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Does SMU have a chance to win SU tomorrow?

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Posted: #26
Everyone has to remember do either of these team care about this bowl?  If Fresno St does, they win by 25+ and the score goes over, if not then its anyones game
 
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Posted: #27
Of course they care, otherwise they don't play the game.  This is sport man. It's not an eating contest moron
 
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Posted: #28
[Quote: Originally Posted by Zmoney21]

Carr is a super QB? 
 
maybe i am wrong  !!!!!!  mery  christmas  my friend
 
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Posted: #29
I'm now on SMU ml and +12 because of this thread. Fresno is not Alabama. They're in the Hawaii bowl for a reason...they haven't beaten anybody. Yes, SMU is even worse, but emotions matter in college football and the storyline favors the ponies. I think the motivation factor is in their favor.

41-31 SMU
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by Ktrain:

I wouldn't call losing at Oregon by 17 "getting waxed". That is pretty much what was expected of them at that point. 11-1 ATS says a lot to me about Fresno's capability. SMU is 1-4 ATS away from home. Carr is top 6 or 8 in the country in pass efficiency with something like 8.3 YPA. Fresno has an advantage in turnover margin as well. However, SMU isn't far behind in this category.

I think Fresno has a slight advantage in scheduling and performed better with their schedule(admittedly I don't have SOS in front of me). They hung with everyone, Oregon being the exception. SMU's best win was Tulsa in a game that was pretty meaningless for Tulsa and meant bowl eligibility for for SMU. Other than that, there isn't an impressive game for SMU this year.

I like Fresno here. I see a lot of reasons why they can cover this spread.


it was 35-6 at HT then the ducks said darn it. fresno got waxed - look at more than final score.
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by Ktrain:

I wouldn't call losing at Oregon by 17 "getting waxed". That is pretty much what was expected of them at that point. 11-1 ATS says a lot to me about Fresno's capability. SMU is 1-4 ATS away from home. Carr is top 6 or 8 in the country in pass efficiency with something like 8.3 YPA. Fresno has an advantage in turnover margin as well. However, SMU isn't far behind in this category.

I think Fresno has a slight advantage in scheduling and performed better with their schedule(admittedly I don't have SOS in front of me). They hung with everyone, Oregon being the exception. SMU's best win was Tulsa in a game that was pretty meaningless for Tulsa and meant bowl eligibility for for SMU. Other than that, there isn't an impressive game for SMU this year.

I like Fresno here. I see a lot of reasons why they can cover this spread.


how would you give fresno the advantage were the below .500 teams they played better than smu's below .500 teams. is the MWC better than C-USA?  i said no to both of those questions.
 
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Posted: #32
ponies don't stand a chance
 
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Posted: #33
Just look at the previous 3 Christmas Eve bowl games.  Dog has covered all 3, and in 2 of the cases, obliterated the favorite outright.  Not a good day to be on the public favorite when there are no other games to bet in ANY sport.
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by SideWithTheBook:

I'm now on SMU ml and +12 because of this thread. Fresno is not Alabama. They're in the Hawaii bowl for a reason...they haven't beaten anybody. Yes, SMU is even worse, but emotions matter in college football and the storyline favors the ponies. I think the motivation factor is in their favor.

41-31 SMU

You're on the SMU ML? Lol, I certainly hope you didn't put down much...
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by JMC1984:

Just look at the previous 3 Christmas Eve bowl games.  Dog has covered all 3, and in 2 of the cases, obliterated the favorite outright.  Not a good day to be on the public favorite when there are no other games to bet in ANY sport.



 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by TrebIecyde:

Anyone here watch SMU on a regular basis? Did they suck as much in their other games as they did in the Tulane game?
THEY SUCK..HOW THEY EVEN MAKE A BOWL?  FRESNO ST BY 2 SCORES.....
 
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Posted: #37
FRESNO ST IS MY FAVORITE COLLEGE TEAM,,DONT KNOW WHY IM FROM CINCY OHIO...I WATCHED THEM ALL SEASON AND IN MOST GAMES THEY CAN SCORE FAST, THERE DEF IS SUSPECT VS. BETTER RUNNING TEAMS ..I SEE FRESNO ST. STILL PUTTING UP 47_+  TONIGHT.... SMU IS SHITTY
 
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Posted: #38
Ok so Fresno got a back door cover at Oregon. They still went 10-1 ATS with the rest of their schedule. That's impressive in my opinion. They played similar competition to what SMU had and fared much better. SMU's most impressive win was against a Tulsa team that had absolutely nothing to play for that week. They kept TCU close and were destroyed by A&M and Baylor.

All the stats point to Fresno here and I don't think 12 is too much to lay here. This number should be higher IMO.
 
