this game staying under and it wouldn’t surprise me if it ended up under 40.  

Prediction:  40 pts 

I'm mostly Big10, nice writeup on Michigan St.

Tucker came in so late last yr along with covid didn't give him a chance. The Sparty O-line was not very good, IMO, and I don't expect them to be much better this yr. Spartan defense should still be the strength here. I have NW RSW's below 6.5 so a Sparty victory here would give me a smile. They have a few very good WR's, like Nailor.

NW lost sooooooooo much, no way they match last yr's production. And their run game was lousy anyways.

Leaning Under on this game. Am expecting a close finish.

Indy at Iowa;

Penix is 100% and will start, really like WR Fryfogle, this guy can catch the ball in a crowd. Great hands. Surprised when projected starting RB Sampson James jumped ship to Purdue just about 10 days ago. And now Carr (from USC) is the starter. Allen really likes Carr, maybe a run game will appear? As far as Penix being one dimentional, he really always has been, 25 rushing yds last yr, 119 in 2019, and 45 in 2018. He can run yet Allen has tried not to run him and for good reason. Fragile!!

Don't care for Petras at all, believe he will have an int or two against Hoosier D. Phil Parker always has a sound D. They do look a little weak on the D-line though.

Have a ML parlay with Indy, Michigan, and Ohio St. 

GL

2* Rutgers/Temple Over 50.5

(this one comes with a weather check – as of now it is expected to be clear Thursday afternoon but there is rain and some wind in forecast for all day Wed into Thursday morning.  If that shifts it could be an issue.  Rain doesn’t concern me as I think sometimes that can help with an over if it isn’t heavy rain – keep an eye on the wind and if the rain is heavy)

Rutgers is coming off a great year for the program and return almost their whole team.  Temple is coming off a miserable year where they were hammered with injuries and players missing time.  You almost need to throw the year out for Temple if you look into it.

Rutgers Offense -  Rutgers ran a lot of trick plays last year and they were able to create some scoring opportunities as a result as they greatly improved on their ppg.  Sean Gleeson is an excellent coordinator and wants to run with tempo (snap every 10-15 seconds).  Rutgers did some of this last year but with the short year in terms of practice not everything was implemented as Vedral learned offense through zoom (still 4 games with over 80 plays).  They have talented backs, an experienced QB, and an elite receiver.  They will be solid on offense (not great but also consider the opponent) and should be able to move the ball well against Temple who doesn’t return a lot up front (relying on transfers).  The biggest thing with this game is that I expect Rutgers to use tempo which will create more possessions which is always good for the over.  Another positive is Rutgers has excellent special teams – they returned 3 kicks for TD’s last year and Temple was awful in kick coverage so don’t be surprised if Rutgers has a big return.  

Continued 

Temple Offense - Temple was miserable on offense last year (huge drop once Russo was out).  They bring in Dwan Mathis from Georgia.  He was a high-ranking recruit who started the opener for GA last year.  He is 6’6 and has some athleticism.  He struggled in his start last year but was labeled as being very talented and a lot of people believed he was going to be the future QB at GA.  Adding him will help tremendously.  Temple also has decent receivers – Blue was all conference 2 years ago and they add in Anderson from Purdue (17 games 2 years – 31 catches in 2019).  They also add a transfer RB from Florida so their offense should be drastically improved.  Rutgers will be ok on defense as they have a very good def tackle in Turner and excellent linebackers.  They did lose Dwumfour which will hurt, he was very good in plugging up the middle and getting penetration.  Temple’s offensive line also returns a lot and should be better and be able to do ok in this matchup.  I expect that Temple will be able to throw the ball some and at least score in the 20’s.  

Outlook:  I expect Rutgers to come out with tempo and look to make a splash to start the season and get their fan base excited.  They should be able to score some points.  Temple has some talent and is a lot better than people will expect.  Keep in mind they won 8 games in both 2018 & 2019 – last year was a mulligan.  A total of 50 is not much in college and when you factor in tempo and look at the matchups, I think this game easily goes over that total.  Always some risk with week 1 – I think Mathis is the key – if he struggles then it will be challenging to get to 50.5.  I think they will be able to hang around enough and he will be able to make enough plays to get the total over.  

Prediction: 62 pts  

@UNIMAN

 Thanks - It’s never a bad bet to take a Northwestern under.  I don’t see them scoring much.  I took IU in every game last year.  Really like their team.  That is going to be a tough game.  I think they r better than Iowa but first game on the road in front of fans will be tough.  Their defense will give them a chance to win.  Hopefully u also bet some on the spread cause if they lose it could easily be by 3.  Good luck on the parlay   

@CFBLMONSTER

 Hi my friend great write up you have any picks for Sat good luck thanks 

That is some great research and writing.  Good Luck.