FCS Preview 2016

Hey guys,

There have been some real tough things happen very recently in my immediate family. I am going to try and get some ideas out by Thursday....I have a good feel on the big guys in FCS and the conferences that are players.... hope to have my playoff projections and conference picks.

I realize that the thread is not a huge draw, but there are a few guys on here that I enjoy a dialogue with on FCS football........FCS provides value. Congrats to all of the Charleston Southern backers vs NDSU... I suspected that 21 was a bold number, but did not pull the trigger. What a game, and congrats to the winners.

Hey Vern I sent you a friend request...Would appreciate if you would accept it....Really been looking for somebody to talk about FCS with.....Just got a few questions.

FCS Coach's Preseason Top 25, thoughts on the top 10:

1) NDSU    Looks to be the cream of the crop again....held on over CSU in the opener. NDSU will improve, QB Stick has all of the tools, and the D and O-lines are formidable. Key games: EWU, Illinois State, and @ UNI

2)SHSU     HC Keeler has big time depth this season. 33 lettermen and 16 starters are back. SHSU led the nation in total offense per game, 531.7. SHSU will be a player this season...key games: neutral vs Steven F Austin, home vs Mc Neese. Very soft schedule, look for SHSU to run the table.

3)Jax St      QB Eli Jenkins returns to run the offense as well as a bunch of talent and transfers on defense. Soft schedule, key games being vs Coastal Carolina and @ Liberty.

4)Richmond   16 returning starters and 3 preseason AA's. Richmond is looking to make some noise this season. Key games: vs James Madison, @ William and Mary

5)UNI         Northern Iowa will challenge NDSU for the Missouri valley this season. Coming off of a good playoff run and an impressive road playoff win over Portland State, they look to make a run this year. Keys: vs Montana,  @EWU, NDSU

6)Charleston Southern      CSU gained a ton of respect last Saturday vs NDSU. Whether or not they can rebound after such a physical game, which they should have won, remains to be seen. Keys: @ Coastal Carolina, @ Liberty

7)Chattanooga     UT Chatt is another potential sleeper. They took Jax to the mat last season in the playoffs, and are looking for more this year. Keys: @ Furman, vs The Citadel, vs Wofford

8)Illinois State      ISU had a disappointing 2015 playoff run, and loses some talent this season. RB Copprich and QB Roberson are gone, but experience is there in the trenches. Keys: @NDSU, SDSU, YSU

9)McNeese     McNeese is a player in the southland nearly every season. Don't know a whole lot about them, so I will skip to the keys: @SHSU, and @ Southeastern La

10)William & Mary   WM  is in the deep CAA, and that is either good or bad. Picked near the top of the CAA, WM plays a tough schedule. Keys:

11)James Madison

12) Portland State

13) Montana

14) South Dakota State

15) The Citadel

16) Colgate

17) Eastern Washington

18) Northern Arizona

19) Harvard

20)Fordham

21) North Dakota

22) Villanova

23) Southern Utah

24) Western Illinois

25) North Carolina A&T

Brief thoughts on 11-25...if I have any!

11)James Madison  Picked second in the CAA, new coach from the Citadel, and QB transfer Connor Mitch from South Carolina is vying for the starting job.

12) Portland State    National Coach of the year Barnum has dual threat QB Karesa returning with a decent defense. Games vs EWU and UM will likely determine conference winner.

13) Montana        Year 2 of the Stitt administration. QB Gustufson returns and should be much better running Stitt's offense. New DC comes in, and that side of the ball is a crapshoot. We will know a lot about the Griz after a week 2 trip to UNI.

14) South Dakota State   Always a well coached, solid squad. Lost the to the UM last year in the playoffs, but the QB was injured and they were behind early. SDSU is a potential sleeper and playoff team.

15) The Citadel   Who knows? They got hot late last season, beat Coastal Carolina in the playoffs and lost their coach to JMU. I have no idea what to expect here.

16) Colgate      Pretty high ranking for a team out of the Patriot. @ Richmond in week 3 will tell us if the Patriot can even remotely compete in FCS on a national level.

17) Eastern Washington  Whomever is responsible for EWU's schedule is smoking crack. Take a look at the first 4: @ Washington State, @ North Dakota State, vs Northern Iowa (UNI), @ Northern Arizona. Northern Arizona is the coaches pick to win the Big Sky. EWU has a great shot at being 0-4 and missing the playoffs for the 2nd straight season.

18) Northern Arizona    NA is getting respect from the writers and the coaches. BUT, like I always say, when perennial doormats of the Big Sky get respect, they flame out. key games will be vs EWU, vs UM, and @ Weber State.

19) Harvard  I guess Harvard was pretty good last year...but they don't go to the playoffs, so screw 'em.

20)Fordham          Admittedly, more homework is needed here.

21) North Dakota    They are ranked too high. Good running game, but the Big Sky will likely eat them up.

22) Villanova       No fun playing in the CAA this season.

