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About Records, Units, Money Management and also BS!

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Prospect
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Posted: #26

Wtf is all of this.

Bro go out and get laid you’ve been indoors for too long.

 
MVP
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Posted: #27

Quote Originally Posted by zircon:

There's really only 2 things we observers can verify: the posted pick   and   the result. How much money one claims he wins is unverifiable to us. And irrelevent anyway. Relevent to him, sure. But not to us! Because it has no bearing whatsoever on his ability to pick more winners than losers consistently over time. You go 5-5 on Sunday football but claim you bet "large" on the last one to win $10,000? HURRAY!  Good for you! Applause; backslaps!    But your record is still 5-5, and meaningless to observers for any practical use.   On a sports betting forum, it is a man's RECORD (if winning) which becomes most relevent to observers. Not his chest beating claims of being way up in his betting accounts, or the lingerie models he employees as servants on his yacht from which he posts his glorious NFL picks as a benevolent favor to all the little people on the forum. To be sure, imo, there is some value in the "writeups" which many offer with their picks. From time to time one can pick up some good tips to help improve their own skills. Short of that it's just enjoyable to read/discuss what one has to say about his pick on a game. It is afterall a "social media" platform for that purpose! But ultimately where the goal of sports betting is to make profit, winning YTD records, particularly when repeated year after year, are most favorable. (I am not in this category) If one has achieved a profitable endeavor, then:1. Applause! Good for him2. Many may choose to "tail" and possibly achieve at least some profit too3. Others will watch hoping to learn techniques from his winning methods to improve their own handicapping (I am in this #3 category)   Next

goodpost

"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
 
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Posted: #28

In this section, what I am relating here are not my opinions.
an_lightThey are a consensus view derived from my research.

I have read and bookmarked 56 articles (from knowledgeable longterm experienced gamblers, PROS, and tipsters) that discuss this topic, and there are many more but I believe 56 all saying close to the same thing is sufficient to make some key points.
You are encouraged to use Google search to uncover all these same articles and more to verify the same consensus views I found.

 

What is a unit?

A unit is defined as a percentage of your bankroll that becomes your usual bet size.


Units are used to help us track our own success but also for comparison to others, such as in contests.
More on this later.

 

From a review of those 56 web articles:

* All of them recommend making your unit size somewhere between 1% and 5% of your bankroll

 

* an_light Specifically for novices and/or conservative gamblers the large majority of these experienced, knowledgeable gamblers recommend 1% to 2%,  with 1% being the most often recommended.

None of them suggest betting less than 1% BR per bet, nor more than 3% for the novice.

 

* For experienced gamblers, an_light who win more than they lose, 2% to 3% of entire bankroll is the most often recommended, with 2% being the consensus (mode)

 

* Avoiding the "risk of ruin" is very important so most of them suggest NEVER exceeding 5% of BR on any given bet.

 

* It is acknowledged by many, that very highly skilled gamblers will frequently wager from 3% to 5% BR, sometimes venturing over 5%

 

 

"@zircon, I appreciate you brother! You're a GOOD dude, anyone can see that!" -Wizerg
 
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Posted: #29

Quote Originally Posted by MWNII:

* 100%

Thank you peace_5

 

 

 

"@zircon, I appreciate you brother! You're a GOOD dude, anyone can see that!" -Wizerg
 
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Posted: #30

Quote Originally Posted by zircon:

Keep in mind that all of us, me included, will often bet varying amounts on games. That's fine!  I do!  But for recordkeeping purposes it's all as if every bet is for one unit.

 

What? That's idiotic after everything you just typed in posts 1-7....Give your head a shake

 

So you aren't a flat bettor...you have a scale...and if you have a scale you dont lie about it and call every play 1 unit....even though you might have bet 4 units and not 1 unit ...you either bet 1% of the bankroll or 4% of the bankroll...you cant move the goalposts and say "well it was 4% BR bet but for tracking I'll call it 1%"

 

A scale is fine if reasonable but you dont lie about your plays and count your 5 unit play as a 1 unit play for record keeping

 

You either keep an accurate record or you dont

 

Anything larger than a 4-10 scale is usually some one lying and anything over a multiplier of 2 is risky as now you need to also correctly assign which plays to bet more on which assumes more risk...how can you know for sure that the 10-unit play is for sure less risky than the 4-unit play...you can say "well my numbers tell me this play is less risky" but the event still needs to be played and you assume the risk

 

Betting is hard enough. Trying to assign bet sizes to the plays only increases the difficulty

 
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Posted: #31

Quote Originally Posted by WILLY_THA_LURCH:

you make some good points and i think anyone reading this, especially newer gamblers should reread it again.

@WILLY_THA_LURCH

peace_5 I hope it is of some value to some people, and by that I am including the hundreds or maybe thousand of internet lurkers who read the forums but are not members.   This is the #1 site and a lot of people read it.

