Bowl Thread....

But I do like talking about games.  And I get asked a lot about the statistical side of things - so I am going to provide some statistics that I have calculated that I use to help me handicap.  THIS IS ONLY PART OF THE PROCESS.  It is not the whole thing.  There is gut feel (eye test), and these power ratings are limited in their use.

But I feel like it might be interesting to some, and I really do rely on these numbers throughout the season pretty heavily - but even more so in bowl season.

Keep in mind these points:

*  These are weighted stats.  This is at the crux of what I believe statistics need to be in order to be effective.  This means they are weighted by the strength of the opponents - and not only the overall strength of opponent - but broken down in to offensive categories and defensive categories.  So if a team rushes well against a top 10 rushing defense, that counts more than rushing well against a bottom 10 rushing defense.

*  Bowl games are strange.  Especially early bowl games.  And because of the makeup of the college football schedule (only 3 games or so outside of your own conference), relative strength of conferences can be hard to compute.  So when you have a team in the MWC playing a team from the Sun Belt (SJS vs Ga St), and my number is about 10 points different than the real line - it is less significant than if this was in the Championship Semi Finals.  There is just more variance here.  Doesnt mean I dont like Ga St - I do and it will be one of the bigger games of the early bowl seasons for me - but I have no illusions about it being anything more than a shit game where a lot of variance could happen.

*  Coaching changes and motivation are not included here.  You can read your own tea leaves when it comes to these two subjects - I do it as well - but they arent represented here.

*  These are season long numbers.  They do not represent trends (teams getting better or worse ie:  Oregon), current injuries (Baylor QB situation etc), or injuries during the middle of the season that are now resolved (TCU).

I use these numbers each and every week.  But they are a starting point for me.  I go through a process on each game after seeing these numbers.

Hope they help - and I would be willing to discuss all of this if anyone is interested.  The copy and pasting of a table here is terrible, but I am going to try and get it right.

GL all.

School,  Real World Line,  Stats Model 1,  Stats Model 2, and O/U efficiency.

The two stats models predict a results line.  This is what the stats model think the result will be.  They use different numbers and priorities, but I use them both.

The O/U efficiency is how efficient one offense should be against the other defense.  A positive number means an edge to that offense against the other defense, and a negative number means an edge to the defense.  Two big positive numbers would suggest a high scoring game, and two big negative numbers would suggest low scoring.

This thread isnt for everyone.

You will find a million pick threads.

I am sure there will be plenty of picks also.

Two negative numbers between OU and Clemson 

Also I am sure sure of the Baylor numbers, does that assume 3rd/4th string QB? I also expected the Oregon O/U efficiency to be higher. 

It is just a starting point.

For me - something objective to start with helps me.

Well - TexTch / LSU is a total of 73.5 - the second highest bowl game total.  Not sure why that surprised you.

TXTch defense overall is 122 adjusted out of 128.  So basically anyone playing them will have a positive offensive efficiency value.  LSU happens to be the 21st overall adjusted offense out of 128, so this is saying that LSU should be pretty much scoring at will on TT.  Conversely, TT offense is top 10, and LSU defense in about the middle of the pack - so TT should also move the ball.

There are two negative numbers in Clemson / OKL - but very small numbers.  They are almost close to even.  According to my stats alone - it would suggest the under 65 in that game is a good bet.

I addressed your last comment in my "mental masturbation wall of text" in the first post.  These numbers do not take in to consideration injuries, or trends - and I specifically spell out the Baylor QB situation and the Oregon upward trend not being in the stats.  Maybe go back and read the first post.

I also believe that more rush stats is how a team will play on the field again the clock. Arizona and NM for example at first glance looks like an over. But NM is a running team. In a game like Ok-St vs Ole-Miss, OSU is one of the best passing teams and Ole Miss is one of the best running, which OSU won't be able to stop. 

Oregon I think is the strongest over play. They score fast and can't stop anyone.

I so need the Help.....

Love the Excel. For now I'm thinking Oregon, Baylor (assuming Sidham plays), Mid-Tenn and Ind as the 4 strongest overs. 

Your post made me reconsider OU Over. I really liked that play, CFN says 81 points. Like, a wild New Year's Eve shootout.

bol pal

The first column is the real line you can bet.

The next two columns are from two different results based stats models.

The last column is from an offensive efficiency model that shows in that specific matchup - how well an offense will do against a defense.

Once again - this is just a start for me.  Ga St wont be my biggest bet of the bowl season - although I cant ignore there is a big difference there - and I do like them even outside of stats.  A 5-7 team from the MWC coming east to Orlando, against a team that is playing in their FIRST BOWL GAME EVER?  Reading motivation is like reading tea leaves, but this is screaming at me.  But the variance in a game like this is huge.  So it will probably be the biggest pre-Christmas wager I make, but a game later like Memphis has me much more interested.

But for instance - I dont think I will be taking Navy.  Even though my numbers are telling me it is a great spot - I know that Pitt has many weeks to prepare - and that always is bad for a one dimensional option attack.  

For me - these numbers are a good reality check.  I cant tell you how many times my brain said "how is USC favored over Utah" and I get the numbers and they are telling me they arent favored by enough - and I know that I need to at least rethink the whole thing.  On the other hand - a game like FSU / Hou - has me scratching my head - in no world do I see Houston at a PK with FSU - but it makes me think that laying 7 is maybe too much.

GL