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FAU @ Navy Recap:
I was disappointed and surprised how the FAU/Navy played out last week. First of all I was surprised by how the game was adversely affected by high winds. I checked the weather forecast Friday night right before locking in my bet, and there was no indication that the game would be affected by high wind. The forecast was for basically perfect football weather.
The high wind caused FAU to play very conservatively which resulted in them chewing massive amounts of clock on every possession, most of which resulted in no points. That coupled with Navy's normal clock killing offense slowed the game down to a crawl. Navy really only had 3 scoring-potential possessions in the 2nd half. Navy went into clock killing mode on their 4th 2nd half possession to secure the win.
FAU's defense also played much better than I thought they would. Although Navy did real off 3 touchdowns and a field goal on consecutive possessions at one point, FAU did a great job of not giving up the big play. They also forced 2 punts and 3 field goal attempts. One of FAU's stops was when Navy had a 1st and goal on the 8, and triple option teams are typically very difficult to stop when they have 4 plays to gain less than 10 yards.
The outcome was very disappointing because of my high degree of confidence. Looking back on it I really don't think I would have done anything different based on the information I had going into the game.
Alabama @ LSU Recap:
My extreme confidence going into this game was rooted in my lack of confidence in LSU QB Zack Mettenberger. With absolutely no big-game experience, I really thought he would be rattled and make some mistakes. I thought that Mettenberger's inability to consistently make plays in the passing game would render LSU's offense one-dimensional much the same way they were in the previous two meetings.
On the other side of the ball, I was very confident that unlike the previous two meetings, Alabama would be able to find the end zone a few times. I predicted they would score 27 points. Had Alabama scored 27 points they would have covered, but would have sent the game over the total. I felt like without Morris Claiborne taking away half of the field that Alabama would be able to loosen up the run game with the pass.
LSU had a lot of success running the ball in the 1st half, but that really didn't bother me that much because I knew LSU would not score much being one-dimensional. With Alabama leading 14-3 at the half, and Saban being one of the best at making 2nd half adjustments, I was even more optimistic about the bet than I was before the game began.
The 2nd half obviously didn't play out like I envisioned. While Alabama's defense was able to make some corrections against the run, Mettenberger played with poise and made one incredibly accurate throws after another against usually very tight coverage, and usually on 3rd down. That turned the game on two fronts. By dominating time of possession, Alabama' offense got cold and out of sync, and of course the offensive domination led to two touchdowns and a 17-14 lead.
I fully understood the risks of betting against LSU at Death Valley at night, but even with a significant home field advantage, as good as any in the country, I still did not think Mettenberger would be able to lead LSU's offense to any touchdowns much less two. You have to give Mettenberger and LSU a ton of credit for how well they played. I know a lot of LSU fans and not one of them thought they would play this well. That's why they call it gambling I suppose.
What made last Saturday particularly disappointing was my overall confidence in my card. Rarely do I do so poorly when I'm as confident as I was. Hopefully I can turn things around this week.
I was disappointed and surprised how the FAU/Navy played out last week. First of all I was surprised by how the game was adversely affected by high winds. I checked the weather forecast Friday night right before locking in my bet, and there was no indication that the game would be affected by high wind. The forecast was for basically perfect football weather.
The high wind caused FAU to play very conservatively which resulted in them chewing massive amounts of clock on every possession, most of which resulted in no points. That coupled with Navy's normal clock killing offense slowed the game down to a crawl. Navy really only had 3 scoring-potential possessions in the 2nd half. Navy went into clock killing mode on their 4th 2nd half possession to secure the win.
FAU's defense also played much better than I thought they would. Although Navy did real off 3 touchdowns and a field goal on consecutive possessions at one point, FAU did a great job of not giving up the big play. They also forced 2 punts and 3 field goal attempts. One of FAU's stops was when Navy had a 1st and goal on the 8, and triple option teams are typically very difficult to stop when they have 4 plays to gain less than 10 yards.
The outcome was very disappointing because of my high degree of confidence. Looking back on it I really don't think I would have done anything different based on the information I had going into the game.
Alabama @ LSU Recap:
My extreme confidence going into this game was rooted in my lack of confidence in LSU QB Zack Mettenberger. With absolutely no big-game experience, I really thought he would be rattled and make some mistakes. I thought that Mettenberger's inability to consistently make plays in the passing game would render LSU's offense one-dimensional much the same way they were in the previous two meetings.
On the other side of the ball, I was very confident that unlike the previous two meetings, Alabama would be able to find the end zone a few times. I predicted they would score 27 points. Had Alabama scored 27 points they would have covered, but would have sent the game over the total. I felt like without Morris Claiborne taking away half of the field that Alabama would be able to loosen up the run game with the pass.
LSU had a lot of success running the ball in the 1st half, but that really didn't bother me that much because I knew LSU would not score much being one-dimensional. With Alabama leading 14-3 at the half, and Saban being one of the best at making 2nd half adjustments, I was even more optimistic about the bet than I was before the game began.
The 2nd half obviously didn't play out like I envisioned. While Alabama's defense was able to make some corrections against the run, Mettenberger played with poise and made one incredibly accurate throws after another against usually very tight coverage, and usually on 3rd down. That turned the game on two fronts. By dominating time of possession, Alabama' offense got cold and out of sync, and of course the offensive domination led to two touchdowns and a 17-14 lead.
I fully understood the risks of betting against LSU at Death Valley at night, but even with a significant home field advantage, as good as any in the country, I still did not think Mettenberger would be able to lead LSU's offense to any touchdowns much less two. You have to give Mettenberger and LSU a ton of credit for how well they played. I know a lot of LSU fans and not one of them thought they would play this well. That's why they call it gambling I suppose.
What made last Saturday particularly disappointing was my overall confidence in my card. Rarely do I do so poorly when I'm as confident as I was. Hopefully I can turn things around this week.
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How the hell can you not like Kayleigh Pearson??? 
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