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Booking friends Bets.... Need advice

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Posted: #1
I have been going back and forth on weather or not I should post this in the forum....  Someone may have experience with this issue so I guess it can't hurt to ask....  Here it goes...
 
I have a few friends that like to bet sports... They call me up, I take there action, no big deal.... These guys  are small time gamblers your $1 and $2 dollar players.... If one of these guys goes crazy he willl bet a nickel.... These guys lose almost every week, in fact I only had to pay a guy once....  No problems, seems like a good way to make an extra dime or dime and a nickel a weekend right?
 
Here is where the problem comes in...  Back at the end of March maddness I had a friend call me... He told me that his buddy (lets call him MR.X) likes to bet sports but has never had a winning week...  My buddy tells me that he will give me MR.X 's bets instead of calling them into his book.... I say sure bring it on....
 
Mr.X bets a few NBA games at the end of last year and ends up losing a few bucks....This year he calls me up to bet some NFL games and he starts off according to plan... He loses the first couple of weeks and then goes on a tear....  He hasn't lost a game (it seems) for weeks and he  is killing my bankroll... I gave him a limit of 3 dimes but he crushed me so bad I had to knock him down to 1.5 and now down to 1 dime per game....
 
So my question is, should I stop takeing this guys action?  The simple answer is yes, he beats me, why fight it?  This is a long term business a good week a good month does not matter.... I want to know if he is a long term loser... I will list his picks from the last couple of weeks, so you can see what kind of player he is...
 
He pays -110 on every play and I sell him points for 10cents a pop.... I dictitate the numbers he bets at so I try to square them up for my favor (that seems pretty obvious)...
 
Last night:
 
USF vs Rutgers over 51.5 W
 
Sunday oct 14th,
 
New England vs Dallas over 52.5 W
Minesota +4.5 W (very small bet for him/ just wanted to fade his friends who bet Chicago).
Cleveland -4.5 W
Min/ Chicago over 37.5 W
 
Sunday Oct 7th/8th
New England -16.5 W
Indy -9.5 W
Bears Green Bay over 41 W
Green Bay -3 L
Dallas -10 L
 
So he is deffinately a chalk player and an over player... He doesn't play many games, 3 or 4 a weekend...He will throw in a hockey bet for a couple of bucks every now and then... He also says that he will be betting the NBA when the season starts...My bankroll is really being stretched thin....  Is this guy a long term winning player?  Is he a total square who is on a run of a lifetime?  He had two more weeks of winners that I did not post... I don't want to get rid of a golden calf, because he is on a good run.... Already have a plan in mind, but I don't want to list it untill I get some feedback...
 
Thoughts are appreciated....
 
mods- If this is in the wrong forum I apologize... Don't know where else to list it...
 
 
 
Rookie
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Posted: #2
Sounds like a square on a hot streak.  If you can, let it ride out and you will be rewarded.
 
Captain
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Posted: #3
i wouldn't worry. if he is a typical square he will continue to bet the types of bets he makes in the future. vegas will soon adjust so these faves and overs don't continue to hit at an alarming rate... trust the power of vegas... stay the course my friend. you'll get your money back...
 
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Posted: #4
It's been sort of a square year in NFL
 
This is a pretty square player according to the plays.  If you can afford to keep him, I would.  Also, if he's hitting you for a bit, lay his bets off on someone else. . . 
Bagel Sandwiches Suck
 
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Posted: #5
it will swing back. Typical rookie that loves favorites and the over of any game..
If you are pricing the lines in your favor- then he is getting lucky. And we all know how that ends. You got better weeks ahead. Hold your ground. Also, hedge if  you want. But I feel this guy will be a bringin the money back real soon..
 
GL
 
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Posted: #6
Dollaz/ linewatcher,
 
I mentioned above that my bankroll is being stretched really thin by this guy... Need to find a banker if this guy has 1 or 2 huge weekends...
 
Instead of an every week pay out, I am planning on changing it to every 2 weeks..... Do you guys like that idea?
 
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Posted: #7
My guess is he's a square who's on a great run.  If (or I should say when) he gets cold, you'll likely get it all back and an awful lot more.  Every now and then I book very small bets for a few guys, but other than that I would rather be placing the wagers so I've got the control. 
 
Sorry I wasn't much help, that's a sticky situation.
 
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Posted: #8
Also, lay some with somebody else if you can.
 
All-Star
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Posted: #9
ride it out.  he will fade.
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #10
-you should have an avenue to lay off if you need to

-keep a spreadsheet for each of your guys so can keep things in perspective for YTD $. it helps if you are pissed about a guy hurting you
 
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Posted: #11
The big winner isn't MR X it will be the next guy who takes his action if you turn him away. I think most guys will tell you that you already made a huge mistake when you knocked him down in his limits. Look at big casinos when a table is running hot, they don't lower the limits you have to bet they increase them. I would reinstate this guy at the 3 dime limit, ride it out and as soon as the numbers balance out on dogs and fav's the squares will be dead. It happens EVERY year just wait it out.
 
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Posted: #12
Defnitely a chalk player... betting big favorites like NE, Indy, GB and Dallas... Definetely shade the lines 1/2 point in favor of the dogs.   The question is will he keep it up probably not.
 
