About Records, Units, Money Management and also BS!

 About records, units, money management, and aslo bullsh*t!

What follows is a long series of posts linked together because this dissertation cannot fit into one single post.
Please read them all before commenting 

Although I am very well read about sports betting, my actual results at achieving consistent profit are mediocre. This is why I track other successful handicappers in hopes I might learn tips from their skills to improve my own.  I do not "tail" anyone's bets, but I do watch them to hopefully confirm my own selections are on the right side, as I am sure many others do as well.

What is the goal of Sports Betting?
The goal of sports betting is to achieve profit. Period.

I have noted 6 distinct methods for bettors to attempt to achieve this goal:

1. Good handicapping! Achieving many more wins than losses.
2. Tailing bettors who are achieving significant, winning records.
3. Big hits! Betting much more on key events, to overcome mediocre W/L record
4. Huge volume of bets, using multiplication factor despite tiny profit margins
5. Moneyline betting mostly on dogs, typically ML sports (W/L record is irrelevent)
6. Arbitrage betting (W/L record is irrelevent)

On sports gambling forums the first listed "Good handicapping" is the most prominent. To achieve profit this way, consistently over time, requires good handicapping skill. The main focus of my discussion centers around this.

On internet sports forums we see hundreds of members "posting picks."

But there's no accountability on the internet; people can make up anything.

Let's be candid here: few of those are actually betting significant sums (despite boasts to the contrary) and even fewer are achieving sigificant profits (despite false boasts to the contrary)

Next

There's really only 2 things we observers can verify:

the posted pick   and   the result.

How much money one claims he wins is unverifiable to us.

And irrelevent anyway. Relevent to him, sure. But not to us!

Because it has no bearing whatsoever on his ability to pick more winners than losers consistently over time.

You go 5-5 on Sunday football but claim you bet "large" on the last one to win $10,000? HURRAY!  Good for you! Applause; backslaps!   

But your record is still 5-5, and meaningless to observers for any practical use.

On a sports betting forum, it is a man's RECORD (if winning) which becomes most relevent to observers. Not his chest beating claims of being way up in his betting accounts, or the lingerie models he employees as servants on his yacht from which he posts his glorious NFL picks as a benevolent favor to all the little people on the forum.

To be sure, imo, there is some value in the "writeups" which many offer with their picks. From time to time one can pick up some good tips to help improve their own skills. Short of that it's just enjoyable to read/discuss what one has to say about his pick on a game. It is afterall a "social media" platform for that purpose!

But ultimately where the goal of sports betting is to make profit, winning YTD records, particularly when repeated year after year, are most favorable. (I am not in this category)

If one has achieved a profitable endeavor, then:
1. Applause! Good for him
2. Many may choose to "tail" and possibly achieve at least some profit too
3. Others will watch hoping to learn techniques from his winning methods to improve their own handicapping (I am in this #3 category)

Next

In this section, what I am relating here are not my opinions.
They are a consensus view derived from my research.

I have read and bookmarked 56 articles (from knowledgeable longterm experienced gamblers, PROS, and tipsters) that discuss this topic, and there are many more but I believe 56 all saying close to the same thing is sufficient to make some key points.
You are encouraged to use Google search to uncover all these same articles and more to verify the same consensus views I found.

What is a unit?

A unit is defined as a percentage of your bankroll that becomes your usual bet size.

Units are used to help us track our own success but also for comparison to others, such as in contests.
More on this later.

From a review of those 56 web articles:

* All of them recommend making your unit size somewhere between 1% and 5% of your bankroll

*  Specifically for novices and/or conservative gamblers the large majority of these experienced, knowledgeable gamblers recommend 1% to 2%, with 1% being the most often recommended.

None of them suggest betting less than 1% BR per bet, nor more than 3% for the novice.

* For experienced gamblers,  who win more than they lose, 2% to 3% of entire bankroll is the most often recommended, with 2% being the consensus (mode)

* Avoiding the "risk of ruin" is very important so most of them suggest NEVER exceeding 5% of BR on any given bet.

* It is acknowledged by many, that very highly skilled gamblers will frequently wager from 3% to 5% BR, sometimes venturing over 5%

Next

KEY POINT #1:
Some of these knowledgeable gamblers state outright that the percentage figure is meant to apply PER UNIT. They acknowledge that many will often bet 2 units (double their usual bet size) on an event. In the case of a novice/conservative gambler who usually bets 1% BR, a 2 unit bet is now risking 2% of overall bankroll.

In almost all of the articles, that point is very clearly implied, as the assumption is always they are speaking of a single bet.
For example, MICHIGAN -3. One bet, one unit.
Unless stated otherwise, always assumed to be a 1 unit wager, by default.

KEY POINT #2:
If we risk more, we could win more, but could lose more.
Risking less means your losses are minimized, but so too are potential profits.
What's our goal? To minimize the risks from gambling? Or to make profit?

If your goal in gambling is to minimize your risks, then quit gambling, and your risks are zero!

If your goal is to achieve profit, you must use a method among the 6 previously mentioned, preferably acquiring handicapping skills, as well as risk enough that realized profits are sufficiently worth the time and effort. Betting chump change won't achieve that even if you're a winner, but caution must be exercised.

