4-3 YTD
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The California Golden Bears take on the Nevada Wolfpack tonight in a Pac-10 WAC battle showcased on ESPN. This is a huge nationally televised game for Nevada quarterback Colin Kapernick who is coming off a brilliant previous game gaining over 400 yards and scoring four times. Last night we saw how tired legs on a short week playing away from home is very detrimental in the first half of the season as Cincinnati got blown out by the Wolfpack of NC State. I realize both teams are only on four days of rest but the home town crowd will be enough to bring Nevada up to full speed. The Pack have been perfect in their last four games coming off a 40+ point performance against the spread. They have also covered 5 in a row coming off a win in their last game. When winning by more than 3 touchdowns Nevada has come back and won the next game against the number at a 100% rate dating back four spots. In the last 38 games at Mackay Stadium, Nevada has covered at a 69% rate posting a 26-12 record. Cal on the other hand has put you in red numbers if you have backed them in their last 19 road games only covering 6 of them. They have also failed to keep the momentum rolling after covering a game they have only covered the next contest 2 of the last 7 times. Playing WAC Conference foes, the Golden Bears have left you with a losing ticket the last five games.
Short week here for both teams, Cal should feel the lack of rest/preparation more than Nevada as they have only had 72 hours in which to prepare for the unique Nevada offensive style. Kapernick is going to show off all game as he will finally get the national exposure he deserves. If the Pack dig themselves an early hole, Colin will be grinding back till the clock expires in the 4th quarter.
Whether or not this will be a shoot out is a toss up, we will see plenty of running in this game not only on the ground but on the clock as well. With a total of 66 your going to need 10 touchdowns to get the number. With both teams not fully rested, there could be valuable time left out there getting up to the line. I don’t see this game getting out of hand either way tonight which is great when taking the points.
I am going to back the Pack tonight, like I should have yesterday. Big game for both teams, but deep down I know Nevada wants it more. Cal has looked pretty the last two weeks but tonight Bear fans and backers could be in for a little wake up call.
Play Against: California as a small road favourite on 4 or less days rest facing a non conference opponent coming off an ATS win of 10+ points in their previous game. A team system that has been hitting at the window for backers at a 71% rate dating back to the beginning of my research.
Good luck tonight,
BB.
Nevada Wolfpack +2.5
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