Posted:
#1
35-36
I've written up plays for this Week 1 advocating Rutgers, Liberty, Utah State and Umass. I've delved into the numbers on UAB and Tulane.
Plays on the Rice Owls all over this forum.
Yes, I know what you are feeling.
Indigestion.
These teams are hard to stomach.
But if capping was only about betting on the dog, we'd all put Vegas out of business. We NEED to mix in some dependable favorites at favorable numbers along with our dog plays. Favorites can and do cover even at big numbers. This is obvious.
What favorite and what number jumped out to me on this entire slate?
Michigan State -17 over Bowling Green
Here are the reasons:
1. The Scarlet Letter Factor
Whenever a team is coming off an awful season, and better, of potentially historic proportions, we get a good number coming into Week 1. BUT ONLY WEEK 1. And then books adjust. MSU fits this mold with the season they had last year.
Why? Lines are all about public perception and the public remembers the previous season far beyond anything the team must do this year, and how they retooled in the offseason.
This is a good thing. Example: Rutgers +30.5 over Washington. The books gave us 30.5 3 months ago and now, less than a week before kick-off that number got gobbled up and it is down to +27. At a bare minimum, it shows we got value on Rutgers and now sharp bettors are realizing Rutgers can stay within this spread.
Onto MSU. MSU had it's WORST season since 1982, after coming off two straight Top 5 finishes. That is a VERY good thing because MSU burned a TON of bankrolls. That, outside of any metrics breaking down this spread, assures us that the -17 MSU is laying here is a number that is DEPRESSED because of last year. And if you take MSU you are getting value in such a number.
MSU has the Scarlet Letter of Losing stitched across its jersey right now. It will last a week. We need to take it while we can. But first, is it favorable given the team we are playing too?
2. Bowling Green? Is -17 a favorable number to lay?
I say yes, and there are several reasons.
A. Bowling Green finished the season with 3 wins.
So they have the opposite of the Scarlet Letter effect. Bettors got paid. And they did in in dominant fashion against Kent State 42-7 and @ Akron and Buffalo. Not wins to write home about but for a team like BG, a three game win streak against such teams is a notable success.
But there is something about those three wins that is curious. And one that will help us win this bet.
BG abandoned its passing game in favor of a ground attack in all three games. None of the three opponents was ready for this and BG's backfield (which has talent) was up to the task. They ran for 218, a whopping 420 and then 386.
Impressive.
But what's not impressive is this is NOT the Bowling Green identity. It certainly wasn't under Dino Babers in one of the most pass happy offenses in the nation.
But BG tried to come out with the same Babers identity in 2016 and got destroyed going 1-8.
Then they got back to the basics against a softer back end of the schedule and it proved successful.
So what is the point?
This is a passing team that thinks it has a NOW has a run first identity given its success at the end of last season. And it's all there for MSU to exploit on tape. If BG comes out with the same vanilla run first offense against MSU, MSU has the three games last year to study as a primer. If they come out passing, they could get bombed like they did to open the season last year. A team like MSU at home in their first game off the worst season since 1982 should dominate them either way.
Why is there a high probability BG will go run first and lose big?
0
Fu**er.
on your plays this year.
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