The novice bettor must only move forward to betting a higher percentage of his BR than 1% per unit after he has acquired the skills necessary to achieve significant, consistent, winning results. Failure to fully understand this typically leads most gamblers to lose large sums and eventually go bust.

NEXT

KEY POINT #3:

For the novice/conservative gambler, a one unit wager is risking 1% of his bankroll.

If he were to place a bet on 10 different games, he is then risking 10% of his total bankroll.

It follows logically then,  if he chooses to bet on ONE game but for 10 units, he also would be risking 10% of his entire bankroll.

But on one outcome, the "risk of ruin" is 10 x higher!!! 

Summary, for the novice/conservative gambler (ie, 1%):

* bet one unit on one game, 1% of BR at risk
* bet one unit on each of 10 games, 10% of BR is at risk
* bet 10 UNITS on one game, 10% of BR is also at risk 

(high "risk of ruin")

Summary for the skilled, consistent winning gambler (ie, 2% at least):

* bet one unit on one game, 2%+ of BR at risk
* bet one unit on each of 10 games, 20%+ of BR is at risk
* bet 10 UNITS on one game, 20%+ of BR is also at risk. (and high "risk of ruin")

However, in the case of the skilled, consistent winning gambler, his chances of losing are significantly lower than the novice bettor so he can safely afford to bet larger stakes.

  NEXT

What is your record?

W/L plus the result.    Full stop.

A record does not include how much money allegedly bet/won (or lost)

As stated above, not only are claims of alleged riches unverifiable, but more importantly, they are irrelevent to one's skills to pick more winners than losers.

NEXT

Real betting vs fraud

From my observations here in the main sports betting forums,
we have 5 distinct types of posters:

* He truly bets and in significant amounts!

* Truly bets but just small potatoes most of the time. (I am in this category until my skills improve)

* Doesn't usually bet, but posts "picks" to track his record and feel part of the sports betting fraternity/social network (nothing wrong with this!)

* Pretender! Bets small potatoes but "boasts" he bets HUGE and/or wins HUGE to impress others

* NON-betting "fantasy pick poster" fraud who claims he bets HUGE to impress others.

We have dudes in here who toss around "units" like confetti at a wedding

FRAUD!!!

WHY can that be FRAUD?

Think about it. 

From review of dozens and dozens of knowledgable, EXPERIENCED gamblers, PROS, and tipsters, even brand new beginners or the very conservative types with their wife looking over his shoulder, are advised to bet 1% of bankroll on a single ONE UNIT bet.

DO THE MATH!

Such a person, which likely includes many on the forums and MOST of the thousands of lurkers, betting the minimum 1% PER UNIT bet means he is limited to 100 UNITS IN PLAY at the same time, before his real account balance is ZERO (pending the results) and he can't make more bets!!!

Yet we see certain "chest thumpers" in here exceed this all the time! 

There are 8 posts above in my series so far.

Please read them all from the top.

Feel free to comment, or not. 

More to come in a little while.  Still working on it.

@zircon

 This is fantasy land for shitty gamblers ...just have fun with it

There might be 15-20 profitable posters on the entire site....remember only 3% of sports bettors actually profit...

This forum is mainly the 97% of losers lying to themselves...sad reality of gambling

I like it   ...  all seems right  , only thing is I think some get reeled in if they see someone supposedly betting thousands on a game and they think its fool proof, unless your getting plays from someone else, or getting from a service, there should always be a little reasoning as to why you like a play you are betting a grand on ....just my opinion   if asked and still do not want to give one, then maybe there isn't one ,  ...but I think everything you wrote is true and how it should be done  ....  gl 151

@zircon

??

* 100%

@RUM151

 Very good points!  Actually, RUM,  it is YOU and MacWestie1 and  Bridge1 and a couple others who come to mind immediately when I think of posters who take the time and effort to post some reasoning behind their picks, for various forums.  I would also encourage it, particularly supported a positive W/L.

Although ultimately a really good W/L almost says it all. 

you make some good points and i think anyone reading this, especially newer gamblers should reread it again.

what i think people fail to remember is that gambling doesnt have to be a dick measuring contest. someone might post that they play $1000 units and then other posters might feel like they arent "truly" gambling because they only play $50 or even $10 units. its shit like that that gets people into trouble quickly and puts them in a hole that they will have a real tough time climbing back out of. that is the whole point of units in the first place. its an aid to help others gauge the strength of a play and how much confidence that handicapper has in it. 

if everyone just posted dollar amounts, it does no good because everyones bankroll vastly varies. IMO posting an actual $ amount is just trying to get cool points from strangers on the internet. im not a big player by any means but i post picks to share because i have a level of confidence in them and want to help others win where i can. a 5 unit play for me might only be a 1/2 unit play for many others on this forum in terms of actual dollar value, but it doesnt matter because that's just a measure of my own confidence in the bet. 