I'd be willing to bet he will be on Dallas this week make it -10 or -10.5 and Indy make it -3.5.  Ultimately he should cool off but if it is to much action for you to handle then let him go.
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
i would say put some of the action in with matchbook.
 
 u can make some juice on top of the play as well, and maybe keep some of it yourself since he doesnt seem like he is going to continue to win for long....
 
i thought about taking a couple buddies' bets based on matchbook's line with about 5 to 10% on top for myself.  i would just submit everything or almost everything and take the comission....
 
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Posted: #14
maybe you can try the 2 week thing, let him build up a nice stack and get greedy and probaly lose it on a trap play...but i still think u got hustled
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by BustinPiles:

 Ultimately he should cool off but if it is to much action for you to handle then let him go.
 

Best advice in this whole thread. It all depends on your situation, ME.


Good luck.

 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:

-you should have an avenue to lay off if you need to

-keep a spreadsheet for each of your guys so can keep things in perspective for YTD $. it helps if you are pissed about a guy hurting you

I do have a booking system for all of my guys.... I can lay off his bets through matchbook.... The question is how much of it should I lay off? 

 
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Posted: #17
mmacc,
 
I don't want to let this guy go.... I am convinced he is a gold mind... I would rather get a banker then get rid of this guy.... His action has become to much for me, so I need to knock him down....
 
koaj,
I just answered my own question..... If he wants bet 3dimes lay off 2 keep 1 if that is what I am comfortable with.... Didn't have enough coffee yet...
 
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Posted: #18
if he is a chalk/over player.. you will come on top by end of year.. and wait til he gets cold.. he will try to win it back and lose even more.. so i would let him bet more than a dime then...
 
Prospect
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Posted: #19
Start posting his play here and Tout them as "LOCKS OF THE YEAR" - It seems like whenever I see that L word on here the play loses!!!
 
On a more serious tip,I had a similar problem 2 years ago. I had guy that almost wiped out my whole bankroll with a hot streak in baseball. Once he was hot and remained hot for a couple of weeks, I started laying off 75% of his action. I did this until he had back to back losing weeks. I must say since then he has given it all back and then some. I would suggest laying off some of his action to protect your bankroll if it is low until things turn around. Like you said this is a marathon not a sprint, so dont let a few winning weeks deter you -in the long run he will be a loser.
 
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Posted: #20
i agree w/ refer EXCEPT you had to knock down his limits if you have no bankroll. Just like betting your own $ you have to set a limit on HIS bets. That was your mistake early on. NOW, take his bets but only keep maximum 5% of your bankroll. You can call the rest off for a % or a better line. He will lose. imho, i'd rather be a dumb bookie than a smart handicapper. I think i'm the latter, but can't be the former for fear of losing my job.
 
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Posted: #21
Male-- I love to gamble.  I have a local and an online account.  That being said, I have about 4 or 5 that call me up to place bets and I used to put everything through to the local or on line account.  My cousin also has about 4 guys that call and put stuff in through him.  When we used to put sstuff through to the local, we would be on a quarter sheet... meaning we would get a quarter of the losses.  However, we were responsible for the payments every week (less the 1/4).
 
Well after doing this for quite a while, my cousin and I said why bother putting the shit through when more often that not, in the long run, the bookies usually always win... especially in the case our our 8-10 guys who are predominantly favorite loving mother f-ers.
 
Now granted, some weeks you will lose.  You just have to ride the wave knowing that they will eventually lose.  For instance, last night I loved Rutgers and had just over 1,200 on them myself.  In addition to that, some of the guys called up and they all played south florida.  We kept it all and made of very very well.
 
Like you, we do try to have some limit on games.  We try not to keep more than a dime at most on a game so anything above that, we push off.
 
My recommendation to you if you can, is to keep booking the action.  Try and get a partner if possible.
 
GL.
 
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Posted: #22
Devil,
 
I am seriously considering getting a partner.... Thanks for the advice..
 
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Posted: #23
A partner and a place to push off some of the action and you'll be fine.  I don't know a lot of rich gamblers but I sure know of a lot of rich bookies.  The more clients you got, the better because they are all not going to win everytime.
 
What pisses us off sometimes though is when we love a side and bet it ourselves and then our guys come in with the same side... we of course, push it all off and after the game is over, we are  because we lost.
 
 
 
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Posted: #24
To further add this is the exact reason I would prefer betting the games then booking action... I don't want to lose my earnings on a square who gets on a hot streak.
 
Funny story:
My wife's cousin calls me for plays through another guy I know. He started booking action this year and I gave him Florida Atlantic against Minnesota... The guy said did you get that from (BustinPiles) he said no I do my own research... Bookie:He says to him where does Florida Atlantic play? Wife's cousin: His response Florida.
 
So now he doesn't play the less popular games because he said the dude would cut him off if he knew he was getting plays from me.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by BustinPiles:

To further add this is the exact reason I would prefer betting the games then booking action... I don't want to lose my earnings on a square who gets on a hot streak.
 
Funny story:
My wife's cousin calls me for plays through another guy I know. He started booking action this year and I gave him Florida Atlantic against Minnesota... The guy said did you get that from (BustinPiles) he said no I do my own research... Bookie:He says to him where does Florida Atlantic play? Wife's cousin: His response Florida.
 
So now he doesn't play the less popular games because he said the dude would cut him off if he knew he was getting plays from me.

LMAO

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