Bowl trend is now 10-2 ATS

Please clarify:

On Dec. 30 you said that this trend was 10-2. That may not be correct. My research is 8-4. If you searched the Rush Def. stats trend system AFTER the 12 games had played then you will find some inconsistencies with those stats before the games played. 

I have a site that shows the date appropriate Rush DEF. stats BEFORE the games were played. Mem/FAU and Lib/CC show different YTD stats before and after the game. Because the net differences between these team matchups were small before the games, +4 FAU and +3 CC, the after games stats show +5 Mem and +10 Lib. I suspect you used the after game info to support your trend record. 

I've been follow his trend all from espn stat and it came out all won, so just follow or fade period.

@bbe_bb_2006

 Are you saying that you saw the Rush Def. stats from ESPN BEFORE the games played? 

Have a look at this site that shows the stats BEFORE the bowls started. I doubt that the data is not consistent with your stats.

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-rushing-yards-per-game?date=2020-12-20

ESPN updates after each game so those averages change and the pick might be different, especially if the loser gave up a huge amount of rushing yards in bowl games and the opposing teams were close to each other in rankings. 

Gratefulbets I spent the last hour on the Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina rushing yards allowed. When I go to the Espn website and pull up final 2020 rushing yards allowed this is what I see.

Covers and Espn before games played December 25th

Liberty 138.2 TR site 134.9

Coastal Carolina 142.8 TR site 131.6 

Clemson 99.8 TR site 101.2

Oklahoma 90.6 TR site 95.8

This is on December 24th before any of these teams played in a bowl game.

Both sites show Wisconsin at 93.7 

I have pulled my rankings from Covers and Espn and they both match up.

If the TR site, Covers and ESPN on December 24th all agree on 1 team out of 5 that being Wisconsin and yet the TR site numbers do not match the other 4 teams I can only go with what I see. I do appreciate your research and opinion as if I state something it should be accurate.  

Thanks for clarification. We're all trying to win!

i remember past seasons.... better run team... defense, offense, net, per yard. not sure which.

but the idea was that better "run" teams (defense too) do better.

i ran quick numbers.. run defense better than other teams run defense (rush yards per game) by 50 yards per game = 64.6% ATS (42-23) since (inclusive) 2015. 2015 is cherry-picked but 50%ish before that. not a loser before that..... NOTE THAT THIS IS UP TO 2019. not this season.s

sportsdatabase doesn't have the stats for this season.... i'll do it by hand.

i'll run some ypc stuff too.

better yards per carry defense = high 50%ish since (include) 2015.. didn't matter if i added a 0.5 ypc difference. again no 2020

should be other stuff we can do.

i had a similar situation when i ran this type of system a few years back.

i too checked the system in close to real time, but sometimes i did use the rushing stats from after the bowl game too.

Guess I should have went with the trend And went with Mississippi State

i have defensive rushing yards at 13-2 ATS (i am using stats up till today unfortunately).

a fair number of the differentials are within 10-15 points. so a bit worried they wouldn't have been the pick before the game. i can probably check

jimrockford22 I like your way of thinking. Get creative, patterns are always right in front of our eyes! As of now the trend team that allows less rushing yards per game is at 13-3 ATS in this years bowl games with Army pending. I am going to do a bit more of a write up tomorrow morning. 

@gotime

 hey there, have you ever cross referenced this trend/statistic to NFL plays? Please let me know, might be something to look into! 

@gotimeT

Thanks for checking on those stats. I compared the TR values for all of the games and only a few teams were different from what Covers offers but I did not check with Covers stats until after I read your post on Wed. From the WF/Wisc game to the end of the bowls there are only 2 games where the values are different, but they didn't change the selection. Only the 2 aforementioned games of Mem/FAU and Lib/CC were a concern.

Ok: TR 96, Covers 92

WVa: TR 133, Covers 126

Army: TR 123, Covers 121

Thanks for presenting this trend.

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/24

Thebookbreakers have not done any work on the NFL regarding this. Although it may be a great idea! I like it. 

@gotime

@jimrockford22

I ran the Rush Offense values of TR for these Bowl games up through WVa/Army. If you take R/O by itself it's 12-5...and the Rush Def is now 14-3.

HOWEVER, if you only pick the team that has BOTH the edge in Off and Def the result is 9-0.  

RUSH OFF. for HAW 156 / HOU 155 too close to call so no play (so no loss). 

Teams in that category already won:

APP, GASo, UTSA, GSU, Lib, OKSt, WI, OK, Army

Teams that qualify with both Off/Def Rush:

OSU, ISU 

Thanks guys!

Happy New Year's covers friends 

Are Ohio St and Iowa St only teams left that fit this trend?

a few thoughts,

as i said, the general idea was around a few years ago...... better run. better defense. propensity to run.... teams that rely on pass heavily are bad.... service academies are awesome in bowls. why? because they run the ball....... basically idea is that bowl games have a real simplicity to them. lack of prep, rustiness etc. 

these system only works for bowls, not NCAAF .... never seen them applied to NCAAF regular season nor NFL football.. but the data's all there..

as to only 2 teams left, wouldn't every game have a run defense that gave up fewer yards?

i also remember and have seen on competing forum that there's an idea these systems work better the earlier the bowl games. i didn't find that much. but i'll slice and dice with killersports.com

also, we could look at massey rankings.. which team has better defense? again, if we look at today's numbers it will reflect the bowl game.. but we can probably wayback-machine it.

What do we do with that OSU-CLEM gm ? 

Great thread. 

Thanks everyone.

Happy New Year.

@Jshively11

 Yes, that's the only 2 left. 17 games, so far, is an extremely small sample. 

Remember that it's the ROI and net that we seek, unless you're just a degenerate ;-)

14-3 = 83%  14 x 0.91 = 12.74 - 3 = 9.74 units ROI: 65%

9-0 = 100%  9 x 0.91 = 8.19 units  ROI: 91%

gotime...According to TR: NW 6 points, AL 3 points, OSU 3 points, is this what you have?