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Posted: #39

Quote Originally Posted by Lance1981:

Of course they care, otherwise they don't play the game.  This is sport man. It's not an eating contest moron

Lance how many bowl games have you watch my friend?  If they are more than three I would be surprised.  Every year there are at least a couple teams that play these inferior bowl games like they give two $hits about them.  I think that trancer makes a very fair point.  If Fresno didn't just accept this bowl for the trip to Hawaii over Christmas and actually want to win they probably cover and the game goes over.  However, if they are going to go through the motions, allow SMU to run the ball, control the clock and just expect to win late in the game, this game goes way under, SMU covers and possibily wins the game.  If you truely think that winning or losing the Hawaii Bowl is going to make ANY DIFFERENCE in their recruiting, alumni donations, or otherwise you are sorely mistaken.  This is why there are only really 8 games that mean anything and the rest is kind of a crap shoot.  BOL on whatever you play but don't be so dismissive.

 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by TrebIecyde:

It's never smart to bet the Over in bowl games. Defenses ALWAYS show up in bowl games, especially BCS games. 


Like I said the safest bet is the Fresno ML. Anything else is just gambling. I don't gamble.


Fresno ML is absolutely terrible value.  As for never going over in bowl games, did you watch the ULL v EC game the other day?  New Orleans bowl new record - 77 pts.
 
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Posted: #41
Playing on the better QB and stronger overall offense.  I think SMU will be forced to play from behind and that means Gilbert starts slinging interceptions.  Funny when you look at a lot of SMU's games, they lose the yardage battle quite often.  With the offense that Fresno brings to the table, this one won't be any different except that I highly doubt SMU gets the turn overs they would need to stay in this one.  GL with whatever you play! 
 
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Posted: #42
I'm a strong advocate of low risk plays for decent ROI % of 30-50%.

That being said I would trust a team like Bama at -400 ML but not Fresno.

Reduce the risk and parlay them with something.
 
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Posted: #43
Nope, just .4 units on SMU ml and 2 units at +12.
 
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Posted: #44
Good luck with Gilbert playing from behind and slinging picks all over the place!

Tulsa out gained SMU 590 to 300, same numbers tonight, Fresno up and down the field, just not the same outcome because this game means something to Fresno unlike the Tulsa game....
 
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Posted: #45
fresno st struggled with mobile QB's

Also are you people serious tulsa didnt care about the SMU game - use whatever logic you like to justify it but they def cared about that game. Its an in conference rivalry - its a texas school vs an oklahmoa school they battle for recruiting all the time.

Tulsa just turned the ball over 1 too many times in their territory.
I mean SMU blocked a punt insid ethe 10 then scored.
they were given the ball 2 times inside the 30 right after that by Tulsa.

5-18 on 3rd down and 3 turnovers was the story of that game not that Tulsa didn't care.
 
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Posted: #46
still not sure what do with this game - especially with everyone and their mom backing fresno on the only televised game - actually the only game played tonight. Will vegas give its self an early christmas gift - who knows - but i can't imagine that enough big money is backing SMU to offset the money coming on Fresno. I mean who would risk big money on this SMU thing. I might go in for a half unit on the ML thats about it though.
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by eliminat0r85:




don't mess with June Jones in Hawaii - also Fresno states stats are horribly inflated based on their shitty schedule.

like OMG fresno is soooo good they beat
2-9 weber state
1-11 colorado
4-8 col. st
4-8 wyoming
4-9 new mexico
3-9 hawaii
and 6-6 AF.

They're one quality win was against SDSU.
Nevada is barely over .500
they got waxed by oregon and BSU squeaked out a win - and we all know based on this year that BSU is not as good as they were ranked.

So all these great fesno state defense stats - they're toilet paper to me - because a lot of teams could make that schedule look stupid.

Some of SMU's schedule is not much better but they faced a few more teams that had good years.
I mean UCF
Tulsa
Texas A&M
Baylor
and TCU

So stats really don't mean anything to me in this game.

Coaching Edge i will give to June Jones.

DeRuyter is good but i'm more familiar with him on the defensive side then overall coach - verdict is still out on his head coaching ability. his record his first year with fresno doesnt mean garbage to me.

Agree fresno beat up and padded stats in alot of those games vs. five of the worst teams, if not THE worst teams in d-1. Smu is hardly a juggernaut and their qb really does blow, but i believe the spreads fishy and vegas knows something here. On paper this line shud be 15 or more, yet it opened at 11. 
 
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Posted: #48
I agree the Line is fishy and should have opened higher. However it has moved up so that says something as well. I don't know if it hits 14 at all but I would expect a bunch of SMU money at that point.

I respect the opinion o the SMU backers and their reasons. I just think Fresno is more likely to put forth a quality effort, especially under a first yer coach with a lot to prove, rather than show up, run through the motions, and party their whole time in Hawaii.

I have to admit, if I was playing in this bowl game on either team, I would be suspended and sent home for all the dumb stuff I would be doing and team rules I would be breaking.

BOL to everyone tonight! Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone. Enjoy!!!
 
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Posted: #49
Awful start for my Fresno bet. On a side note, is there any better name in CFB than "McJunkin"?
 
 
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Posted: #50
Well if this keeps up i'm sad i only put 50 on SMU ML.

Fresno looks pretty overrated to me right now. They might score right before the half though.
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