Bowl Game Openers

I actually have a few minutes to briefly write a few thoughts on this morning’s play.  I watched the Miami (OH) vs. Ball State game a few short weeks ago as they were playing for the bowl bid.  The biggest takeaway I saw with my own eyes is that Miami (OH) really could not protect the passer when Ball State brought any pressure.  7 sacks allowed that day!  I’ve since looked further at the numbers and against the better defenses they’ve played, pass protection has been a problem.

Iowa – 3 sacks allowed

Western Kentucky – 7 sacks allowed

Cincinnati – 5 sacks allowed

Ohio U. – 7 sacks allowed

In their first 5 wins of the 6 game win streak, they were much improved in this category, but against what competition…… against Kent State, Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan, and Buffalo they allowed 2, 3, 1, 1, 2 sacks.  Granted the QB change from Bahl to Ragland did occur around this time, but it’s important to note that 2015 starter Zach Hovey (LT) has been out all season. Miami (OH) is #126 rank in Adjusted Sack Rate Allowed.  #124 on standard downs and #122 on passing downs.  Current starter Gus Ragland sack rate is 9.7% and former starter Billy Bahl sack rate is 13.2%.  Both are very high.

It’s subtle in Coach Martin’s quote, but he did make mention an initial shock that they were playing an SEC opponent.  Yes, Mississippi State is without DE A.J. Jefferson, but overall the talent discrepancy between these two schools should become apparent in this pass protection / pass rush aspect of the game.  It is noted that Mississippi State advanced stats don’t show a very good pass rush, but I think they’ll take advantage of this Miami (OH) weakness today.

Another matchup/numbers finding that can’t be ignored is Miami (OH) run defense is a modest #73 in Rushing S&P+ and #80 in Rushing Success Rate (better at stopping long run plays (#19) than at stopping 1^st downs/long drives).  Mississippi State running game is the strength of their offense; they rank #7 in Rushing S&P+, #39 in Rushing Success Rate, and #15 in Rushing IsoPPP.  Yes, a total of 3 O-linemen are out, but a closer look (as far as I can tell) shows only one Calhoun as a starter (started 9 of 12).  Story and Williams played in 8 and 7 games, but were out to finish the season and as far as I can tell are more reserves than starters.  It should be noted that Mississippi State ran for 457 yards (9.7 ypc) against Ole Miss with nearly the same guys available (Calhoun the exception I believe).  The top two runners (QB Fitzgerald and RB Williams) are both Sophomores.  I think they’ll stay motivated and play hard in a bowl game.

There is basically no sample size, but recall that all three 5-7 bowl teams in 2015 came away with a win.  I think Mississippi State will be motivated enough under Mullen’s leadership to show up and prove they belong in a bowl and head into 2017 on another positive note.  The talent discrepancy along the Miami (OH) O-line  / Mississippi State front 7 is too much in my opinion.  Heavy Favs have not done well yet this bowl season, but I think that starts to change in this game.