FCS TITLE GAME

 NCAA Division I Championship • Jan. 9, 2016 •
 11 a.m. CT Toyota Stadium (20,500) • Frisco, Texas •
 

ESPN2 Anish Shroff, play-by-play Ahmad Brooks, analyst Quint Kessenich, sideline
  * low 40's...wind chill low 30's / 20 mph winds / rain earlier - slight chance game
line value: IMO....value is with JSU...to me line should be pick-em...or JSU even a slight favorite
   *Sagarin says NDSU -4'...Massey says 1/55

Just a few tidbits...everybody knows the story...NDSU going for 5th straight / winning 19 straight play-off games wtf
  *note : guesstimating spreads...NDSU was about 6-8 ATS TY (1-4 road)...JSU 10-4 or so...only loss to Auburn

NDSU is the home team (gold jerseys/green pants > 21-0)...and should have a 15,000 > 5,000 or so crowd edge

NDSU runs a pro-style west coast type O ...standard 4-3 D
  *JSU runs a run heavy Auburn style O...3-4 Bama style D

NDSU played the tougher schedule (Sagarin 135 > 167)

JSU av 41 pts/allows 19...NDSU 35/16
turnovers- JSU #29 / NDSU #39
JSU #2 O / #11 D...NDSU #26 O / #3 D
JSU #3 rush O / #16 rush D...NDSU #12 rush O / #7 rush D

TFL - JSU #4 / NDSU #95
sacks- JSU #14 / NDSU #45
  *allowed JSU #17 . NDSU #16

Both tough on 3rd (O & D)
 *RZ- JSU slight edge
 **4th down- JSU 21-28 / NDSU D allows 50%

NDSU return game maybe top reason they're here
  * JSU KOR D - #94  
  * JSU PR D - #38

****NDSU great punter...but kicker stinks (9-20 FG...missed 6 of last 7)......missed 9 of last 13 FG
  *JSU K - 17-27

AND:  NDSU QB has missed last 11 games
      JSU game 2 took Auburn to OT away (outgained Auburn)
      NDSU run D gave up 7.7/rush (245 yds) to Youngstown St...and 7.3/300 to N Iowa
      JSU DL/LB have 4-5 SEC transfers (Manning from Bama hurt > he's the guy that body-slammed the Mizzou player)

NDSU starts 8 Srs / 7 Jrs / 5 Soph / 2 Fr
JSU 12 Srs / 5 Jrs / 5 Soph
      
halftime/quarters
  *both O's MUCH better 2Q (both outscoring teams 190-55 or so)
   NDSU O&D balanced all 4
   JSU D slightly WORSE each Q

pace-  JSU runs a play every 24 sec or so / NDSU 31 sec

$  I haven't seen enough of either of these teams (esp JSU) to make a solid recommendation....but I like Jax St here...it appears they can match up in the trenches AND have more speed....I also like that Bison QB Wentz will start this game after being off 11 weeks (mistake?)....Bison tho with a HUGE crowd edge...and will be tough to beat...

Jax St +3
1Q under 10 very small
2Q over 14  "      "
  *1H under 27' not bad...JSU 1H maybe best...( I backed off > big stage may start slow)

BOL boys...............

BA, great stuff as always. I agree with your line value assessment. I did the same thing a few weeks ago; 5dimes came out about an hour after the JSU vs. SHSU game ended with Jacksonville St. +4 vs. NDSU. Jumped on it for the value / to establish a position. I thought this would settle closer to PK once Vegas opened their number. Also didn't see Wentz coming back, so seems like -2.5/-3 is where it will stay. Should be a great game.

TD

Awesome info here thanks.

Jax St should win here....if they don't let the Bison MOJO get to 'em......plus this is essentially a HOME game for NDSU making it a bit tougher...maybe justifying the line a bit....
  *Fargo flies Frisco mayor up for games.....surrounding cities' chamber of commerce actually promoted NDSU ....ignoring JSU >> locals make a ton of cash from NDSU fans...mostly bars ........it was 70 degrees here last week  .............