"@zircon, I appreciate you brother! You're a GOOD dude, anyone can see that!" -Wizerg
 
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Posted: #32

Quote Originally Posted by zircon:

About records, units, money management, and aslo bullsh*t!   What follows is a long series of posts linked together because this dissertation cannot fit into one single post.Please read them all before commenting  Although I am very well read about sports betting, my actual results at achieving consistent profit are mediocre. This is why I track other successful handicappers in hopes I might learn tips from their skills to improve my own.  I do not "tail" anyone's bets, but I do watch them to hopefully confirm my own selections are on the right side, as I am sure many others do as well.   What is the goal of Sports Betting?The goal of sports betting is to achieve profit. Period. I have noted 6 distinct methods for bettors to attempt to achieve this goal: 1. Good handicapping! Achieving many more wins than losses. 2. Tailing bettors who are achieving significant, winning records.3. Big hits! Betting much more on key events, to overcome mediocre W/L record4. Huge volume of bets, using multiplication factor despite tiny profit margins5. Moneyline betting mostly on dogs, typically ML sports (W/L record is irrelevent)6. Arbitrage betting (W/L record is irrelevent)   On sports gambling forums the first listed "Good handicapping" is the most prominent. To achieve profit this way, consistently over time, requires good handicapping skill. The main focus of my discussion centers around this.   On internet sports forums we see hundreds of members "posting picks." But there's no accountability on the internet; people can make up anything. Let's be candid here: few of those are actually betting significant sums (despite boasts to the contrary) and even fewer are achieving sigificant profits (despite false boasts to the contrary)   Next

peace_5

 

 

"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
 
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Posted: #33

Quote Originally Posted by zircon:

In this section, what I am relating here are not my opinions.

They are a consensus view derived from my research.

I have read and bookmarked 56 articles (from knowledgeable longterm experienced gamblers, PROS, and tipsters) that discuss this topic, and there are many more but I believe 56 all saying close to the same thing is sufficient to make some key points. You are encouraged to use Google search to uncover all these same articles and more to verify the same consensus views I found.   

What is a unit?

A unit is defined as a percentage of your bankroll that becomes your usual bet size.


Units are used to help us track our own success but also for comparison to others, such as in contests.
More on this later.

 

From a review of those 56 web articles:

* All of them recommend making your unit size somewhere between 1% and 5% of your bankroll

 

* an_light Specifically for novices and/or conservative gamblers the large majority of these experienced, knowledgeable gamblers recommend 1% to 2%, with 1% being the most often recommended.

None of them suggest betting less than 1% BR per bet, nor more than 3% for the novice.

 

* For experienced gamblers, an_light who win more than they lose, 2% to 3% of entire bankroll is the most often recommended, with 2% being the consensus (mode)

 

* Avoiding the "risk of ruin" is very important so most of them suggest NEVER exceeding 5% of BR on any given bet.

 

* It is acknowledged by many, that very highly skilled gamblers will frequently wager from 3% to 5% BR, sometimes venturing over 5%

@zircon

 good stuff      ive heard the recommendation of 1-2% many times and it makes perfect sense for the newbies to gambling  

people go bust so easily when they over betan_cheers

 

 

 

 

"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
 
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Posted: #34

Quote Originally Posted by Cowbeagle:

Have been gambling for over 50 years,

and it’s mostly all true what you have published about wagering and

more so true about all the frauds and wannabes  looking for attention.

@Cowbeagle

50 years! an_speechless 

With that kind of experience I really appreciate your comment! peace_5

 

 

 

"@zircon, I appreciate you brother! You're a GOOD dude, anyone can see that!" -Wizerg
 
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Posted: #35

Quote Originally Posted by zircon:

There's really only 2 things we observers can verify: the posted pick   and   the result.

How much money one claims he wins is unverifiable to us. And irrelevent anyway. Relevent to him, sure. But not to us!

Because it has no bearing whatsoever on his ability to pick more winners than losers consistently over time. 

@zircon

 One of your strongest points I believe. win If two guys bet on the same side and win its wrong to think one guy has better handicapping skill just because he has a bigger betting account and bet $500 compared to other guy with a smaller betting account who bet $50

 

 

 
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Posted: #36

Quote Originally Posted by zircon:

