Some good points. The recieving core for UF is greatly diminished. This is the least impressive group of Gator recievers since the 2002 group led by OJ Smalls.
They have some guys who have a decent amount of game experience (Thompson, Cooper, Nelson) but none of these guys have ever been relied upon to make a play in a big situation.
Think back to the SEC championship game vs Bama. The offense had trouble moving the ball all game and Tim basically had to go out and create a win. Why? Percy was out. This year will basically be the same Percy less offense we saw in Atlanta. When you have a guy who is that explosive playing as a hybrid player in a spread offense it is almost impossible to stop. Not only because of the threat of what he could do but also the fact that the defense must account for him at all times and it opened up alot of big plays for other guys. This spread offense will not operate the way it has the past 3 seasons.
Plus the fact that UF running backs coach Kenny Carter is predicting that the running back by comitee group (Demps, Rainey, Moody, Gilislee) will set a Gator team record for rushing yards. Playing on the strenght of the D the Gators should be milking alot of clock with the running game this year.
Don't get me wrong. I love Tim Tebow. But with that said I believe he might be a tad over hyped. The verdict is still out, we will have to see how he preforms without Harvin who in my opinion is the greatest offensive Gator football player ever and should at least be in consideration as one of the all time offensive greats in CFB.
On the other hand, there are a few reasons that make me skeptical of your strategy.
-Florida scores and creates alot of great field position on Defense and special teams. look back at the really lopsided games from last year such as S Carolina and Kentucky. Big plays from the D and Special teams put up alot of early points which normally would not have been scored. If florida's avg starting field position is near mid field watch out they can light up the scoreboard.
-Also, Meyer has done a great job recruiting and he wants to get some of those young guys on the field. Watch for teams to score late against the 3rd team.
- On that same note, this is the year John Brantley has to get ready for next season. Once UF is comfortably ahead and Tim sits down Brantley will come in to get game reps. He is a pure drop back passer and Scott Loeffler is going to want to see him air it out some. This could cause UF to score more late points than expected.
-But the best reason not to bet the under or take the points with the opponets in Gator games this year is Urban's new contract. All gator Athletic programs, facilities, coaches salaries and evrything else that has anything to do with Gator sports is completely 100% privately funded from Gator Boosters. Bull Gators are a gambling bunch who like to take UF and the over. Urban will not want to dissapoint after they so generously rewarded him this off season. If you thought the late field goal against Miami was bad wait and see what a little over $4M a year can do to a scoreboard.