Posted:
#1
ATS 11-9 (+5.45)
The Sagarin line for this game is Ohio st -5.22. I've said many times on this forum, his lines are usually dead on and closest to most spreads. When something is "off" at open, those games are worth capping imo. So we can see why early bettors hit Michigan, this reason and also laying 7/7.5 is crazy in games like this for Veteran bettors.
TOTAL 10-4-1 (+7.89)
ML 5-4 (+1.97)
PARLAY 0-3 (-1.5)
PROP 1-0 (+1.54)
OVERALL 27-20-1 +15.35 UNITS
This will be only the second fav that I will bet ATS this year. Lost on Miami Ohio-7.5 where a pic 6 was called back cause of penalty.
Let's start with this: Urban Meyer w/ Utah went 4-0 vs rivals. W/ Florida he went 17-0 vs rivals. W/ Ohio St he's 4-0 vs rival Michigan. This coach is the Beast Mode of coaches when playing in high leverage games. The biggest bet I've ever won in college was when Ohio St beat down Oregon and Chip Kelly in the Championship. I suggest to not step in Urban Meyer's way in big time games.
Where did the line OPEN?
5dimes opened-7.5, most others at -7. We see around 60% on Ohio St ATS and now the line has plummeted to 4.5. RLM, sharps on Michigan, fine I'm cool with that. But I do my own capping and I always try to find the real story. Or at least what I think is happening.
The Sagarin line for this game is Ohio st -5.22. I've said many times on this forum, his lines are usually dead on and closest to most spreads. When something is "off" at open, those games are worth capping imo. So we can see why early bettors hit Michigan, this reason and also laying 7/7.5 is crazy in games like this for Veteran bettors.
My system has Michigan 19, Ohio St 28. -9?! And the line opened -7? Well the books got a bunch of sharp $ in their pockets right now...OR, it's just bogus RLM! So many people are hip to how RLM and how the gambling world works. I started a thread on the college forum with my thoughts, here it is:
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=40&sub=102349644
I think they all ready figured the public money would be on Ohio St when opening the line. THIS IS JUST MY OPINION/THEORY HERE, make your own conclusions.
Angles:
Michigan's SOS is ranked at 51, Ohio St's is 23. And Ohio St has only 1 Senior one their team! That says a lot of where their recruiting and talent is at. How many people thought they were probably 1 year away from contending...
Michigan played only one note worthy non-conference team, Colorado at home, won 45-28. Ohio St beat 2 worthy non conference teams. OU on the road 45-24 and Tulsa at home 48-3.
I think that Michigan losing to Iowa was an eye opener(but give credit to Iowa, they have been balling) What was more eye opening to me was that they didn't bounce back too strong against Indiana, winning only 20-10. You's expect a team like Michigan to wipe the floor with IU after a tough beat like that.
Now on the contrary, you could say the Buckeye's barely beat Sparty the same week...C'mon, that was a true look ahead spot for them and the Spartans were playing the dream crusher role in a mini super bowl for them.
Michigan's most important player, QB Wilton Speight has a bad non throwing shoulder. He's not 100%
1. OHIO STATE BUCKEYE'S -4.5(-108) *1/.93 units
2. ML(-180) *1.80/1.0 units
Got a play on the Total as well, small write up coming up
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