Posted:
#1
I posted about this in the 'trap' thread, but wanted to start a new post.
Here's what I said in that thread ....
Northwestern (2-0) at home, only 3.5 pt favorites vs. Boston College (1-1* ..... their one win was against Maine, and their loss was against Miami, who we all just saw get killed).
Northwestern found a way to win on the road at Syracuse (who played well against USC), and then NU beat Vandy (and played solid defense) a week after Vandy played well to a top10 team.
So, given the 3-pt boost that home teams get, the books seem to think that Northwestern is only a 1/2 pt better than Boston College.
Sagarin Ratings has NU as #33 and BC as #76, and Sagarin has NU winning this game by 10.
So, this seems fishy to me. Obviously my instinct would be to jump all over Northwestern.
Thoughts on why this line is so close? ... What do you guys think will happen in this game?
----
Also, does anyone have any historical data on Sagarin point spreads? Or Sagarin's correlation to ATS / results?
Here's what I said in that thread ....
Northwestern (2-0) at home, only 3.5 pt favorites vs. Boston College (1-1* ..... their one win was against Maine, and their loss was against Miami, who we all just saw get killed).
Northwestern found a way to win on the road at Syracuse (who played well against USC), and then NU beat Vandy (and played solid defense) a week after Vandy played well to a top10 team.
So, given the 3-pt boost that home teams get, the books seem to think that Northwestern is only a 1/2 pt better than Boston College.
Sagarin Ratings has NU as #33 and BC as #76, and Sagarin has NU winning this game by 10.
So, this seems fishy to me. Obviously my instinct would be to jump all over Northwestern.
Thoughts on why this line is so close? ... What do you guys think will happen in this game?
----
Also, does anyone have any historical data on Sagarin point spreads? Or Sagarin's correlation to ATS / results?
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