Have been gambling for over 50 years, and it’s mostly all true what you have published about wagering and more so true about all the frauds and wannabes  looking for attention. I myself would much prefer to play one game at 10 to 20% of my entire bank roll over to play 10 games at 1 to 2% of my bank roll which for me is still only about $200 , now that I’m retired I have the time to handicap better games and it’s been successful as evidenced by survivor record of  100 games over even and currently on a 6 game winning streak, Also belong to nine sports books, shop for the best odds of the game I like, and also if any promos are offered which enhance the odds in my favor, “Whales” would never advertise their wager in a forum, so it is pure BS anyone here wagers the ridiculous amounts they claim to, and too many falsify point spreads in their favor or fudge their overall numbers. The best handicappers are also the most humblest 

@dubz4dummyz

LOL   

I love writeups and I don't even care if it always loses.  It is really the only thing that can guarantee for me if I believe the poster is being honest on who their actually betting.  Have seen so many times where someone would post a play and turns out they were really betting the opposite bc if the posted play wins you'd look like a hero and if the posted play loses you'll still like a hero in your bank acct. So its a win win.  So you can put that as #1 in the fraud category.  Also posters who start out keeping a record then start getting hammered losing every bet, will go on little run keep a record again and soon as the losing streak starts the records stop. I'd appreciate it better if they never kept a record in the first place.  Transparency means so much especially for those new to the site.  For those who always keep records win or lose you are appreciated you know who you are 

@zircon

  Bravo

Conventional scoring of records in forums

There are two methods of calculating.
The first is the overwhelmingly most popular.

1.  We lay the juice to win ONE unit.
Exception is in the case of plus money ML bets, we lay a unit to win even more!

2.  The other method is to always lay one unit to win whatever.
So if the juice is -150, you are not laying -150 to win +100. Instead you are laying -100 to win only +66.66
In effect, your $$ risked is less, therefore you will win less, or lose less.

The first method is so universally accepted because of its convenience, it is that which we will use.

Standard scoring of records

*All picks are scored per the scoring standard default: ONE UNIT each bet, with all claims of multiple units stripped away to level the playing field. This allows fair comparison of handicapping skills - not how much money a guy wants the gullible to believe he's betting.

While it is true that many skilled handicappers (assuming their W/L supports that contention) may also be skilled at identifying key events where much larger bets are very good value, a truly skilled handicapper suffers nothing by having all his picks counted per ONE UNIT when it also means preventing the fraudsters from fooling people to believe they are better than the skilled handicappers.

Another consideration is moneyline bets, either in ML sports like baseball or even in football and basketball. The scoring is still done the same way: lay the juice to win ONE UNIT (or lay lay one unit to win more on an underdog line) But the W/L portion of his record could be misleading, in either direction. The juice needs to be accounted for.

SUMMARY:
If a bettor achieved a 10-5 record betting all odds at -110
his record is properly expressed as 10-5 +4.5 units

If a diffferent bettor bet all his games at -200 ML odds
his record is properly expressed as 10-5 0.0 units

Despite the same W/L, the record of the first guy is clearly better.

 Keep in mind that all of us, me included, will often bet varying amounts on games. That's fine!  I do!  But for recordkeeping purposes it's all as if every bet is for one unit.

Your stupid signature says it all….you’re simply a Troll and have cost us numerous amazing and gifted Cappers to be banned or leave… your a total liability to this site and I won’t give you the respect and read the above nonsense.  

your agenda is to damage the integrity of all posters.  AGAIN this says it all…

"@zircon, I appreciate you brother! You're a GOOD dude, anyone can see that!" -Wizerguy

you really need to grow up…

JWoods

@zircon

  Excellent information to read & learn

The most interesting post out of them all was the fraud part, this site has become a joke. It used to be filled with respectable honest handicappers who are long gone, although they’re still a few good ones it’s filled with 90% garbage of people with their fictitious bets, game of the year every other play, made up point spreads which nobody seems to get except them, and altered records. All attention seekers, miss the days of Scalabrine and my all-time favorite Gucci Capper

@Kaname484

Some good points in there!   There are a few fellas in this and other forums who "man-up" win or lose  and track their records for all to see (all counted at one unit of course) 

For one thing, most in here are decent people and if they see a nice guy is being persisting to be transparent with a losing record they are typically very encouraging and supportive, since we all know what it's like.

What? That's idiotic after everything you just typed in posts 1-7....Give your head a shake

So you aren't a flat bettor...you have a scale...and if you have a scale you dont lie about it and call every play 1 unit....even though you might have bet 4 units and not 1 unit ...you either bet 1% of the bankroll or 4% of the bankroll...you cant move the goalposts and say "well it was 4% BR bet but for tracking I'll call it 1%"

A scale is fine if reasonable but you dont lie about your plays and count your 5 unit play as a 1 unit play for record keeping

You either keep an accurate record or you dont

Anything larger than a 4-10 scale is usually some one lying and anything over a multiplier of 2 is risky as now you need to also correctly assign which plays to bet more on which assumes more risk...how can you know for sure that the 10-unit play is for sure less risky than the 4-unit play...you can say "well my numbers tell me this play is less risky" but the event still needs to be played and you assume the risk

Betting is hard enough. Trying to assign bet sizes to the plays only increases the difficulty