CLEMSON / BAMA

WARNING:  this is a PREVIEW......not to support the side I like
  *sorry even more ragged than usual > waited till last minute again



 

Clemson       vs       Alabama


Date: Monday, January 9th
Game Time: 8:30 pm E
Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
  *grass / clear ...50-55 degrees...N winds 5-10

Network: ESPN
Officials:  Big12 yikes


In bowls....
  *Bama-   5-2 SU / 4-3 ATS / 4-3 OU
     13-0 teams are 3-7 SU / ATS in bowls....Bama is 7-10 ATS when favored by < 10......last true Fr QB to win national title was 30+ years ago

  * Clemson-  5-2 / 6-1 / 3-4
       5-0 ATS as dog with 4 SU wins....13-4 ATS as dog overall
       note:  last 24 title games....only TWICE has dog covered but not won the game....Clemson LY / Auburn

 links:    
https://www.shakinthesouthland.com/
https://www.rollbamaroll.com/
https://www.espn.com/chalk/insider/story/_/id/18414206/how-bet-alabama-crimson-tide-clemson-tigers-college-football-playoff-national-championship
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-playoff-national-championship
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/1/8/14206906/steve-sarkisian-alabama-offense-lane-kiffin-clemson-national-championship





MINDSET

Clemson-  IMO.....clearly has the edge here
  *LY....the new kid on the block...a bit unsure
   NOW?.....they have punched the bully in the face and didn't get beat up...now they get a rematch and are STILL supposed to get beat up.......................
  Bama's psychological edge is gone......mostly

Bama-  an underrated factor was their game vs Washington.....a very sloppy win that allowed Saban to really coach 'em hard this week > a perfect scenario for the Bama staff
  *also underrated was the loss of Kiffin....SURE they'll be OK...but placing a POSITIVE spin on FIRING your OC the week of the national championship?
    >>  UNCERTAINTY / CONFUSION .....with the season on the line?..............TERRIBLE




DEPTH

Clemson - 
    O - 2 sr  / 5 jr / 3 so / 1 fr.....bu 1 / 2/ 5 /3
          * OL     so >  so > sr < jr < fr.......bu  fr > fr > so < jr < jr       

     D-  4 sr / 2 jr / 3 so / 2 fr.....bu 0 / 2 / 6 / 3

     PK- sr
      P - sr
     DS- fr
     PR- jr
     KR- jr

Bama-
    O- 2 sr / 3 jr / 4 so / 2 fr......bu  1 / 4 / 4 / 2
            OL    jr  > so > jr < sr < fr......bu  fr > so > jr < so <fr

    D -  5 sr / 2 jr / 4 so......bu  1 / 4 / 2 / 4

      PK- sr
      P- jr
     DS-  sr
      PR-  FR
      KR  jr

Bama OL  310  > 305 > 320 < 310 < 300
     Clem DL 310 > 305 - 340 < 265
                       LB 235 > 230 < 215

Clem OL  295 > 325 > 310 < 340 < 315
      Bama DL 290 > 320 - 305 < (250)
                     LB 230 > 230 < 250





MATCHUP

Clemson O vs Bama D

EASY.....this will all hinge on DW....

  *Clem O may be slightly better......but Bama D is also better....probably tougher vs the run...AND pass
   they're probably a bit faster / more able to cover / tackle in space   
  *BUT....Clemson LY was without their 2 best deep threats (Williams.....and Cain)....making them SIGNIFICANTLY easier to defend
      ASSuming Gallman won't be able to run (likely)......a less than perfect game by DW means they likely lose
   *KEY?.....converting on 3rd downs......moving the chains...giving their D some rest 


Bama O vs Clemson D

EASY............Tigers stop / slow down the running game.....forcing Bama / JH into 3rd longs >> they win

  *IMO the issue Saban had with LK was his wanting to get too cute with the O....needlessly trying to 'trick' the D >> searching for the weakness of a D.....while getting away from Bama's strengths

      NOW?.....a return to what they do (better with young QB no doubt).....RUNNING the ball.....establishing the LOS .....IMPOSING their will.....working play-action / using the tight end more...occasionally going over the top to loosen things up
          note:   characteristics of a Sark O at USC as well

            $$  Hurts is fine as a passer when under no pressure.....but TERRIBLE when under duress

  *Clem D is about the same as LY......more depth.....a bit weaker vs the run (maybe)...LY's D maybe more talented.....but keep in mind their best players were out / playing hurt....this D is better overall maybe
     NOTE:    IMO.....Bama OL is very good sure.....but (like LY)....maybe overrated a bit
                 *   #88 in allowing penetration (stuff rate S&P) > Clem D #33 stuff rate / #4 sacks...they rank #108 in TFL allowed wtf / Clem D #3 in TFL...if they try to pass on early downs....they're #105 in sacks allowed

ST-  Clemson still weak at #85.....Bama #48

    FG         #65     #69
    punt      97        12
     KO       55        28
     PR        58         90
     KR        85        125
 
FP-  use in leveraging field position
  Clem O / D -  #16 / #36
  Bama -              33 / 20






