Dr. Strangelove Week 12

YTD: 47-33

I just eeked out a winning week going 5-4, but it could have been so much better. The running dogs went 9-4, but they would have gone 11-2 if OU and UCF hadn't had 7 turnovers between them. UCF had twice as many rushing yards as ASU and I still managed to lose by a half a point. I swear, I've lost a small fortune betting UCF games this season. That team dumbfounds me. I left quite a few on the table. I really should have played WV and Duke. There was no sound reason not to play them. Just kind of a stoopid week all around considering the opportunities lost. Sometimes it's easy to get caught up in the noise around these games and not listen to the numbers. Ole Miss was probably a good example of it. Their defense is the real deal even though they are dealing with a couple offensive injuries. And the media just drools over UGA.

Here the list of the running dogs this week. It's a big one with a fair share of ugly ones mixed in.

CMU +14.5 … every damn week!

WMU +8.5

UTSA +2

UCLA +3.5

Houston +2 (D)

La Tech +13.5 (D)

Pitt +10 …. My numbers just don’t like Clemson

Navy +6.5

Utah +10.5 (D)

FAU +2.5 (Better PPG D)

Sparty +3 (D)

UNCC +3

WVU +2.5 (D, H) … every freaking week Part II (but a trifecta team)

Troy +8

ODU +4 … every freaking week Part III

Southern Bama +8.5

Tennessee +9 (Better PPG D)

Cincinnati +8.5

New Mexico +13

Kansas +3.5

Plays this week so far:

Sparty +3

How CMU covered last week lol I have no clue. I bet against them and the stat board shows they should have been slaughtered. I was on UCF last week too. Stat board also shows they should have crushed ASU. Watched the 2H and  it’s like everything just happens so unluckily at the worst times. Any thoughts on Utah? 

Good luck Dr. S.  

47-33 

you best have a big cooperation booking your action. 

@DrStrangelove

Just a couple leans tonight on Buffalo -3.5 and CMU +14.5. CMU is one of my running dogs, but I've already lost a small fortune on them this season. The total for the game has gone from 47.5 on Sunday to 52.5 today. So it has completely lost it's value on the over after crossing a couple key numbers. 

@DrStrangelove

 

I’m going to pass on the game. Agree, not sure where their heads at after such a big rivalry game. Utah offense is a horrible watch though. After such a big win for BYU I wonder if this would be a letdown spot for them against KU. I know they still have everything to play for but still. KU looks like a nice running dog and way better than their record. BOL this weekend!

Sparty, Kansas, Utah, and Houston are the ones that jumped off the page to me when I first started looking over this week's games

Plays so far this week:

Sparty +3

Arkansas +14

Kansas +3

I was a little late to the punch with Arkansas and had to juice it some. Green is now listed a probable so it looks like he's playing.

BOL Doc! 

Plays so far this week:

Sparty +3

Arkansas +14

Kansas +3

UCLA +4.5 (-115)

Added the Bruins. Just been waiting to get a better line. Much like CU and Kansas, UCLA has improved quite a bit in this last month

@DrStrangelove

GL on your running dog wagers amigo!  I'm typically square but every season, about this time of year, I get my azz handed to me.  I'm tailin ya, at my own risk, of course!  

Hammer 'em!!    

Always love the approach and breakdowns Dr. S. 

BOL  

Nice insight Strange 

 New week! Good luck sir!

Just a lean tonight on Tulsa +17. Okay, maybe for some pizza and wings. The spread seems a little high to me for a middle of the road team to be giving on the road this late in the season. 

Seems to me like Houston would qualify. Better D too.

Doc - Don't bet against Texas...early game, memories of 2021 (I was in Fayetteville), Sarks 2nd game...superior talent...Texas will win by 3 TDs...Arkansas will play hard, and eventually Texas will roll and coer...Yes, I am a homer, and this will be my #1 play this week - Texas -13.5... 

@LonghornHoosier

Ouch.  I happen to agree with you on this one.  I'm going to cash my wager of Arky +14 out.  I was tailing someone that has a good record of taking dawgs but this one was hard for me to pull the trigger.  I'd guess a 42-20 type game.  Arky keeps it close 1H but the talent, like you said, will previal.  Looking forward to the reunion of Aggies vs. Horns this year!  It will be loud and hope it'll be close!!  

GL  on all your plays @DrStrangelove 

@LonghornHoosier

@BeeRich

Guys, Arky isn't a running dog, so they are strictly a value play for me. My number is -12, that's why I needed at least 14 to play the Hogs. I'm still not 100% sure how healthy Taylen Green is, but he is playing. I think the big question is how successful will the Horns D be in stopping Arky after coming off a bye week. So far for the most part, Texas has played a pretty weak bunch of offenses this season to pad their good defensive numbers: Messy St, OU, UF, Michigan, ULM. Arkansas should be a little stiffer test for them. But the Horns just might be this good. So it wouldn't be a big surprise to me either way.

@Boisestateand8

I've already got a half unit on Houston from Sunday, but I'm not crazy about the situational play with Zona coming off a bye week and UH coming off two straight home upsets.. My power ranking of Zona -3.5 doesn't love UH either. It's still tempting to make UH a play just based on Zona's 5 game losing streak. But a 3 win vs a 4 win team on a Friday night late game is pretty ugly. A lot of randomness to this one..