Here my early plays. I usually don't have this many this early, but really like a few, and may double down on a few of these depending on how I feel during the week, and if the lines don't move against me. (by line moves, I just mean I don't like to add on with a line that is worse than I already have. Sometimes maybe a slight move is OK, but any major move and/or move past a key number and I will usually stand pat with my original wager)
Again to note, 5 unit plays are my base for NCAA Football. I usually do 5, 10 or 15, and occasionally throw a smaller one down. I am still staying off of parlays of any kind. Wages are show as (Units risked/Units to win)
UNLV/Air Force OV 61.0 (5.5/5.0) THURSDAY
These crap fest running games have been going over with these types of teams, going to keep at it.
Navy +2.0 (11/10) FRIDAY
Like the way Navy has been playing, and SJSU is sub-par this year. Hoping Navy can run all over them.
Memphis +24.5 (5.5/5.0)
Louisville has no urgency to score or cover games of late. They look complacent. Memphis D is not horrible.
Indiana/Ohio State UN 81.0 (5.5/5.0)
Just like with IU/Wisky last week, I think OSU's D can contain IU enough to keep this under the total. That's a lot of points.
New Mexico/Fresno St OV 65.5 (5.5/5.0)
Similar theory to the UNLV-AFA game. Not sure Fresno is as great as their record/ranking. But UNM defense is SO bad, that Fresno should be able to put up a decent number themselves. Might look into a TT OV for them when it comes out. Banking on UNM getting 20+, if they do, I think it goes over easily.
Baylor/OK State OV 78.0 (5.5/5.0)
Why not, right?? This number is doable for these two teams. I wanted to grab it now, as I'm sure it will be over 80 by kickoff Saturday night. If the scoring starts off crazy, might even try to middle with a live bet.
Boise State -7.0 (-120) (6.0/5.0)
Like Wyoming last week, SDSU does not have a good pass D, and I expect Boise to be able to move the ball well. Perhaps SDSU will have a jet-lag hangover after their trip to Hawaii. SDSU's results this year have been less than impressive, and Boise is playing well against the lower tier teams they've faced.
Boise State/SDSU OV 57.5 (5.5/5.0)
See above. I doubt Boise shuts down SDSU completely. This number is very reachable as both teams will move the ball.
Any thoughts, criticisms or other are always welcome.
bk
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