Colorado State in Larmie Wyoming 7 PM Saturday Novemember 4th.
The Pick: Colorado State -2.5
Weather: 53 degrees/ Winds up to 30 MPH
Right now I think there's value in taking CSU:
I love betting the MW, and have been following both programs closely for the past decade. This is considered a rivalry game, I feel that Colorado State is the better team with the best player (Gallup), and the better QB.
The defensive edge surely goes to Wyoming, a unit lead by preseason MWC DPOY favorite S Andrew Wingard. Wingard, had two int's in Wyoming's 7 turnover's in their rout of New Mexico last week. The Wyoming defense is the MWC #1 pass defense 160 yards allowed per game, Tackles for loss (58) and sacks (21)
A key to the game will be the turnover margin, an area which Wyoming has to win to keep this game close. Wyoming has shown an ability to create turnovers, including 3 vs Oregon, 5 vs Utah St, and 7 vs New Mexico. In Colorado State's 3 losses, they lost the Turnover margin 8:3. Last week CSU turned the ball over 3 times to a mediocre Air Force defense.
Wyoming also has a very good home field advantage, playing in Laramie, Wyoming at the highest elevation in College football. The elevation seems to have an even greater impact on the opposing teams when it's cold, and it will be a chilly night. Wyoming has won 11 of their last 13 home games.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Colorado State in Larmie Wyoming 7 PM Saturday Novemember 4th.
The Pick: Colorado State -2.5
Weather: 53 degrees/ Winds up to 30 MPH
Right now I think there's value in taking CSU:
I love betting the MW, and have been following both programs closely for the past decade. This is considered a rivalry game, I feel that Colorado State is the better team with the best player (Gallup), and the better QB.
The defensive edge surely goes to Wyoming, a unit lead by preseason MWC DPOY favorite S Andrew Wingard. Wingard, had two int's in Wyoming's 7 turnover's in their rout of New Mexico last week. The Wyoming defense is the MWC #1 pass defense 160 yards allowed per game, Tackles for loss (58) and sacks (21)
A key to the game will be the turnover margin, an area which Wyoming has to win to keep this game close. Wyoming has shown an ability to create turnovers, including 3 vs Oregon, 5 vs Utah St, and 7 vs New Mexico. In Colorado State's 3 losses, they lost the Turnover margin 8:3. Last week CSU turned the ball over 3 times to a mediocre Air Force defense.
Wyoming also has a very good home field advantage, playing in Laramie, Wyoming at the highest elevation in College football. The elevation seems to have an even greater impact on the opposing teams when it's cold, and it will be a chilly night. Wyoming has won 11 of their last 13 home games.
Wyoming also has a very good home field advantage, playing in Laramie, Wyoming at the highest elevation in College football. The elevation seems to have an even greater impact on the opposing teams when it's cold, and it will be a chilly night. Wyoming has won 11 of their last 13 home games.
Even though Wyoming is a good home team, CSU is a very good road team, going 3-1 on the season with their only loss on the road at Alabama. Colorado State has also won 4 of the last 8 games in Laramie... Unlike the rest of CFB, Colorado State shouldnt have any problem with the elevation, because Colorado Springs plays at a very similar elevation. The schools are only about 50 minutes apart, so I'm sure their will be plenty of Rams backers in attendance. The travel is also very minimal.
I had 2 more pages written and my Fu**ing computer froze, so I might rewrite it again.
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Wyoming also has a very good home field advantage, playing in Laramie, Wyoming at the highest elevation in College football. The elevation seems to have an even greater impact on the opposing teams when it's cold, and it will be a chilly night. Wyoming has won 11 of their last 13 home games.
Even though Wyoming is a good home team, CSU is a very good road team, going 3-1 on the season with their only loss on the road at Alabama. Colorado State has also won 4 of the last 8 games in Laramie... Unlike the rest of CFB, Colorado State shouldnt have any problem with the elevation, because Colorado Springs plays at a very similar elevation. The schools are only about 50 minutes apart, so I'm sure their will be plenty of Rams backers in attendance. The travel is also very minimal.
I had 2 more pages written and my Fu**ing computer froze, so I might rewrite it again.
Hard to bet a road favorite that has given up 733 yards rushing the last 2 games to teams not as good as Wyoming. CSU is worn out, the value is definitely with the home dog with the way better defense.
