What makes you like Duke? The fact they have whooped up on Troy, Elon, Kansas and Tulane? You say that Miami doesnt have any HFA, which is incorrect. EVERY team in college football has a HFA if the teams are similar (spread within +/-10). In Dukes 1st road game, at Troy, they win 34-17. Thats the same Troy team that lost 66-0 @ Georgia.
The Canes have already played @ LVille and @ Nebraska (night game to boot). Duke Johnson will be the best player on the field, and Brad Kaaya will be the main reason. Yep, he lost his 1st start at LVille, no big shocker. Since then, hes gotten better every game (offense scoring 34 ppg).
On the other side, Boone is a decent QB, but he doesnt have many weapons. He will target Crowder a lot for short gains. They dont have a RB thats scary, and thats what killed Miami thus far. I watched a good part of the Tulane game, and even thoughh Duke won 47-13, they were a couple plays away from being in a dogfight (safety, 2 pick 6's and other missed opportunities by the Wave).
So, you have Duke getting its first real test of the year, on the road, @ night. Miami has already seen bigger, faster and better....
I expect DJ to have a great game and Kaaya to do very well.I like Miami to win 38-23. If the Doookies can rise up, then so be it. I have lost plenty of bets before.
The reason I dont do writeups for every play is because it doesnt do that much good. Everyone has access to stats and trends. Everyone can see more games now. The hard part is putting all the pieces together and having your mind and instincts have a discussion. Often the brain will go with what its seen and heard, but the gut is always there (if you have that gambling trait), to warn you of impending danger. For example, getting a 4-0 team +7.....
The Maryland game and this game are actually quite different. Terps, after being pretty unimpressive so far, open as a small dog on the road vs a team that just beat a top 20 team....not surprising. Now, Miami, being 2-2 facing a 4-0 team that hasnt played anybody, opens at -4.....
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