Quick little recap on plays last week ..
Utah Baby!!! .. No-Doubt-A-Bout-It .. Think they were a little vengeful from that 2019 conf champ game loss? .. yah .. and keep in mind Oregon has not locked things up yet and Oregon State is one of those teams vying .. huge loss for the ducks .. might end up being real huge ..
Nebraska - Poor huskers, best 3-8 team of all time .. Gotta say was worried when Huskers fell behind so quick but really impressed run game didn't do much hundo yds 2 y/carry but wisco only 3 TFL's .. ZERO SACKS .. and everything moving forward .. pass game 66% 345 yds was like wow where did that come from? .. 2 picks lead to -2 in TO's and also just made things too easy for Wisco's run game .. impressed they were able to hang around w those things hanging over their head esp in a HUGE MUST WIN game for Wisco in Madison.. Def a worry they are at like RBs #3 and 4 in the depth chart at least they were in that game ..
Louisiana spread reflected a team that had been coasting to the champ game for a few weeks of low effort games .. they did coast but as noted when we played it Billy Boy's last ride and he wasn't gunna let another Alpha G-5'er like Liberty screw up his 1 loss record so close to his moment of arrival in big time college football .. LAYED-THE-WOOD .. obvi +6 in turnovers means some luck involved but they were ready, game was theirs wire to wire ..
Miami in a pretty heavy rain most of the game still passing heavy right to the end .. they even have a running back idk they coulda probably killed off 4 VT possession by going 3n out running the ball late in the game, finally did on the last drive .. was actually getting worried they were gunna screw it up or fumble or whatever .. VT was a mess from the start but switched the QB's like i mentioned they might (start getting reps beyond burmeister) and got some lucky catches rain with the new guy mighta had some guys slippin around on D and got the onside kick for VT nearly led to disaster .. UM pass rush eventually started mauling the new VT QB and luck ran out .. would expect the MAXIEST OF MAX EFFORTS from VT this week although very tough to say what level their max is even on .. anyway pretty good pick ..
recap cont'd ..
UTSA man yeah i mentioned it was more of a believing fans team of destiny pick and while team of destiny is a huge understatement now the bet unfortunately turned into what those usually turn into .. pretty much chasing UAB from the start, did have a lead at one point but relinquished quick .. Can't blame me for being a fan if you didnt see the ending to this game check it out .. UNREAL way to extend their streak to 11-0!!!.. Couldn't believe the call UAB coach made 4th and maybe 2 inches? 1st down seals it albeit at their own 40ish yd line up 3 points .. got an OL thats the class of the conference .. Super strong all con RB and a QB that's 6'2 215 QB .. should be able to get 2 inches 99 out of 100 times just sneakin it .. anyway .. team of destiny off miracle win marches on .. to North Texas ... whose fighting for a bowl .. something we thought we'd never see .. lol .. i mean except for last year although fair to say mean green kinda snuck in there ..
Illinois gotta like them hangin tough all game .. most of it anyway .... guys throw a pick 6 with a minute or so left in desperation mode to kill a great cover worthy effort and looked like we were getting MOOSE C0CK'D in the AZZ BIG again like we did with the Clem / FSU Under .. thank you ILLINOIS for not giving up and marching right down the field for a TD and shootin that moose dead between the antlers .. they should play like that more often!!
BC / FSU .. absolute F'ing tease .. FSU had free f'ing reign on offense as I hoped BC D was getting thrashed .. Jerko finally figured out how to throw the ball .. 5 turnovers on downs in the game many in a spot we needed a score .. it was a pretty bad first half for the total i pretty much conceded the loss .. but got things going H2 and ended with two legit shots right at the end either team to take us over and or BC coulda tied w a FG and get there in OT .. bad pick but a bummer none the less .. FSU woulda layed the wood even harder .. ton of penalties 13 for 120 yds bunch last game vs GT ... not a good winning trend ..