Halftime / Quarter stuff.....
  *S&P....O 1st / then D

                  Clemson                     Bama

1Q                 #8/ #2                        #15 / #1

2Q                  3/15                            12/1

3Q                 23/8                              10/1

4Q                 12/56                            28/5

NOTE:    check out the difference in rushing O and D as the game progresses....
  1Q > 2Q > 3Q > 4Q

Bama O -  5.6/rush > 5.6 > 6.0 > 5.6
Bama D -  1.5 > 2.8 . 2.1 > 1.3

Clem O -  5.0/rush > 4.4 > 4.6 > 4.0
Clem D -  1.7 > 3.3 > 4.2 > 4.5

POINTS

Bama O -  9 > 12 > 10.5  > 9
Bama D -  3 > 4 > 2 > 2.5

Clem O -  11 > 10.5 > 7 > 9
Clem D -    2 > 5 > 5 > 6



WHAT'S GONNA HAPPEN?

  *thinking the opposite of LY?......but could be way off you bet..
       $  especially considering how each team plays per half/quarter (Clem gets weaker / Bama gets stronger)


CLEMSON WILL WIN.....OR GET SPANKED
  * 'all or nothing'.....IMO will be the theme of the day.....a near replica of LY is possible but not likely
  **  'spanked'....meaning Bama is up late > Clemson loses hope realizing dreams are shot to helll...game gets outta hand late

Bama should be able to RUN the ball early....trying to keep DW off the field....controlling a low scoring game
  *Bama D should be able to shut down Clem running game.....limit DW early....maybe force a few mistakes

BUT.....the BEST PLAYER IN THE NATION THE LAST 2 YEARS (no Heisman WTF)....should find his way eventually.....as Clemson D tightens up as well....adjusting to any new wrinkles Sark has added...
    forcing Bama O / QB to extend himself a bit.......EXPOSING THEIR WEAKNESS ....'allowing' Clemson D to use their strength

I think Clemson / DW finds a way to win.........plus seems like the perfect ending as well don't it?...................


PLAYS

OFFICIALLY....these huge / isolated games are tough ....and offer little if any VALUE....so smart folks should avoid any serious wagers....let the chumps have at it................

That said ha......being a chump at heart (just old / crotchety now > pretend i'm smart).....I'll throw some cash around here too

*most earlier....BM / 5Dimes / BO

Clemson ML
  *1 unit at +225

1H under 25'
  *looking to play Clem....OR Bama....or OVER  2H depending
    lean Bama 1H but won't play

 small to very small
*total sacks over 3' (both teams) at -130 (larger play you bet)
*JH rushing over 16' yds at -132.....generously offered by BM early thanks!
*DW OVER 33' passing attempts
* JH UNDER 17' completions
*HR OVER 28' yards at -120....thanks 5D !
*Clem more FD at +120
* Bama  -14' at +225 just for grins

BOL boys....enjoyed it......................

Amigo. I feel we are on the right side tonite. As always, great analysis and insight and thanks for sharing brotha. Go Clemson

Thanks BA! Your write-ups are very educational. 

Great season BA and can't wait to do it again next August.  Let's go Tigers!

thanks boys......backatcha..................


adding Deon Cain over 37' yds

may throw in some in-game stuff ....if BAC stays below  .2  or so.....

hating Clemson earlier......kinda like em now...
.I think.....adding smaller play on Clem +3'

adding Clem +3'.…...smaller play

added Clemson +5'
smaller play....

HA..............nailed that SOB................


Clemson ML  +225                      W
Bama / Clem 1H under 25'           W
Clem +3' in-game                         W
Clem +5 in-game                          W
*total sacks over 3'                        W
*JH rushing over 16' yds               W
*DW OVER 33' passing attempts    W
* JH UNDER 17' completions          W
*HR OVER 28' yards                      W
*Clem more FD                              W
*Deon Cain OVER 37' yards           W
* Bama  -14' at +225                       L

Great Job BA very impressive stuff as usual. Lets hope you feel just as confident about tuesdays pick. Keep up the hard work 

Nice job bookie!  Had them +6.5 and 2nd H, was nervous at first! 

Nailed it.  Great season brotha   Holler at me if you make your way up to New York City.  Drinks and a fat steak are on me.  We'll do it up nice 

As always, very impressive sir. 

Well done amigo. Again, much appreciation for your insight and the time you take to analyze games. Thanks  Great nite for us Clemson backers!

Man--You've nailed it again!  Another successful reg season, bowl season, and overall the best thread/read in this entire forum.  Wanted to say thanks for posting and sharing some invaluable bits of wisdom. Look forward to seeing you in here again next season!

Nice job...  I cleared over $1600 between ML/props/futures.   One of my best games ever.... still kicking myself for not grabbing the +16.5 and +19.5 Live lines early.   

Damn im jealous you were able to play all of those props, I was right next to you... Unfortunately I pulled a complete degenerate move and lost 95% of my bankroll betting tennis, which is so pitiful, considering i dont follow tennis.  I only had $150 in my account the day of the national championship, and I put $75 on Clemson ML +205 and $75 on Jordan Leggett over 45 yards, but I thought the Cain was easy money, as well as Watson over 24 completions... I easily couldve doubled my balance on the national championship game, so instead of 8-9k I only have like $342 in my account....