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Hard to bet a road favorite that has given up 733 yards rushing the last 2 games to teams not as good as Wyoming. CSU is worn out, the value is definitely with the home dog with the way better defense.
Plus, the winds you predict up to 30mph negates CSU's passing advantage.
This game is looking more and more like a pass. I will have to say I've made a ton of money of CSU, but did take it in the shorts vs. AF>
I agree the winds and injury report are both a little concerning. I will likely wait until right before kickoff to see who is out, and what affect the wind will actually have on the game. Assuming the wind doesnt make passing impossible, I will be playing Colorado State. Until then it's probably worth a small play, or pass. There's absolutely no way I could back Wyoming though.
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Quote Originally Posted by Cooler999:
Plus, the winds you predict up to 30mph negates CSU's passing advantage.
This game is looking more and more like a pass. I will have to say I've made a ton of money of CSU, but did take it in the shorts vs. AF>
I agree the winds and injury report are both a little concerning. I will likely wait until right before kickoff to see who is out, and what affect the wind will actually have on the game. Assuming the wind doesnt make passing impossible, I will be playing Colorado State. Until then it's probably worth a small play, or pass. There's absolutely no way I could back Wyoming though.
I believe this line is much lower than it should be, which is a product of recency bias. To the casual observer, Colorado State looks like a terrible defense, and very mediocre offense, but I dont believe that to be the case...
On paper, it looks like Colorado State has a terrible defense, especially against the run. They may not be great, but you can completely disregard their last two games against Air Force, and New Mexico. Colorado State's rush defense had trouble stopping the triple option, but 31 rushes 56 yards 1.8 YPC, 29 rushes 63 yards 2.2 YPC, Hawaii had 135 yards on 21 carries for 7.1 YPC, but almost half of their yards came on a 4th and 1, which was good for 59 yards. CSU held Phillip Lindsay and a good Colorado rushing attack to 143 yards on 38 carries, which is 3.8 YPC...
I believe Colorado State is a much better defense than their stats suggest, and have confidence that they will be able to limit a very bad Wyoming offense. Wyoming's rushing offense is one of the worst in the country, averaging only 96 yards a game, which ranks 124th out of 130 qualified teams. Wyoming is just as bad when trying to throw the ball, which is why they're one of the worst offenses in the nation. Wyoming averages 266 yards of total offense per game, which is the 4th worst mark in the nation, only ahead of Kent State, Rutgers, and UTEP.
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I believe this line is much lower than it should be, which is a product of recency bias. To the casual observer, Colorado State looks like a terrible defense, and very mediocre offense, but I dont believe that to be the case...
On paper, it looks like Colorado State has a terrible defense, especially against the run. They may not be great, but you can completely disregard their last two games against Air Force, and New Mexico. Colorado State's rush defense had trouble stopping the triple option, but 31 rushes 56 yards 1.8 YPC, 29 rushes 63 yards 2.2 YPC, Hawaii had 135 yards on 21 carries for 7.1 YPC, but almost half of their yards came on a 4th and 1, which was good for 59 yards. CSU held Phillip Lindsay and a good Colorado rushing attack to 143 yards on 38 carries, which is 3.8 YPC...
I believe Colorado State is a much better defense than their stats suggest, and have confidence that they will be able to limit a very bad Wyoming offense. Wyoming's rushing offense is one of the worst in the country, averaging only 96 yards a game, which ranks 124th out of 130 qualified teams. Wyoming is just as bad when trying to throw the ball, which is why they're one of the worst offenses in the nation. Wyoming averages 266 yards of total offense per game, which is the 4th worst mark in the nation, only ahead of Kent State, Rutgers, and UTEP.
god dmmit i just spent another 2 hours doing a write up, and breaking down the match up, and my computer froze again... There's no way im going to do any more on this game, but I believe Colorado St is the right side, as long as the weather makes throwing the ball possible.
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god dmmit i just spent another 2 hours doing a write up, and breaking down the match up, and my computer froze again... There's no way im going to do any more on this game, but I believe Colorado St is the right side, as long as the weather makes throwing the ball possible.
this was one of my initial leans, they were able hang with Alabama on the road and covered the spread. Perfect buy low sell high after that monster wyoming win. The rams roll here
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this was one of my initial leans, they were able hang with Alabama on the road and covered the spread. Perfect buy low sell high after that monster wyoming win. The rams roll here
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