Conventional scoring of records in forums There are two methods of calculating.The first is the overwhelmingly most popular. 1.  We lay the juice to win ONE unit. Exception is in the case of plus money ML bets, we lay a unit to win even more!   2.  The other method is to always lay one unit to win whatever.So if the juice is -150, you are not laying -150 to win +100. Instead you are laying -100 to win only +66.66In effect, your $$ risked is less, therefore you will win less, or lose less. The first method is so universally accepted because of its convenience, it is that which we will use.     Standard scoring of records *All picks are scored per the scoring standard default: ONE UNIT each bet, with all claims of multiple units stripped away to level the playing field. This allows fair comparison of handicapping skills - not how much money a guy wants the gullible to believe he's betting. While it is true that many skilled handicappers (assuming their W/L supports that contention) may also be skilled at identifying key events where much larger bets are very good value, a truly skilled handicapper suffers nothing by having all his picks counted per ONE UNIT when it also means preventing the fraudsters from fooling people to believe they are better than the skilled handicappers. Another consideration is moneyline bets, either in ML sports like baseball or even in football and basketball. The scoring is still done the same way: lay the juice to win ONE UNIT (or lay lay one unit to win more on an underdog line) But the W/L portion of his record could be misleading, in either direction. The juice needs to be accounted for. SUMMARY:If a bettor achieved a 10-5 record betting all odds at -110his record is properly expressed as 10-5 +4.5 units If a diffferent bettor bet all his games at -200 ML oddshis record is properly expressed as 10-5 0.0 units Despite the same W/L, the record of the first guy is clearly better.    Keep in mind that all of us, me included, will often bet varying amounts on games. That's fine!  I do!  But for recordkeeping purposes it's all as if every bet is for one unit.

goodthread

Theres one CBB guy who claims he's up like over +400 units yet he's just barely hitting over 53% win percentage lol an_roll_laugh

 

 

 
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Posted: #37

Quote Originally Posted by Timealker:

The most interesting post out of them all was the fraud part, this site has become a joke. It used to be filled with respectable honest handicappers who are long gone, although they’re still a few good ones it’s filled with 90% garbage of people with their fictitious bets, game of the year every other play, made up point spreads which nobody seems to get except them, and altered records. All attention seekers, miss the days of Scalabrine and my all-time favorite Gucci Capper

10 star

100 star

1000 star

Lock of the Year, Monster, Pay your Mortgage 

We get it man, just make the dang pick. 

 
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Posted: #38

Welcome to the free world…there are no rules, quit trying to make force them.  Freedom of speech is a wonderful thing.  We’re all wise enough to know who’s full of it and who’s genuine… 

 

you’re just here to get people arrested…I’ve seen it over and over again  an_punch  Can’t fake me out Mr. facade… what’s your record? And what’s your problem with WizerGuy that you’re hung up on years and years later Mr Hater?

Kick rocks with you’re “play by my rules or I’ll harass you until you do or leave” 

 

grow up - Jack Woods 

“I’m Winston Wolfe, I solve problems”
 
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Posted: #39

My 32 cents:

1) BUY at least one (up to three) proven models.  So many will drop $100 on a play, but not $49 a month for a quality model.  This is by fat the #1 method to become successful.

2) Set your own line.  Your model(s) say x team wins -10 and the book line is -2.  Move the line to -5 and go from -110 to +125 and your break even point goes from 52.4% to 44.4%.  Once you're better you routinely pick out +150 - +200 winners at a rate well above the B.E. point.

3) Do not bet more than 1 unit per play.  Too many mirror Billy and fail terribly.  It's about not having to dig out of a hole.

There is way more but that's enough for now.

 
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Posted: #40

Quote Originally Posted by zircon:

In this section, what I am relating here are not my opinions. They are a consensus view derived from my research. I have read and bookmarked 56 articles (from knowledgeable longterm experienced gamblers, PROS, and tipsters) that discuss this topic, and there are many more but I believe 56 all saying close to the same thing is sufficient to make some key points. You are encouraged to use Google search to uncover all these same articles and more to verify the same consensus views I found.   What is a unit? A unit is defined as a percentage of your bankroll that becomes your usual bet size.

 

* an_light Specifically for novices and/or conservative gamblers the large majority of these experienced, knowledgeable gamblers recommend 1% to 2%, with 1% being the most often recommended.

None of them suggest betting less than 1% BR per bet, nor more than 3% for the novice.

 peace_5Great point, zicron

Novice players should take heed of those experts advice.  Start and stay betting at 1% per unit until you prove to yourself you are a repeatable winner before you start increasing your bet size,  and I suggest then only in very small increments until you really get good at winning  

 

 

 
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Posted: #41

Quote Originally Posted by Kaname484:

I love writeups and I don't even care if it always loses.  It is really the only thing that can guarantee for me if I believe the poster is being honest on who their actually betting.  Have seen so many times where someone would post a play and turns out they were really betting the opposite bc if the posted play wins you'd look like a hero and if the posted play loses you'll still like a hero in your bank acct. So its a win win.  So you can put that as #1 in the fraud category. 

Seems to be a lost art nowadays

Win or lose it gives us something to discuss and share tips on the game, maybe for something that was missed or overlooked

 
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Posted: #42

@Zeus4par

 #40

Honestly for the first season (year) they should ghost wager for two reasons:

1) track performance in a sport

2) track discipline 

 

 
 
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Posted: #43

The 1-2 % in my opinion gets dicey imo as what is most people's bank roll:

50-65 % under 1k would be my guess.  Thus their unit bet would be $10 - $20.  500 bets a year at 55% = you're talking $250-$500 profit after losses / juice.

The return for time just is not there, but it has to be done.  

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