Posted:
#1
In full disclosure, I'm a Clemson fan.
For those that don't know, South Carolina has beaten Clemson four straight years, all by double digits, most recently with a 27-17 win at Clemson against a better-than-mediocre Clemson team. The spread opened at Clemson +6 and moved to +5 immediately.
In further full disclosure, I thought we would win the first three of the last four because I was a homer and last year I wasn't sure. I've only started betting regularly this year, but in games where I've made a call (I've made more predictions than actual bets), I'm something like 7-2. Like this game, both of the incorrect calls were away games where I predicted us to cover (NC State and Maryland).
What I've seen the last few weeks is almost certainly the best football that I've ever seen Clemson play in 10 years of being a fan. The GT game was absolutely huge, because it showed how disciplined Clemson's defense has become. In the past few years, Connor Shaw and even Dylan Thompson last year have absolutely torched Clemson by scrambling, especially on third down. This is a factor that I think Clemson will largely eliminate this year because of its discipline on defense. For the record, Clemson's defense has shown itself to be much improved all year, but because of the past few years against GT, that game stands out.
Chad Morris has a tendency to call shit plays during big games and who knows what he will do this weekend, but recently we've been doing two things well: running between the tackles and throwing deep balls. Martavis Bryant, especially, has really started to shine. When Morris tries to get too cute, bad things happen. I'm not knowledgeable about South Carolina's defensive backs, but if Clemson is able run between the tackles and throw the ball deep at all, I really like Clemson's odds of not just covering, but winning the game.
One final factor: I've been a critic of Tajh Boyd for as long as he's been the starter but it's probably been more because of the way he communicates than his on-field performance (which has been inconsistent at best in big games). I can't count the number of times I've heard him talk about "being a leader" or other bullshit. However, the interviews with Boyd that I've seen in the last few weeks have shown a different man. It seems like he doesn't give a shit and he's figured out that it's okay to just go out and play for himself, which I'd rather him be doing genuinely than trying to be something he's not.
I've watched a few South Carolina games, but I haven't seen many obvious patterns with them so I can't say as much. At the beginning of the season, I didn't think anyone on their team cared about football. This is obviously a game they want to win, but one other thing that helps Clemson is that South Carolina's most important game of the year is being played in Missouri on the same night.
Alright, tell me why I'm wrong. Seriously, tell me. I haven't bet yet.
For those that don't know, South Carolina has beaten Clemson four straight years, all by double digits, most recently with a 27-17 win at Clemson against a better-than-mediocre Clemson team. The spread opened at Clemson +6 and moved to +5 immediately.
In further full disclosure, I thought we would win the first three of the last four because I was a homer and last year I wasn't sure. I've only started betting regularly this year, but in games where I've made a call (I've made more predictions than actual bets), I'm something like 7-2. Like this game, both of the incorrect calls were away games where I predicted us to cover (NC State and Maryland).
What I've seen the last few weeks is almost certainly the best football that I've ever seen Clemson play in 10 years of being a fan. The GT game was absolutely huge, because it showed how disciplined Clemson's defense has become. In the past few years, Connor Shaw and even Dylan Thompson last year have absolutely torched Clemson by scrambling, especially on third down. This is a factor that I think Clemson will largely eliminate this year because of its discipline on defense. For the record, Clemson's defense has shown itself to be much improved all year, but because of the past few years against GT, that game stands out.
Chad Morris has a tendency to call shit plays during big games and who knows what he will do this weekend, but recently we've been doing two things well: running between the tackles and throwing deep balls. Martavis Bryant, especially, has really started to shine. When Morris tries to get too cute, bad things happen. I'm not knowledgeable about South Carolina's defensive backs, but if Clemson is able run between the tackles and throw the ball deep at all, I really like Clemson's odds of not just covering, but winning the game.
One final factor: I've been a critic of Tajh Boyd for as long as he's been the starter but it's probably been more because of the way he communicates than his on-field performance (which has been inconsistent at best in big games). I can't count the number of times I've heard him talk about "being a leader" or other bullshit. However, the interviews with Boyd that I've seen in the last few weeks have shown a different man. It seems like he doesn't give a shit and he's figured out that it's okay to just go out and play for himself, which I'd rather him be doing genuinely than trying to be something he's not.
I've watched a few South Carolina games, but I haven't seen many obvious patterns with them so I can't say as much. At the beginning of the season, I didn't think anyone on their team cared about football. This is obviously a game they want to win, but one other thing that helps Clemson is that South Carolina's most important game of the year is being played in Missouri on the same night.
Alright, tell me why I'm wrong. Seriously, tell me. I haven't bet yet.
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