Dr. Strangelove Week 9

YTD: 31-22

Early plays for week 9:

CMU +13

North Texas +8.5

LSU +3

The Running Dogs

YTD: 33-30 (52.38%)

The PRD's went 8-8-1 this week. Luckily I was able to cherry pick a few winners that lined up well with my power ratings and situational plays. Still haven't seen that breakout week like I did a few times last season. It will happen, it's just a matter of getting better at finding the ACTUAL running dogs. Like for example Georgia was a running dog last night vs Texas. They just weren't my running dog. Hopefully, the more data that comes in the better these teams will be to spot. This was actually the biggest week for the PRD's. There were 25 of them and they went 17-8. We identified 7 of them and went 5-2. 6-2 if you count Georgia, which I ended up taking anyway. Unfortunately the MAC is killing me, 0-3 and I lost every game by one score. Including CMU who allowed 22 4th quarter points...damn! 

Here's how the PRD's break down:

Home Team: 2-3 … 10-12 (45.45%) YTD
Away Team: 6-5-1 … 23-18 (56.10%) YTD

Neutral Field: 0-0 … 0-0 (0%) YTD
With Better D: 1-2 … 17-8 (68%) YTD
With Better D at Home: 1-1 (trifecta teams) … 6-2 (75%) YTD
7 points or more: 3-1-1….. 15-4 (78.95%) YTD … DD 9-1 (90%) YTD (Those two double digit running dogs UCF and Virginia came thru for me this week. UCF could have won)

G5 v P4: 1-0 …. 4-1 (80%) YTD

G5 v G5: 1-4 -1… 10-13 (43.48%) YTD

P4 v P4: 6-4 … 19-16 (54.29%) YTD

ACTUAL Running Dogs: 20-10 (66.67%) YTD

Week # 8: 5-2

Not the ACTUAL Running Dogs: 13-20 (39.39%) YTD

Here is my list of running dogs for the week. I'll break down the better D, home field etc. later when I get all my stats together:

Cincinnati +4 Troy +7 Utah State +3 North Texas +8.5 Maryland +6 Auburn +3 Rice +6 CMU +13 UCF +2.5, Texas Tech +5.5 LSU +3 UTEP +7.5 UNC +5, Stanford +3, West Virginia +3...I got these lines this afternoon, so a few of them have probably changed.

If the ODU -2 and Nevada -2 lines flip they would be the running dogs.

@DrStrangelove

 This is a great thread but I don’t understand all of it. For the uneducated amongst us can I just wait to see your list of plays prior to game time (noting I might get a worse number)?

Cheers…..

Good luck Dr. S.  

Last week's official Sunday plays went 3-0-1. The problem is these Sunday plays tend to move with me and are bet down. For example, CMU is down to +12 from +13. And North Texas is down to +7.5 from +8.5. LSU is still +3...Sometimes these lines catch me napping and I don't get the good number. Utah State was going to be one of my Sunday plays, but they went from +3.5 to +2 in a blink of an eye and I didn't catch it in time, and I didn't want to pay -134 juice to get it to +3. Now I've got to wait and see if the line changes in my favor (I need at least +3). It can be to your advantage getting the best numbers with these running dogs. I had a day a couple weeks ago where I won because I took the early line. Turns out those two teams lost ATS with the closing line...Just a reminder, I play all of these running dogs for a half unit on Sunday night. And only put a full unit on the ones I post here as official plays.

BOL DR. S 

Doc, hope you win my friend 

GL

North Texas I lean 

Stanford +3

Starting to see this creep down under 3 so I thought I'd better get it now. Stanford is my only Trifecta Running Dog this week. 

@DrStrangelove

 Stanford 

Cincy

UCF

Utah st

lets go 4-0 on these for sure!

Any thoughts on Rutgers +14.5 @ USC

I just hit Submit on Rutgers because they are in a nice situation as favorites for most of the season. A recent huge disappointing no show loss 2 games ago.  Their top 3 backs average over 5 yards a pop and the lines maker had them favored over Wisconsin, UCLA, A small dog @Virg Tech and +7 @ Nebraska.  

@DrStrangelove

 Thank you for your time.  Rutgers hits my list this week with no bias against either team here. 

I'm seeing the UCF line starting to get away from me so I'm getting them while I can still get the plus side. UCF is a home running dog.

UCF +1.5

Plays so far:

CMU +13

North Texas +8.5

LSU +3

Stanford +3

UCF +1.5

@DrStrangelove

BOL Doc

Here are the running dogs with the best defenses and home teams: These aren't official plays, I'm just updating the list.

Week # 9:

UTEP +7.5 (W)
UNC +4
North Texas +8
CMU +12
Stanford +2.5 (D, H) Trifecta team
Texas Tech +5.5
UCF -2 (now favored)
Rice +6 (Better YPG D)
Maryland +4
West Virginia +3.5
Utah State -1.5 (now favored)
Troy +7 (D)
LSU +2.5
Auburn +2.5 …. My numbers love Auburn … 2-1 w/ them so far
Cincinnati +5.5 (Better PPG D)

Kennesaw St +27 for chicken wings and pizza tonight..

@DrStrangelove

 Great thread sir, and thank you for taking the vast amount of time to calculate and post your running dogs. Greatly appreciated. GL!

@DrStrangelove

 I truly appreciate your posts.l watched West Virginia last week. They are hurting on defense and their quarterback has to have some concerns too, playing like high school quarterback.  Terrible last week. Best of luck to you.  Prove me wrong!!!