BRIDGE PLAYs
LIBERTY / ARMY OVER 53
Think Libs will just be too much on offense the same way Wake was and while a little bit slow to the ball Willis' set of skills running / passing combined with 5 pretty good WR's some real good and an otherwise good traditional run game / RB's / OL will be too much for Army's D that obvi thrives getting bodies stacked up like we'd see vs Wisco .. Lib does play some D too pretty good run D but we've seen UNT and ULM and obvi ULL now rack up offense on them .. no reason to think they'll have the goods shutting the cadets down here and Army steady finding spots to take big shots passing similar to how Air Force can has led to more scoring shots this year .. Def get why the total is where its at .. if Lib fails to show up then Army can just slow roll a lead and get the clock to zero in a hurry on us .. but def like the prospects of Lib bouncing back its been a rough year, they are (besides last week) killer at home and this is definitely a redemption shot for Willis who was on alot of top draft pick lists coming into the season .. had a tough year like many many others, nothing should stop them having a great day vs this secondary and if so think Army will also find ways to keep pace as we've seen vs teams of similar profile like W.Kentucky and Wake .. Line is down a point or two from open and would note its not dissimilar to other times they've had a total in this range and they've covered fairly easy .. Maybe one thing to consider is whether Navy game on deck in two weeks .. might be good to check how they play games before that game but think we'll be good here ..
BRIDGE PLAYS (Posted last week DK and BOL's Look ahead lines)
OHIO ST / MICHIGAN +7.5
Well after that Mich State mauling hard to imagine this line cracks too much below 7, maybe later in the week but I doubt it .. took the risk but not really realized ..
OKLAHOMA STATE +1
Thats more like it .. opens -3 and think we got a pretty good value here ..
NEBRASKA - PICK'EM
Same thing line opened -4 .. woop! .. thought Iowa might really struggle offensively and even gave Illinois a shot to grab a win .. won't say it was close esp by the end although a few times Iowa fans' hearts might have been beatin quick .. but in the eyes of gamblers and bookies it was really not a good look .. you have many teams down the stretch w their identities in hand and layin the wood in front of supportive home crowds .. not the Hawkeyes .. and not a surprise they had trouble scoring last week .. Wouldn't be too interested in laying 4 not for big money anyway .. there is a reason Huskers are 3-8 team found every which way to lose games this year and while they are a covering MACHINE as a dog and might even win this game we found out last week why it can be tough to win by margin on Iowa .. pick 6's, scoop'n scores and turnovers galore .. could very well see Nebraska getting out some frustration and laying the wood in a spot like this ... if they can ... could also see a true to form slug fest and being very satisfied even a half a point win lol .. either way like the spot for them although Iowa is also gunna give us a big effort here too .. Friday game so still viable in the division by kickoff .. must win spot for them .. def worried though down a few RB's on the depth chart .. will def be worried if they can't find a run game and relying on Martinez to bag them 350 again .. could happen, Iowa did get throttled virtually by 1 of Purdue's receivers .. Nebraska does have a couple good ones including Samurai Samori but man .. nothing sure fire to rely on .. just like it at a Pick .. hope you grabbed it there ..
SMALLER
UTEP +14
UAB off an extraordinary bubble burst that in my fiew they should have won 99 out of 100 times .. see recap above on UTSA game .. wow .. anyway they are out for the division and while I do note they are a covering machine at home this is just such an epic let down spot that I gotta play this line .. UTEP having a dream season themselves went 6-1 bowl eligible then 3 straight losses and finally secured a sure thing bowl last week vs Rice .. honestly don't think that's what they are still playing for .. need to pay everyone of these teams back for about 10 years in the CFB torture chamber and happy to exploit this letdown spot for UAB .. anyway .. gotta play it .. smaller ..