23) Southern Utah     SU lost their coach to BYU (he took the special teams job) after a heck of a season and one of the worst playoff draws I have seen (@ SHSU).  Only lost by 2. We will see, but change of leadership can derail a program on the upswing.

24) Western Illinois  Tough league....tough to get to that 7 win mark and grab an at-large bid

25) North Carolina A&T     No clue. Any help here is much appreciated.

Playing at Liberty is no easy task...they have one heck of an atmosphere there...whipped up on the UM last season.

The rankings of the Big Sky teams are highly suspect. North Dakota has no business being ranked, Northern Arizona is going to have to prove to me they can win outside of the Walkup Skydome, Southern Utah was making strides but the HC situation may derail that, and EWU has a dunce making their schedule.

I don't see any elite teams in the Big Sky.....BUT, it is all about playoff draw to make a run at it......

I am probably in tail mode for the FBS games this week...I don't see a whole lot that I love, but Sept 10th has some dandies.

A few FCS/FBS games that are interesting, already mentioned above, current 5dimes lines (they will evolve when everyone releases them.) Bets aren't in, but the side I am looking at is in bold:

1) Montana State @ Idaho -13    I am way too late on this one...new HC for MSU, no Prukop at QB and a road game to boot...Idaho is the play here, But I cannot lay 13 when the number WAS 6.5. If you got Idaho -6.5 then congrats...should be a winner. If not, may be better to pass, which is what I am doing.

2) Richmond +12 @ UVA     Taking a look at Richmond here...I do not like the regional nature of this non conference matchup because there will be no real surprises, but UVA had better play well if they want to win this one. Holding out for Richmond +14 ish, or at least 10+ -110 not the -120 at 5dimes

3) UNI +9.5 @ ISU    This has dogfight potential......UNI is the right side to be on here, but need as many points as we can get.

4)Eastern Kentucky @ Purdue -16.5      We have gone on and on about Purdue being much improved this season...this is a pretty good spot to hang 40+...... I like Purdue to roll in this one.

When the cash officially goes down, I will post....hopefully by tomorrow the Conference rankings winners and playoff picks.

Well, #20 North Dakota already ate it....lost @ Stony Brook 13-9.

Also, Montana State showed up and played Idaho tough...that number spun up to Idaho -14.5...dodged a bullet on that one.

Here are the conference rankings:

1) Missouri Valley: By far the deepest league in the country. NDSU leads the pack, UNI will be tough, SDSU is perennially solid, ISU has talent in the trenches, and Youngstown is due to make a playoff run under Pelini. The MVC led the nation with 16 preseason All Americans. The returning starters for each of these teams is huge too.....14,14,13,15. Western Illinois returns 17 starters from an at large playoff team a year ago. Deep league.

2) CAA: Next to the MVC, the CAA has some contenders. Solid league, with Richmond, JMU, William + Mary, Villanova, Towson, and New Hampshire being playoff teams annually. Richmond looks to be the cream, with 16 returning starters and 3 preseason AA's. As a league, the CAA posts 13 pre season AA's second to the MVC.

3) Big Sky:  The Big Sky hasn't done much on the national stage since NDSU began their dominance in 2010. This year looks to be no different as there just isn't a clear cut powerhouse in the bunch. But it is fairly deep and should send upwards of 3 teams to the playoffs. UM and EWU are the traditional powers, but Northern Arizona, Portland State, and Weber St look to make some noise.  The Big Sky had 9 players selected as pre season AA's, but in a 13 team league that number is a little light.

4) Southland: National heavies SHSU and McNeese State are the keys here. Central Ark has cycled up a bit, coming off of a 7-4 season and returning 12 starters. Southland sends 7 preseason AA's, but SHSU is a Title contender.

5)Southern: Probably could have been ranked higher with 11 preseason AA's, but the unknowns surrounding the Citadel show a 1 deep league with a logjam for second. Chattanooga may be a real surprise this season. They played Jax St tough in the playoffs last season, have 14 starters back, and two First team AA's. Solid QB play could have them going deep. Wofford is a potential sleeper here with that tough option attack....17 returners off of a 5-6 team could be enough to get in to the playoffs.

6) Ohio Valley: It looks to be Jax St and the 8 dwarves. Led by 1st team AA QB Jenkins, this team has some questions but should win the OVC. only 9 starters return, and Jenkins had off season surgery on his labrum. Lots of questions, but a soft schedule....

7) Big South: Pretty easy to underrate this bunch. But, it could be a good league if Charleston Southern's performance in Fargo for the opener is a measuring stick. Liberty can make some noise with 14 returning starters if they can replace QB Woodrum.

8) Patriot: Colgate looks to be the cream here.....17 returning starters, preseason ranking, and QB Melville returning, this should be another trip to the playoffs for Colgate. FWIW the league did have 6 preseason AA's.

The REST: mix and match with the Northeast(Auto bid), SWAC, MEAC, Pioneer (auto bid), and Ivy.