I thought Stick would start......Wentz 'available' if needed
        > advantage Jax St..........I would think
   *IF..... Wentz just comes out and lights it up here?.....wow go ahead and take my cash then ....

My HUNCH....is that JSU jumps out early.....Bison come back late....as Wentz slowly gets it back...plus JSU D has faded late
  *in fact I'm gonna add a small play just for grins NDSU 4Q....
            

there is no such thing..........

HALF-AZZ / one way .....emotional handicapping.....a favorite of most EVERY poster here....has a two-fold purpose:
  *to not reveal incompetence
  *to relieve pressure

A win/win.........by not really trying you always have that fall-back
  *"well if I tried I would win for SURE!".....plus you get to make fun of those that do......................COOL..........

I can't stand you know nothing p-u-s-s-i-e-s that populate this forum every bowl season..........

d1, bro get lost u prick. u aint here to help and that BS trash aint needed. a@@w...hipe

yup thats me.....

This Jacksonville State coach is an unbelievable box.

2-0 so far .....

hey D1..............

I'm assuming you're a chick since all you do is NAG....AFRAID to post any of this great knowledge...
  *why don't you post some pics?....I don't like WHITE trash types myself....but some of these boys do I'm sure......

At least bring the MEN some sandwiches...keep the beer cold .....

NDSU play-off MOJO scaring the helll outta JSU so far..........

BA-  2H ND St or do you see Jack St. making a game out of this?

Really disappointing how Jacksonville St has just fallen apart.

Whats the score?

since I've already got NDSU 4Q......small
  *I'll throw a bit on JSU 3Q....at pick-em.....only because it seems to 'fit'.........

BUT...Jax St seems to be playing scared here.....I have no idea if they will choose to FIGHT 2H........or continue to readily accept this azz-whoopin'...........

hard to know if they will lay down.

As my man warcameagle will attest......these boys can play.....
  *I don't think I would ASSume NDSU dominance continues

BUT.....I haven't watched them enough 2H....I don't think they have been behind all year...at Auburn up 10-6 at half it seems
  *NDSU falling apart 2H?.....probably unlikely

Alright BA, 9/17/16 ...... Iowa -9.5ish.  Maybe less. -7.5?

uh-oh................
  *time flies ?....means getting old man

Like the way you're thinkin'....
 *'should be' 6'......but maybe 7+
  *I'll take 7...Iowa off Iowa St > @ Rutgers next.....Bison off EWash...> bye next

Week 1 2016 maybe best in years.....
  *lines off top my pumpkin head....no haven't checked returning st

Clemson -3 at Auburn

Alabama  -13'  vs. USC
  *Cowboys Classic

Georgia vs UNC P
  *Chick-Fil-A Bowl.........gimme GEORGIA all freakin day

LSU  -2 at Wisconsin
  *Lambeau.......Les is great in this spot

UCLA at Texas A&M -2
  *WHO TF knows

Notre Dame  -5 at Texas
  *ditto.....lean Horns at 7

BYU at Arizona  -1
 
Oklahoma -5 at Houston
  *can't wait...line goes to 3 ?.....Sooners.

Rutgers at Wash  -17
  *hit it immediately (BO will give us < 17 betcha)

Louisiana Tech at Arkansas  12'.....rise to 18'+
  *HOGS all day here...........................

*not a murderers row.....but OU stepping up big (for B12 team)
with Houston and Ohio St

Sep. 3     at Houston

Sep. 10     ULM Warhawks

Sep. 17      Ohio State Buckeyes

Sep. 24     ---     Open Date     ---     ---

Oct. 1      at TCU Horned Frogs

Oct. 8          Texas Longhorns

Oct. 15     Kansas State Wildcats

Oct. 22     at Texas Tech Red Raiders

to start 5-2 would be pretty damm good.....TT in Lubbock is gonna be very tough as well

Yeah, that whole first weekend is MASSIVE. OU / Hou just one of a ton of fun games that weekend! 

Always like a good Bookie Assasin write up.

good man as always..................
  *you on Bama?

Bookie, who are you riding with tonite? Spread/total? Thanks brotha and BOL.