BRIDGE PLAY
W.KENTUCKY +1
Def a worry w Marshall at home but just too many .. wayyyy too many times we've seen Wells unable to perform well throwing the ball and wasn't a surprise when they didn't have a great game vs FAU and UAB shut them down and ECU was able to out score them or really not almost but SHOULD have lost to ODU .. just way too many whiffs and one team that hasn't whiffed at all on offense is the Hilltoppers .. simply unreal system and have the guys to be effective .. Tough to see thru some of these scores because of how both can play fast and furious but I have Hills D as being pretty good and Marshall's a little better .. both good quality G5 D's w Hills dishing out 60 TFL's to 40 given up 27 sacks to 12 but keep in mind that's in 572 of their pass att's vs 415 for opponents .. last 5 passers didn't crack 60% and bagged 13 picks in last 3 games .. 18 on the year .. maybe getting better back there .. and run D giving up under 4 y/carry .. FAU 25 yds on 26 att's last week and run game is easily their bread and butter .. totally ineffective .. The one hangup is while they have been cleaning up vs the doldrums of the conference they had a tough start against some pretty decent teams .. but what we saw last week vs maybe does give us some insight into their improvement .. FAU is out of the conf hunt but is bowl eligible with a win and got smoked bad.. This game wraps up the division and just gunna bank on Marshall not having an answer to Hills offense ..
SMALLER
TULSA +7
ehhh .. one win from bowl eligibility .. yeah im not super excited to play this one but hope Hurricane can give us a category 5 effort .. SMU off a full throttling by Cincy .. sometimes the Bearcat has to remind the conference whose boss huh? .. Tulsa just been an epic dog over the last couple years and while they haven't lived up to expectations this year the line is reflecting that and we'll see .. SMU in a spot with a bowl locked up and not much else to play for .. Tulsa could very well make my ML parlay card ..
SMALLER
OREGON ST +7
Just gotta ride the beavers until they do me wrong .. Total dream season and no doubt they want nothing more than to beat these Dam Ducks .. I don't even think it matters whether Wash St loses Friday and Beavs don't have a shot at the conference but holy smokes don't think many saw this team coming and now they are coming for blood and have a run game and pass game that should get traction vs Oregon's (really really not impressive and could almost call them bad) defense and that's all they need to stay within this number .. slow moving drives by both teams heavy run action should also limit possessions and that only helps us I think .. Almost feels like if Huskies help them lock up the conference and take the pressure off then Oregon would be right consider having a healthy shot at revenge vs the Utes over winning the Civil War .. that's unlikely though I'd say Ducks want this one almost as bad as Beavs and will be in a bad spot again as likely decent size dogs to the Utes in 2 weeks .. Ducks huge effort at home is keepin us well outside of Bridge Play territory but gotta take a free TD in this one ..
BRIDGE PLAY - CHAMPIONS WEEK
GEORGIA -3.5
Hit at BOL seein -3.5 and -4's .. never thought I'd be layin points against Bama and there's a consideration to be had whether its worth it and also if the game is slow and tight UGA up 3 Kirby is def not the coach you want to land you a late insurance score .. that said -3 isin't all that safe a place and UGA top to bottom getting it done every week this year and Bama already a loss to a strong D with a very marginal offense .. we'll see what happens .. if Bama can crack the code of this D and points start flyin then my sense is there may be an issue with UGA keeping up .. recall last year UGA with a really top notch D had a little success early but fell apart late after big Sp Teams play Bama O totally took over ..
@jbl
Tough break we had a good line which obvi included Martinez playing, def blindsided since I didn't see him limp off afterward or anything like that .. I'm not posting a hedge out play in here since its underwater so play stands for my record but yeah I vigged out about half my wager on Iowa ML still hoping Huskers find a way to pull it off .. obvi can't recommend playing it at this juncture with a new QB we have seen almost none of this year .. Nebraska didn't have a great run game last week vs Wisco and as mentioned is down a few RB's .. Martinez landing shots the couple pretty good WR's was def what kept them in that game .. if the run game is nill this week unsure what keeps the offense moving .. I don't know anything about the new QB either maybe legit who knows .. hope that helps .. I did play the under 45 for a few bucks when it opened added a little more at 41 after the QB news ..
@DrStrangelove
Yeah such a bummer though coulda had +13 last week and was focused on hitting some others just wasnt really thinking about that one .. think ASU is a fairly similar team and maybe a little down this late in the year not sure what the state of their D is but Beavs came right at them and beat em.. long drives Devils had no answer .. even the defense was doing just enough .. devils did miss a few FG's but wouldn't have been the diff .. obvi its a balllz to the wall game here but idk Ducks D is just so hit and miss .. like that one too .. we'll see .. 
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