*** Freak Pics *** (Week 5)

I think I can write a book on all the reasons why I love USF, but I'll try my best to keep it as succinct as possible.

Given that Wisconsin has been hit hard by the touts which has driven the line up from 33 to 34.5 at some houses, your question is a very legitimate one.  Heck, even Phil Steele predicts a 48-10 Wisconsin blowout.  Needless to say, I strongly disagree.

First of all, this is a classic look-ahead-to-conference-play game.  So ask yourself this question.  If Wisconsin builds a significant 2nd half lead against USF (which is very plausible) will Gary Anderson allow his starters to play late into the game to blow out USF by as many points possible, or will he pull his starters early to get ready for conference play the following week?  I think the answer is obvious.  Assuming Wisconsin is even capable of running up the score on USF (and I'm not at all convinced that they are), I see zero motivation for them to do so with the start of conference play looming on deck.

Moreover, who in the heck is Wisconsin to be laying 5 TDs to any respectable FBS football program?  Based on what?  They got completely steam rolled in the 4th quarter to a team that very well may be the worst team in the SEC West.  Then they were lined as 41-point favorites against Western Illinois against whom they only managed to rush for 169 yards on 39 attempts, for a very pedestrian 4.3 yards per carry.  Then, coming off of a bye week, they faced one of the worst rushing defenses in the history of organized football - Bowling Green - against whom they racked up a ridiculous 644 yards rushing on 60 carries.

So because Wisconsin's rushing attack steamrolled an atrocious Bowling Green run defense last week - a team they were only favored to beat by 25.5 points BTW - we are now to believe that they should be favored by 34 over a far better USF team in a classic look-ahead spot???  This is a prime example of reading waaaaaay too much into last week's results against a pathetic football team.

The current line is absurd.  So Bowling Green is a 25.5-point dog in a no-look-ahead situation, but USF is now a 34-point dog in a classc look-ahead spot???  Black please!!!  This line is at least 7-10 points too high IMO.

I'm am a huge Willie Taggart fan, and some of you may remember when Western Kentucky + the points and Western Kentucky ML were mainstays on my weekly card.  When the books gave a Willie Taggart coached Western Kentucky team points, I was waiting at the other end to scoop up the bling.

The one thing about a Willie Taggart coached team (Taggart is a Charlie Strong clone IMO) is they will fight you tooth and nail for 60 minutes.  Moreover, the strength of the USF team is their defensive front 4.  Here we have USF's defensive front 4 matched up a completely one-dimensional Wisconsin team against whom they match up very favorably with at the point of attack.  And the books are going to give me 33-35 points points???  Are you kidding me???  This is a no-brainer.

The scary part of this bet is not Wisconsin's rushing attack versus USF's rush defense, it is that USF's offense is completely inept.  Quite frankly, if USF had a competent offense, I would be laying a little money down on the ML.  But because they are so inept, that will put a lot more pressure on the defense which is why the defense will probably surrender 34-38 points in this game.  Honestly the only shot Wisconsin has of covering this bet is if their defense pitches a shutout, and I have no problem betting that won't happen.

Final score prediction:  Wisconsin 34, South Florida 13

Jimmy.

I think you have a nice card going this weekend. We are opposite on the Duke game, I think they may win outright, but we shall see. Wanted to get your thoughts on Maryland +3 ? BOL

Yes.  Anything under 7.

USC is probably the right side, but I just can't lay 10 points with that team.  USC's issue is that the sanctions are killing them right now.  The sanctions have left them anorexically thin across the board and their lack of depth is killing them!!!  They are a hard team to back right now.

I'm pretty confident they can.  They've had the bye week to iron out a lot of their offensive malfunctions, and their playing Kansas . . . so there's that.

Seriously though, this is a Texas team that will be breathing fire.  I think they put a pretty thorough beat down (by Texas standards) on the Jayhawks.  I look for a score of something like 27-6.

With that said, the UNDER should be ripe for the picking as well.  I just hate betting UNDER extremely low numbers like 41.5.  If I can get 21.5 (1st Half), I may bite.

Not really sure what you are referring to.  ODU is coming off of back-to-back wins against FBS opponents - the first two in school history - and tonight is the biggest home game in school history.

It should be a exciting high-scoring affair, but when the dust settles, I expect ODU to win by a fairly narrow margin.  I'll say 44-38 ODU.

I got the final around 41-20.....like the over as well

Quote Originally Posted by streaksavor:

Hey Jimmy, been tailing you for a while and really appreciate you posting. Your picks have saved my bankroll.

Stanford line dropped to 7. Are you picking that up? Is that a small play or something bigger? Thanks for your thoughts.

If 6.5 is within reach tomorrow, I'll probably jump on it.  I warn you however, I am generally terrible betting west coast teams.

That said, I love Stanford in a "must win" situation coming off of a bye playing a team that I largely perceive as a fraud.  I think Stanford exposes the Huskies.  I'm just not willing to lay 7 or more in what figures to be a low scoring game.

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

+ you didnt mention USF had a couple extra days to prepare since they played the Thursday night game

 

I got the final around 41-20.....like the over as well

That too.

I hope USF can score 20.

I don't have a strong opinion either way, but I would probably lean slightly the other way.

44-38 you say???? Whoaaaa.... currently 0-0 with about a minute remaining in the first quarter.   Hell of a long way from your 82 predicted points, let alone the posted total of 69. 

FVCK, ODU absolutely suck!!!!